France and Northern Italy Extreme storm warning.

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

For the first time since 2014, a level 5 “EXTREME THUNDERSTORMS” has just been issued by KERAUNOS over central-eastern and north-eastern France. A stormy episode of rare intensity, characterized by exceptional damage potential, is expected in the next few hours

[matty40s]

ESTOFEX WARNING.

 

DISCUSSION

... S France through Switzerland, the Alpine range and S Germany ...

*** Very large hail and several swaths of severe to extremely severe wind gusts are forecast across the area ***

Models are in good agreement concerning the evolution of 1500+ J/kg of MLCAPE (locally even 3000+ J/kg) across S France, Massif Central, NW Switzerland, and N Italy thanks to the steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates. CAPE will overlap with strong vertical wind shear, which will increase towards the evening hours and will decrease from W to E. Across the Massif Central, models simulate around 25 m/s of 0-6 km and 20 m/s of 0-3 km shear. Initiation is expected in the afternoon hours due to the orographic lift as the front will still be far W. First storms will rapidly become supercells with almost certainty of large hail occurrence. Given substantial amounts of CAPE in the hail growth zone and rather straight and very long hodographs, 8+ cm hail may occur in the strongest storms.

The highest severe weather risk will be due to the severe to extremely severe wind gusts. High-resolution, convection-allowing, models consistently show one or more swaths of severe wind gusts across the area, including pockets of gusts exceeding 32+ m/s. The exact track with the most intense gusts is not clear. With the lack of strong linear forcing, the upscale growth of convection will depend on details such as storm mergers of individual supercells. Upscale growth will be supported by progressively deeper boundary layer towards E with Inverted-V profiles and high potential for strong cold pools.

While some of the models show an increase in the low-level SRH towards the evening hours across E France and SW Germany, the predominance of linear convective mode and high LCLs may hinder the tornado threat. This threat needs to be monitored especially if isolated supercells manage to persist into the late evening hours.

Lvl 3 is introduced for the area with the anticipated highest likelihood of extremely severe weather (very large hail in the W and extremely severe wind gusts in the E). Lvl 2 covers also parts of N Italy, where some of the models depict an evolution of supercells or another system with severe wind gusts in the late night to early morning hours. The severe weather threat would be very high given the degree of CAPE/shear overlap

 

European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

 

[Nick F]

Does look nasty later, estofex have a level 3 for central- E France, SW Germany and large parts of Switzerland. 

European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

Violent supercell thunderstorms forecast to develop over central-E France later, where up to 3000 j/kg CAPE modelled, merging into a severe MCS, even derecho, tracking east over Switzerland & SW Germany too 8cm hail & 70mph+ gusts forecast by Estofex.

Weirdly, a similar event happened over E France exactly 39 years ago on 11th July 1984 

Warning out for Switzerland for 'very violent' storms 

 

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Had I have flown back from Spain today, I would have been able to watch this materialise from The window. I managed to get a view of a few isolated cells over Switzerland yesterday from way back over in western France! Amazing how far you can see from a plane on a good clear day. 

Edited July 11, 2023 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[matty40s]

Near Macon...

Viewsurf.com - Le portail de Webcams HD de référence

WWW.VIEWSURF.COM

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Viewsurf, leader européen de la webcam HD touristique live et différée, trafic - France - Bourgogne - Mâcon - Autoroute A6 en périphérie de Mâcon Sud, vue orientée vers Paris

This is getting extremely active,  over a massive area.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Explosive development 

[matty40s]

carte itineraires | APRR AREA

VOYAGE.APRR.FR

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Calculez votre itinéraire et consultez les informations liées à votre trajet : travaux, aires d'autoroute, stations services, prix du péage et du carburant.

Webcam near Dijon

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by matty40s

[matty40s]

Live Cam Mount Cimone - Passo del Lupo | SkylineWebcams

WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM

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View over the area of Passo del Lupo with a view of Mount Cimone Live cam

 

[matty40s]

Live Cam Pianoro - Livergnano | SkylineWebcams

WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM

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Livergnano, panoramic view of Mount Adone Live cam

 

I'm there...tommmorow!!!!

[matty40s]

Imola just about to get it

View Mobotix camera in Italy, Imola

WWW.INSECAM.ORG

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Watch live cam located in Italy region Emilia-Romagna Imola.