Super Typhoon MAWAR - Guam

[matty40s]

First possible biggie of the season brewing in the Pacific/Phillipene Sea. Guam and the rest of the Mariana islands are in direct fire, whichever way it proceeds next.

 

 

Edited May 23 by Jo Farrow
Super typhoon status

[Jo Farrow]

US NWS page for GUAM 

Now a Super Typhoon and Guam right under the track 24th    Joint Region Marianas - "Super Typhoon Mawar is making landfall overnight and into tomorrow. 145mph+ sustained winds for long periods of time are anticipated".  The Governor has got an Emergency Declaration from President Biden. https://www.facebook.com/govlouguam

Joint Information Center - JIC Release No. 18

May 23, 2023, 7:30 p.m. (ChST)

From FB  SEEK IMMEDIATE SHELTER; Direct Hit Possible by Super Typhoon Mawar

The community is advised to SEEK IMMEDIATE SHELTER, if you have not done so already. The onset of damaging winds is expected this evening. Seek shelter now before it is unsafe to do so.

Mawar has been upgraded to a Super Typhoon. As of 5 p.m., Super Typhoon Mawar was located 11.9 degrees north latitude and 146.5 degrees east longitude, about 155 miles southeast of Guam and 230 miles south-southeast of Saipan. It is moving north at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.

Catastrophic Conditions Expected:

Based on the current forecast track, Super Typhoon Mawar is expected to make a direct hit or very near passage for Guam. There is a potential of a catastrophic and devastating event for Guam. Typhoon force winds are expected Wednesday morning, with peak conditions around midday.

Mawar’s current sustained winds are at 155 mph, which is a strong Category 4, low-end Category 5 storm, with potential to intensify. At this time, the timeline of the typhoon’s peak conditions on Guam is likely around midday Wednesday.

This is a very serious situation with steadily deteriorating conditions. The triple threat of Category 4 typhoon force winds, torrential rains, and life-threatening storm surge are all expected for Guam. Large storm surge and coastal impacts are likely to occur, particularly for coastal areas.

Emergency Shelter Update:

Residents whose homes are not safe against heavy winds or rains, or those that live in low-lying, flood-prone areas are advised to move to a designated emergency shelter.

M.U. Lujan Elementary School Emergency Shelter is closed, effective immediately. Residents in the area are advised to go immediately to any of the other shelters available. Emergency Shelter Numbers as of 7:00 p.m., Tuesday:

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[Jo Farrow]

 The radar seems to be down.

Sat https://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/ 

 

[johnholmes]

Looking really serious for the island; let us hope everyone heeded the emergency orders and moved to safe centres

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[Eagle Eye]

For a while now it's been ejecting PV filaments on the back edge and that's a sign of the hollowing of eyewall towers. Along with the MCV genesis around the eyewall and signs of supportive air inside the eye suggests that PV mixing has been supportive for intensification due to increased wind gradient for about a day now and that doesn't really look to be waning any time soon apart from the natural cycling of vorticity around the Typhoon along with convection spots changing slightly and that may occasionally weaken the processes increasing favourable PV mixing for symmetrical deepening processes which actually comes from the natural asymmetrical processes of PV towers just strong Tropical Storms have a robust way of making that donut look to the eye from this process. Generally though it's still favourable PV dynamics for continued intensity and potentially more intensification. Lost myself a bit there but been a while to be fair.

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

[matty40s]

15 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

For a while now it's been ejecting PV filaments on the back edge and that's a sign of the hollowing of eyewall towers. Along with the MCV genesis around the eyewall and signs of supportive air inside the eye suggests that PV mixing has been supportive for intensification due to increased wind gradient for about a day now and that doesn't really look to be waning any time soon apart from the natural cycling of vorticity around the Typhoon along with convection spots changing slightly and that may occasionally weaken the processes increasing favourable PV mixing for symmetrical deepening processes which actually comes from the natural asymmetrical processes of PV towers just strong Tropical Storms have a robust way of making that donut look to the eye from this process. Generally though it's still favourable PV dynamics for continued intensity and potentially more intensification. Lost myself a bit there but been a while to be fair.

Google translate...

It's getting stronger....

 

[matty40s]

Brutal..

 

Edited May 26 by matty40s

[matty40s]

Dry air...

 

[Atmogenic]

I wonder how many times we're going to hear "super typhoon" before they're just called "typhoon" due to climate change

[matty40s]

Now its Betty

 

[matty40s]