2023 CET - all 12 months above 1961-1990 average?

[WYorksWeather]

With today's update taking the average to 5.9C, I'm sticking a fork in it. 99% chance of an above average month on the 1961-1990 average, reserving the 1% for if we randomly get a -10C Arctic blast out of nowhere that the models aren't seeing at the moment. In terms of the numbers, both averages get nudged up by about 0.05C, which in this case is not enough to change the predictions in one decimal.

Update based on data up to 20th December

Today's average: 5.9C (20 days)

10-year average for rest of December: (5.9 * 20 + 5.9 * 11) / 31 = 5.9C

30-year average:  (5.9 * 20 + 4.9 * 11) / 31 = 5.5C

Look ahead

To be honest I don't think there's a huge amount of point in looking ahead to the end of the month now - the suspense of whether we'll finish above average or not is all but gone. In terms of making a prediction, I think the CET will continue to climb through at least Christmas Eve, averaging 9C or 10C, then possibly the last week of the month being closer to average, perhaps near 5C. Based on that, the overall average will likely finish in the 6.0C to 6.5C range in my view, which is a significantly mild December, but not exceptionally so.

[WYorksWeather]

Now crossing the 6C barrier.

Update based on data up to 21st December

Today's average: 6.1C (21 days)

10-year average for rest of December: (6.1 * 21 + 5.9 * 10) / 31 = 6.0C

30-year average:  (6.1 * 21 + 4.9 * 10) / 31 = 5.7C

[WYorksWeather]

What a surprise, up we go again.

Update based on data up to 22nd December

Today's average: 6.3C (22 days)

10-year average for rest of December: (6.3 * 22 + 5.9 * 9) / 31 = 6.2C

30-year average:  (6.3 * 22 + 4.9 * 9) / 31 = 5.9C

[WYorksWeather]

This may well be my last post on the matter until after Christmas Day / Boxing Day - CET may not update, and I may be otherwise occupied! My prediction would be another rise once today goes into the stats, then CET likely to stay static or possibly fall slightly up to the end of the year. A finish in the 6s being most likely. A finish in the 5s would require an average of around 4.5C for the rest of the year, which is highly unlikely. An extremely warm 8.5C would be required for the CET average to exceed 7.0C.

Update based on data up to 23nd December

Today's average: 6.5C (23 days)

10-year average for rest of December: (6.5 * 23 + 5.9 * / 31 = 6.3C

30-year average:  (6.5 * 23 + 4.9 * / 31 = 6.1C

EDIT:

Forum help anyone - how do I stop my 8s turning into smileys with sunglasses?

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by WYorksWeather

[WYorksWeather]

Deliberately stayed away for a couple of days over Christmas (though I must confess to a bit of lurking). Suffice it to say that this is stone dead, unless a large asteroid hits the Earth tomorrow. Probably time for some reflections early in the New Year, on what will be another extraordinary year for annual CET once officially confirmed. Remarkably, and contrary to my earlier prediction of 6.0 to 6.5, a finish in the upper 6s looks likely, possibly even low 7s.

Update based on data up to 25th December

Today's average: 6.9C (25 days)

10-year average for rest of December: (6.9 * 25 + 5.9 * 6) / 31 = 6.7C

30-year average:  (6.9 * 25 + 4.9 * 6) / 31 = 6.5C

 

[reef]

Apart from Friday it's looking pretty mild in the CET zone aswell. The thing is, even a cooler day like today will end up mild on the figures as it'll be in double figures by 0900 tomorrow, so today's max temps will be recorded then.

It's very likely we'll finish close to 7C now.

Edited December 26, 2023 by reef

[WYorksWeather]

3 minutes ago, reef said:

Apart from Friday it's looking pretty mild in the CET zone aswell. The thing is, even a cooler day like today will end up mild on the figures as it'll be in double figures by 0900 tomorrow, so today's max temps will be recorded then.

It's very likely we'll finish close to 7C now.

What's striking about this year compared to 2022 is the distinct lack of any major cold spells. There were quite a few more smaller cool spells, and a major cold spell in the first half of December last year.

What we don't want to see (at least from a climatological point of view), but which I'm sure we'll see some year soon, is a year which combines the features of 2022 and 2023, featuring an extended summer from late May to mid-September, plus an exceptionally hot spell in high summer. For bonus points, add some late winter and spring warmth from 2020 and 2019.

[LetItSnow!]

34 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

What's striking about this year compared to 2022 is the distinct lack of any major cold spells. There were quite a few more smaller cool spells, and a major cold spell in the first half of December last year.

What we don't want to see (at least from a climatological point of view), but which I'm sure we'll see some year soon, is a year which combines the features of 2022 and 2023, featuring an extended summer from late May to mid-September, plus an exceptionally hot spell in high summer. For bonus points, add some late winter and spring warmth from 2020 and 2019.

As a coldie who loves rain and snow at heart, I actually prefer 2022 weatherwise by miles. There were duds, and that heatwave was scary - but as you said, there seemed to be spells of below average temperatures, but the warmer than average ones blew them out the park. For example: January 2022 down here probably would have come in slightly below average (with the modern average at least) if not for the exceptionally mild weather on the 1st and 2nd. There was frequent frosts and a lot of sunshine, so it felt wintery. The end of March and early April was cold and there was another cool spell at the end of May and early June and I remember June 5th, 2022 pouring with rain and stuck in the low to mid teens Celsius, some parts had a local record low max that day. The second half of September was the coldest since 2012 and December obviously the coldest since 2010 with snow laying a week here.

Meanwhile, 2023 had some chilly spells. The second half of January saw some extremely cold nights here considering no snow. There was cold weather in the north in March and then there was that freak day in August (also on the 5th like in 2022 funnily enough, IIRC) - but a lot of the time it has been persistently well above average, setting monthly records but never any heat spikes that tend to get the news and the hype. The highest temperature this year was "just" 33C. If 2023 had had the heat spikes of 2022 then we'd look at this year far more exceptionally. Even the "cold spring" was within the top 30 warmest springs ever I think. Perhaps a lot attributed to cloud cover and mild minima?

I'd be interested to see how 2023 will rank annually for minima and maxima. If anyone knows, drop it below! I'm assuming it'll be excelling in beating the annual minimum record but not beating the annual maximum record.

[WYorksWeather]

2 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

As a coldie who loves rain and snow at heart, I actually prefer 2022 weatherwise by miles. There were duds, and that heatwave was scary - but as you said, there seemed to be spells of below average temperatures, but the warmer than average ones blew them out the park. For example: January 2022 down here probably would have come in slightly below average (with the modern average at least) if not for the exceptionally mild weather on the 1st and 2nd. There was frequent frosts and a lot of sunshine, so it felt wintery. The end of March and early April was cold and there was another cool spell at the end of May and early June and I remember June 5th, 2022 pouring with rain and stuck in the low to mid teens Celsius, some parts had a local record low max that day. The second half of September was the coldest since 2012 and December obviously the coldest since 2010 with snow laying a week here.

Meanwhile, 2023 had some chilly spells. The second half of January saw some extremely cold nights here considering no snow. There was cold weather in the north in March and then there was that freak day in August (also on the 5th like in 2022 funnily enough, IIRC) - but a lot of the time it has been persistently well above average, setting monthly records but never any heat spikes that tend to get the news and the hype. The highest temperature this year was "just" 33C. If 2023 had had the heat spikes of 2022 then we'd look at this year far more exceptionally. Even the "cold spring" was within the top 30 warmest springs ever I think. Perhaps a lot attributed to cloud cover and mild minima?

I'd be interested to see how 2023 will rank annually for minima and maxima. If anyone knows, drop it below! I'm assuming it'll be excelling in beating the annual minimum record but not beating the annual maximum record.

Just having a look now at minima and maxima on the CET.

Minima

Minima is easy enough, the current anomaly is 1.36C, the highest ever is 1.37C, we only need minima to average around 4C to the end of the year to break it, which should be trivial. In actual values, to one decimal place, the finish for 2023 will likely be a third year at 7.2C, but beating 2006 and 2014 in two decimals. We would need to finish at 1.40C to round to 7.3C, so that almost certainly won't happen.

The fourth highest, incidentally, is 2022, so still quite a strong year on minima.

Maxima

For maxima, 2022 absolutely destroyed the previous record with an anomaly of 2.22C, resulting in a final value of 15.3C. For reference, the previous highest was 14.8C in 2003 (tied in one decimal with 2014).

The current maxima anomaly is 1.85C. The relevant normal for December is 7.2C, so assuming we average 10C to the end of the year, that should be good for another couple of hundredths on the annual. The final value will round to either 14.9C or 15.0C in one decimal, so a clear second place.

Summary

So assessing the year overall, despite the large amounts of cloud and rain, it really doesn't have a huge bias towards minima over maxima. Still well above average in maxima, but probably at the wrong times of the year, with below average maxima even on 1961-1990 in July, albeit only just by 0.2C. One of the most notable features this year has been mild/warm rain, which has also held up the maxima. I remember lots of comment on this at the time, a lot of the wet/windy dross in the summer was associated with temperatures around 17-20C rather than the more typical 14-17C, or even lower, that was seen in similar patterns in years gone by. For even such an awful July to average maxima of 20.2C is quite surprising when you consider the prevailing weather patterns.

 

[SqueakheartLW]

20 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

Just having a look now at minima and maxima on the CET.

Minima

Minima is easy enough, the current anomaly is 1.36C, the highest ever is 1.37C, we only need minima to average around 4C to the end of the year to break it, which should be trivial. In actual values, to one decimal place, the finish for 2023 will likely be a third year at 7.2C, but beating 2006 and 2014 in two decimals. We would need to finish at 1.40C to round to 7.3C, so that almost certainly won't happen.

The fourth highest, incidentally, is 2022, so still quite a strong year on minima.

Maxima

For maxima, 2022 absolutely destroyed the previous record with an anomaly of 2.22C, resulting in a final value of 15.3C. For reference, the previous highest was 14.8C in 2003 (tied in one decimal with 2014).

The current maxima anomaly is 1.85C. The relevant normal for December is 7.2C, so assuming we average 10C to the end of the year, that should be good for another couple of hundredths on the annual. The final value will round to either 14.9C or 15.0C in one decimal, so a clear second place.

Summary

So assessing the year overall, despite the large amounts of cloud and rain, it really doesn't have a huge bias towards minima over maxima. Still well above average in maxima, but probably at the wrong times of the year, with below average maxima even on 1961-1990 in July, albeit only just by 0.2C. One of the most notable features this year has been mild/warm rain, which has also held up the maxima. I remember lots of comment on this at the time, a lot of the wet/windy dross in the summer was associated with temperatures around 17-20C rather than the more typical 14-17C, or even lower, that was seen in similar patterns in years gone by. For even such an awful July to average maxima of 20.2C is quite surprising when you consider the prevailing weather patterns.

 

There has been a lot more Atlantic weather in 2023 and what has been notable for this year is how warm the Atlantic is so when we got the westerly dominated July and August it seemed cool but in fact wasn't really that cool at all. I think it is the SSTA's that have contributed a lot to 2023 somehow ending up a record breaker in it's own right even with no real stand out freak daily minimums or maximums, just persistently above average really all year.

Despite nothing that notable except June and September for monthly CET's it looks dead certain now we will see another 11C CET year straight after our first one last year and it looks like we won't be that far off last year's annual mean CET value either, within a few hundredths Celsius.

Predicted annual mean = 11.090C (subject to very small changes depending on model output)

2022 annual mean = 11.149C (2023 predicted to be only -0.059C below this at present)