Cyclone Fabien - Unusually intense May S.Hemisphere Indian Ocean cyclone

[Jo Farrow]

"DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE ECMWF SOLUTION APPEARS TO WASH OUT THE ALREADY INTENSE SYSTEM AND KEEPS THE TRACK HEADING TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF STILL INDICATES TC 19S WILL HAVE A SLOWER TRACK SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE LATER 96-120 TAUS. THE ALTERNATE GFS SCENARIO INDICATES A DEEPER TROUGH AND TURNS TC 19S SHARPLY TO THE EAST AT TAU 96, CREATING A NEAR BIFURCATION WITHIN THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS." JTWC

[matty40s]