2023 California/Pacific Northwest Fire Season

[WeatherArc]

Hey everyone, with the California and Pacific Northwest fire season seeming to be starting after a slow few months I've decided to make this topic for anyone interested. I'm very interested in fire weather (especially in this part of the world) and i'll try to post frequent updates on new starts or other wildfire related topics on here. 2020 and 2021 were the worst years on record for wildfires in California, with 2020s August complex fire becoming the largest ever recorded fire in California history and the 2021 Dixie fire becoming the largest non-complex (single start) fire in California's history. With the record rainfall and snowfall earlier this year will 2023 be a quiet year for fires? Or has the rainfall led to explosive vegetation and understory growth helping new starts reach the canopy quicker?  At the moment its difficult to say, but with last night's lightning storm over NorCal multiple new starts are beginning to show themselves. 

Will likely be a few active days for the folks at Cal Fire, National Forest Service and any local agencies.

Multiple Starts evident in NorCal, with further storms likely tonight they need to be watched, outflow winds can be a major problem in these scenarios. However, unlike 2020 california is not under a severe drought. 

Already seems to be some resource issues, Air Attack having airpower shortage problems due to how many new starts these thunderstorms have created. 

                                    

Seems like most if not all of NorCals air attack resources are on the Deep Fire, and from the camera views on the South Forks/Oregon mountain lookout I can see why, the thing looks like an absolute beast 

Last 30 mins of the Deep fire (this was at 1am) look at that Pileus on the Pyrocumulus at 6 seconds in-pretty indicative of explosive fire growth, may have to watch this one. 

Same camera but shows the growth this blaze has gone through in 3 hours. You can spot the moment the winds shift leading to large growth and the development of a pyrocumulus.

The fire is currently burning in the Trinity National Forest, I would expect medium (possibly long) ranged spotting as well as an extensive crown fire. Pretty remote at this point but i'd expect evacuation notices soon. 

 

The Slide Fire (only a few miles away from the Deep fire) also looks decently active, not as explosive though. Looks more of a floor/understory fire but I would expect the occasional torching of a few pine trees. 

I'll try to update later today. 

Edited August 16, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Another fire... 

Multiple new starts over the past 2 days, a few have been aided by t-storm winds and are now going through rapid growth, this looks like another fire that needs close monitoring. Very dangerous situation ongoing at the moment. The only good news is with all the fires NorCal has experienced these past 3 years there's lots of burn scars around, could help mitigate growth. 

The Slide fire is completely surrounded by recent fires, especially from the 2020 August Complex. It'll likely be slowed if not stopped by the lack of fuels. 

[WeatherArc]

The Deep fire was estimated at 800 acres last night, now 1,500. 

Around 80 new fires have been started across Northern California over the past 3 days due to dry thunderstorms. 

I believe the fires near the California-Oregon border are now collectively known as the August Lightning Complex Fire.  

The white areas show wildfire perimeters over the past 5 years, fires could have some room to grow up here-Especially in the West of the state. However, the theme over the past 24 hours with these fires is that although they have been putting up pyrocumulus the rate of growth is relatively slow, if this was 2020/22/23 its likely we would of had these fires explosively running, luckily it seems the rainfall over last winter has helped end the drought and lower the wildfire growth. 

The Smith River Complex in Del Norte County is estimated at around 7,000 acres. 

Edited August 17, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Smith River Complex making a slight run today, rough terrain hindering containment efforts right now. 

Per the 6 Rivers National Forest 

Fire Update: Smith River Complex
The Six Rivers National Forest has received approximately 150 lightning strikes across the forest since Tuesday evening, resulting in at least 27 confirmed fires. Thus far, there are 16 confirmed fires on the Gasquet Ranger District with an estimated acreage of 7,300 acres. Local resources have been focusing on identifying the locations of the fires and triaging suppression efforts on those posing the highest risk to life and property.

The fires are burning in extremely rugged terrain with limited access. A year of below average rainfall has the vegetation unseasonably dry, causing a high resistance to control. Despite these difficult conditions, ground and air resources have been engaged in full suppression efforts.

 

Large Smoke plume can be seen on cameras 

 

 

 

Calfire putting in lots of suppression effort today in the Trinity National Forest,  all of the planes on that screengrab above are tankers. 

 

Could make some decent work on a few of them. Temps are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s. The thing stopping fires from doing extensive runs right now is the humidity recovery overnight, some places are recording as much as a 40% recovery. This can give firecrews good opportunities to build containment lines, especially in the morning, however the problem with these lightning fires is how difficult they can be to access, most are in steep valleys deep in the wilderness that can take 6+ hours to hike to, without any major rainfall these fires will be with us for quite a while. 

Hurricane Hillary might be a source of heavy rainfall, it'll certainly aid SoCal but im not sure if the moisture can make it that far up the coast, one to watch. 

 

New Fire in Extreme Northern California, The Den fire is close to the Head fire and located near the town of Horse Creek, extreme fire behaviour already reported with high rate of spread. Have to see if the humidity recovery overnight can slow it down a little. Lots of smoke around so can't get a decent view with any of the cameras. That smoke also means air attack can't fly/aid ground crews. With so many new starts over the past 4 days Calfire and other agencies are starting to report resource shortages. 

I would expect a few of these fires to grow together and become a proper complex fire in the next few days. 

The area surrounding the Den Fire has burnt in the last 10 years as both the Beaver and Gap fires, could help somewhat slow growth? I'm not sure how severe these fires were (if they only burnt the forest floor or reached the canopy and cleared out acres of pine trees). Regardless 10 years is likely long enough for small brush and trees to grow back.

To the east is the 2022 McKinney fire burn scar, it wont burn through there. The area to the north however hasn't burned for well over 100 years, might have to keep an eye on that. 

 

 

 

Not related to these fires in California but an extremely serious situation is unfolding just north of the US border in British Columbia 

 

[WeatherArc]

Canada....

Extreme fire behaviour from the McDougall Creek fire. Long range spotting, extensive crown fires and multiple structures lost.

Awful situation, Canada's fire season just hasn't stopped this year. 

 

[matty40s]

 

[WeatherArc]

California Fire Update. 

The rainfall from Hillary seems to of missed most of the Fires in NorCal. 

Multiple fires still burning from last weeks dry t-storm outbreak up in the mountains and valleys. 

One fire of note is the SRF Smith River Complex, started by lightning on August 15th the fires have exploded in size to around 35,000 acres. This one could be with us for a while, specially due to how remote some of the fires are. Currently burning through the Six Rivers National Forest. Can't get a good look at it on cameras due to the thick smoke, will have to wait for the inversion layer to lift in the afternoon. 

Containment still at 0% with crews working to build bulldozer firelines, more of a  structure protection job than actually containing the fire right now. Some of the smaller fires are  actually completely unstaffed due to resource issues and remoteness. The largest fires of the complex, Holiday and Kelly exploded in size last night. 

 

 

 

This vid was from 4 days ago but shows the extreme behavior of this blaze. Long range spotting, major crown runs and large flame heights likely. 

Image from ZachsORoutdoors on twitter. 

Something else to note, some of these fires are burning in areas with very little fire history in the last 30+ years. 

Great vid from The Lookout on YT explaining the latest situation with the Smith River Complex. 

Fire will easily be with us for another week should the rain hold off, additionally there's very few natural obstacles for this fire or good places for firebreaks/retardant lines to be made. Apart from immediate structure protection in Gasquet I can see why crews are just letting it burn. 

Taken from google maps in front of the fireline. No natural barriers or vegetation breaks.  

 

Not all bad news though, a few of last weeks fires have been contained and nearly put out. Slide fire now at 75% containment. 

Additionally, although there are many fires across NorCal right now, none except for the Smith River Complex seem to be particularly exploding in size with most under 4,000 acres. 

Will try to update later tonight. 

Edited August 22, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Latest news from the Six River Complex per Six Rivers National Forest. 

Smith River Complex Update 8/22/23-- The Smith River Complex is approximately 40,000 acres with zero percent containment. Strong northeast winds affected the fire area overnight, but an inversion settled in, dampening fire behavior on most of the complex yesterday morning. Areas of the Kelly fire aligned with Stony Creek (north of Hwy 199) and Craigs Creek (south of Hwy 199) and made significant movement to the southwest growing approximately 2.5 miles in the early morning hours. The west side of the Kelly fire moved into the North Fork Smith Roadless Area. Today’s weather is expected to remain cooler, like Monday, allowing firefighters to focus their efforts on structure preparation along the highway 199 corridor. As the remnants of Hurricane Hillary exit the area, a warming trend will begin to settle in over the next few days. There are currently over 1150 total personnel on scene with many more expected to arrive in the coming days. On the Smith River Complex North, fire suppression efforts are progressing as resources put in dozer line from Monkey Creek Ridge to Hwy 199. Northwest Incident Management Team 13 is coordinating with local fire departments to create a coordinated structure protection plan in the event of significant fire behavior moving towards residences. Currently, in the Dwight Creek area, firefighters are conducting structure assessments. In Elk Creek, firefighters are providing structure preparation. The Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) around the Smith River Complex has been extended to the north, into Oregon. A TFR is established over incidents to provide for the safety of assigned aerial resources. When privately-owned drone incursions occur over the incident, all assigned aerial resources must land which stops the aerial suppression of the fire. These mandatory groundings of aircraft prevent firefighters from using all available resources to engage the fire. Remember, “If you fly, we can’t.”

[WeatherArc]

Six Rivers Complex under Red Flag Warning for today 

 

The fire is now at 52,000 acres with 0% containment. 

Crews still mostly working on structure protection as fire containment is pretty impossible right now. Although crews on the north and east sides of the fire are attempting to use old forestry roads to hold the fire. Additionally the north side of the fire was the only part with clear air yesterday, allowing for retardant and water drops. 

The largest fires of the complex (Holiday and Kelly) are now pinching the town of Gasquet from the north, south and east.  Dozer/retardant lines have been created in case one of them decides to make a run down the valley sides. 

The good news is that fire crews are doing an amazing job in containing this, additionally the weather has been helpful the past few days (all thanks to Hillary) temperatures in the mid 20s and high overnight humidity recoverys have helped slow growth. 

The Hurdy Gurdy, Island and Prescott fires have barely grown in three days and are now completely unstaffed after crews completed hand lines around them. 

Due to how remote and steep the terrain is around these fires are i doubt they will be restaffed and will likely just burn themselves out. 

The only problem right now is the Kelly fire has grown relatively quickly to the West, the terrain is making the creation of firebreaks pretty impossible and the remoteness/lack of roads means it takes firecrews hours to hike up to it. The fire will likely be with us for another week because of this.

This afternoon's thunderstorms may be a problem, it really depends on where convection develops but any storm outflow will cause an issue. 

[WeatherArc]

I make a post saying things are looking decent on the fire then it decides to explode in activity this afternoon 

The Holiday and Kelly fires look like they are gonna make a run down both sides of the valley

Fire outline wont show up but the recent thermal hotspots show the Holiday fire to the north and the Kelly fire to the south pushing down into the valley. Could allow for a big push to the West as the fire will be aided by dry valley winds. Gasquet continues to be in danger although yesterday's weather conditions allowed for crews to put in dozer, retardant and hand lines which should help protect the town.

Satellite shows developing thunderstorms/cumulonimbus along central California, the smoke from the Six Rivers Complex also apparent. I cant spot any pyrocumulus just yet but if this thing explodes in growth again today i would expect one, outflow from any thunderstorm in the region remains a critical issue. 

Images from just outside Gasquet as crews attempt to remove dead trees/other vegetation along highway 199

Large amount of tankers up over the Head fire (6,400 acres 14% containment) i'm guessing both the Holiday and Kelly fire are smoked in, restricting much needed drops. 

Holiday and Kelly continue to be the most active of the Six Rivers Complex, all other fires seem to be pinned down at the minute. Although those thunderstorms need watching, strong outflow can easily help fires jump firelines in terrain like this. 

Awful conditions to the West of the fires right now, can't even see the other side of the valley 

Edited August 25, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Well, that's not something i expected to see today 

All of our modern technology yet we are still using pack horses to move supplies, if it works don't fix it i guess. 

Edited August 25, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

I've been focused on Idalia but the Smith River Complex Fire is looking much better after a few days of cooler weather. Some more fire conducive weather is expected Weds/Thurs so i'll keep an eye on that for any increase in fire intensity. 

Acreage is around 70,000 while containment is now 6% 

Per Six Rivers National Forest

--Smith River Complex South Update 8/28/23-- Start date: Aug 15, 2023 Location: Six Rivers National Forest Cause: Lightning Acres: 70,716 Containment: 6% Personnel: 2,661 Gasquet, Calif., August 28, 2023. Crews continued to work hard under favorable weather conditions to contain as much of the Smith Rivers Complex as possible before an adverse weather pattern sets up for Wednesday and Thursday. Yesterday, the crews were able to increase containment lines along the Corral fire. The insertion of a helitack module to the Diamond fire was once again postponed due to poor visibility. Hotshot crews continued their burning operations on the control line that connects French Hill Road south to Highway 199. This operation is anticipated to be completed today. Once this line is in place it will limit the western spread of the Kelly fire towards the structures along French Hill Road. Burning operations also continued on the northside of Highway 199 between the 18N10 Road and Highway 199. Once this operation is connected to the dozer line it will keep the main fire from impacting Gasquet in the North Fork area. Although smoky conditions didn’t allow for much air support throughout the day, several fixed wing air tankers were able to place aerial retardant along the northeast flank of the Coon fire to keep it from crossing over to the eastern side of the 405, the planned control line for this portion of the fire. Today, favorable weather should persist and crews are optimistic they will be able to finish the firing operations on both sides of the highway. Engine crews are aggressively securing the fires edge that can be accessed with hose to prepare for a switch to an easterly wind pattern early Wednesday morning as a trough moves inland to our north. Winds will remain offshore moving smoke more westward than previous days along with bringing warmer temperatures. This offshore wind pattern weakens by Thursday as another Pacific trough begins to develop off the coast with a return to southwest flow, increased cloud cover and a chance for showers headed into Friday.

 

Fire crews doing an incredible job in keeping structures and lives protected.