Create an ideal weather year (with conditions)

[Summer8906]

We've had one of these in the past I think but I'd like to attach some specific conditions to prevent anyone saying "snowy winter, hot summer" or "mild winter, cool summer" (depending on preference). Basically, the year has to contain a significant amount of weather which is less than ideal for your own personal preference.

So the rules are:

1. Each winter month (Dec-Feb) must contain one mild week and one cold week.

2. Each summer month (Jun-Aug) must contain one hot week and one cool week.

3. Ten of the twelve months must contain one unsettled week, either frontal rain or widespread heavy showers (precipitation as rain, not snow) and one dry week. So you're allowed two months of very little rain, and/or near-constant rain.

4. Each month from Oct to Feb inclusive must have one week of stormy weather with significant wind events (unless the month is one of your "dry exemptions" from point 3), and one week of flat calm (unless the month is one of your "wet exemptions" from point 3).

5. No month can have a mean maximum more than 3C above or below 1981-2010 mean maxima.

6. The year's overall mean max must be within 1C of the 1981-2010 value, so no notably warm nor notably cold years.

So here's my attempt (part 1, Jan-April):

JANUARY:

Starts almost identical to Jan 1995 with a cold northerly, bright weather and coastal wintry showers on New Year's Day. An Atlantic high moves in producing four days of bright sunshine, severe night frosts and temps a little below normal. The final two days of the first week become foggy. Mean max for first week 4C.

The second week topples the Atlantic high though pressure remains high over the south. This is a dry, cloudy and mild week with little wind. Mean max in the south as high as 12C.

The third week features the jetstream heading south but also now aligned on a NW-SE direction. This is a wet week with three or four active lows, and strong winds, stormy at times, as the lows pass through. However the air behind each low is rather cold with some showers wintry. Cold Pm air is balanced by mild Tm air giving a very average mean max in the south for week three of 7C. Some frosty nights between the lows.

The fourth week shows a pattern change behind the last low of the sequence, which dives into Continental Europe producing a north-to-northeasterly. Air is cold and unstable with snow showers on eastern coasts, penetrating inland at times with troughs. A cold week with a 3C mean max in the south.

The final three days feature an even colder easterly developing and a cold pool moving west produces a longer spell of snow in the south, with a covering. Mean max temps now hovering around 1C.

Mean January max: ((4x7) + (12x7) + (7x7) + (3x7) + (1x3) / 31) = just under 6C, well within criterion 5. This shows that you can get an interesting and wintry January without it having to be really cold.

FEBRUARY:

One of my two "dry exemptions".

A month of two halves. The first half has a persistent very cold easterly, with lying snow still on the ground from the end of January. The opening 4 days are notably cold with temps hovering around zero, it then becomes a little less cold towards the end of the first week with temps approaching 5C partly melting the initial snow. However a new shot of cold air arrives from the east on the 8th, and at the same time a low tracking from Biscay to France attempts to push up, with only partial success, producing an area of heavy snow over the south with blizzards before retreating again. Another three days of very cold temps around zero follow, but on the 11th or so the easterly slackens a little and the high centres over the UK. Day temps increase a little to around 4 or 5C though still with severe night frosts. Mean max for first half of month just 2.5C.

By the 15th the high heads further south and warmer air moves in around the top of the high. A fairly rapid thaw ensues though it remains dry, and temps are initially only around 8C due to the lying snow.  By the 17th a cold front, producing some light rain, brings in Atlantic-sourced air from the WNW within the high pressure producing slightly milder than average days but still with frosty nights. The high then heads east, however, and brings in increasingly mild southeasterlies, still with chilly nights. By the end of week 3 max temps are around 12C, and the mean max for week 3 is around 10C.

The fourth week moves the high still further east though the UK remains in its circulation. Southerlies dominate producing sunny conditions with very mild temps by day, averaging around 15C in the south. Nights are still somewhat cold. Nonetheless it appears that spring has arrived.

Mean max for whole month 7.5C, with 2.5 for the first half and 12.5 for the second, so very average overall.

MARCH:

February's high moves still further east on the opening days, pumping up a very warm airmass from the Sahara and resulting in even higher temperatures, maxing at 21C on the 2nd somewhere in the SE. However a cold front is now moving in from the WNW and this produces a spell of rain on the 3rd. This clears to a showery and rather cold WNW-ly airmass, with hail showers and sleet at high levels. From 21C on the 2nd, max temps dive to 8C on the 4th. There follows a week of a windy WNW-ly type with several active frontal systems and cool to cold WNW-lies in between. Temps a shade below average with typical maxima 8-9C.

Around the 11th however the Azores high starts building in, settling things down again after a wet and windy week relative to March norms. It becomes sunny and dry with initial maxima close to normal around 10C, but as the week progresses it becomes increasingly warm again, reaching 18C by the 17th. However this is then followed by a NW-SE cold front producing a further spell of rain and temps plummet again. However this new changeable spell is more NW-ly rather than WNW-ly, so temps are colder relative to norm. In fact they are once again around 8-9C, but given it's now later in March this is further below average than hitherto. Weather is rather showery towards the east but drier further west. Winds veer northerly and become slack, bringing in colder air still but significant sunshine means that temps barely drop, hovering around 8C max. One or two secondary lows move southeastwards, producing some spells of cold rain and sleet at times. This type lasts a further week.

By the 25th pressure builds from the NW and the final week - just in time for BST - is sunny and dry though the air is still relatively cool so not extremely warm. Mean max in the south around 13C with some late frosts.

Overall mean max works out around 11.5, so a shade above average.

APRIL:

A further NW-SE cold front produces some rain early on the 1st, clearing by around 9am. This is then followed by around 4 days of "April showers" in a typical NW-ly airmass. Maxima around 12 or 13C with cold nights. By the 5th however the Azores high once again builds in and temperatures are on the rise once more. Winds shift southerly by the 10th and temps rise to 22C across much of the south in the strong spring sunshine.

However the most dramatic change of the year so far then happens on the 11th. A cold front plunges south overnight introducing a direct Arctic airmass and maxima across the south, having been 21 or 22 the day before, are now around 7. Wintry showers break out in the insolation of the day. But that's not the end of the story: on the 12th a polar low moves south introducing a period of prolonged snow which settles even in the far south. A dull and cold day with temps no higher than 5C.

The 13th-15th keep the northerly in place, each day consisting of a sunny start but wintry showers, some thundery, in the afternoon. Strong sunshine lifts temps to around 8-10C, with the snow melting fairly rapidly.

Around the 16th a frontal system produces rain from the NW and this is then followed by a less cold, typical April Showers, northwesterly type for a further four days, temps now back up to 13C. Again some showers are thundery. By the 20th the low shifts south again over the Continent but now a further change occurs with a westward-moving warm front which produces a spell of general rain moving in from the east and which introduces much warmer air. Two days of warm easterlies with max temps around 18 and still with widespread showers due to proximity of the low pressure follow.

On the 23rd the low shifts southwestwards and pressure rises while still maintaining the easterly airstream. Clouds break, showers die out, the sun appears and the remainder of the month is sunny and warm with temps around 23C on each day.

Mean max around 15.4 so again on the warm side of normal, despite the snow event.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Summer8906]

Part 2, May-Aug:

MAY:

May 1 still sunny and warm but a shift to colder conditions then begins on the 2nd, with colder NE-lies and still with the low over the continent. A short period of around 4 days unseasonably cold temps of around 12C follows accompanied with some showers, due to a cold pool nearby. This eases off with high pressure moving down from the NW, though still with an overall NE-ly flow. Three days (6th-8th) of average temps around 17C, good visibility and much sunshine follow. On the 9th however, a phenomenon that happens every so often this time of year occurs, with a thundery warm front moving east-west producing a line of thundery showers (something like this happened in May 2001, for example). This is followed on the 10th by a more humid and unstable airmass with extensive inland showers and thunderstorms but still with sunshine. Widespread temps around 24C.

This lasts until the 13th when a southward moving cold front merges with the humid unstable airmass to produce a period of more prolonged rain, heavy in many places. It clears on the 14th but with a straight northerly producing notably cool air for the time of year, just 12C or so. This is accompanied by rather cloudy conditions and showers. By the 16th however, high pressure to the west and northwest - a common feature of the month - moves in again and eventually right over the country. Temperatures rise from near-average to well above as the high eventually moves over Central Europe by the 23rd. By this time temps have risen dramatically to around 27C in many places.

On the 24th however, a thundery low over Biscay produces widespread thunderstorms and heavy rain, with temps dramatically falling to around 15C or so. The low then remains in situ across the southern UK producing rather cloudy conditions and heavy, thundery showers, to be replaced by a further low around the 28th from Biscay producing more heavy rain. This second low also remains in situ over the southern UK producing unsettled showery weather until the month's end. Temps are a little below normal at around 17C during these closing days.

More definitely warm than previous months, with a mean max around 19.

JUNE:

The opening week of June, 1st-7th, maintain May's rather unsettled conditions with slow moving lows and frontal systems producing showers and some periods of more general rain. It is also cloudy and cool, with winds from some westerly or northerly point restricting temps to no better than 17C. However by the 8th the Azores High moves in and produces a prolonged spell of warm sunny weather eventually becoming hot. Temps starting at 21C rise to 30C by the 18th though a thundery low then moves in from Biscay producing severe thunderstorms with large hail in places.  This moves eastwards on the 19th leaving a cool and cloudy NE-ly for a time, but this then eases producing a further spell of sunny weather lasting until the end of the month. Winds are mostly N or NE, though, restricting highest maxima to around 28C and with nights somewhat on the cool side.

Warm again, mean max round 22.

JULY:

The late June high starts toppling, and although July 1 is warm and sunny, most of the first week is cool and changeable. A WNW-ly or NW-ly type sets in with two or three small but active lows producing heavy rain on active cold fronts followed by showery conditions, with frequent thunder and hail, including a "settling hail" event under a particularly active cell. It's unseasonably cool with temps failing to get much above 17C.

Things then improve though - this is no July 2023, to put it mildly. The Azores high moves in on the 8th, and temperatures rise from around 22C on that day to around 32C by the 18th, in something of a repeat of June's sequence of events. A dry cold front then follows on the 19th dipping temps to around 22 again, followed by a further extension of the Azores high. Temps rise again and this time even further, reaching 34C in many places on the 26th - the year's highest value. However by this time pressure has fallen significantly and a large thundery low moves in from Biscay producing thunderstorms even more severe than those of June, lasting much of the night. This then leaves a rather unstable setup with a low to the west and slack southerlies or SSW-lies, producing still relatively warm days at around 24C but scattered slow moving showers. Furthermore another trough from the south produces a further heavy rain event on the 30th.

Another warm month with mean max around 24.5.

AUGUST:

Like June and July, the most unsettled weather occurs at the start of the month, for the first week. However unlike those months, it's warm, with a slack low located to the west, and temps a little above average at around 24 or 25. Several small lows move in from Biscay producing spells of torrential rain, with brighter but rather humid and unstable conditions in between. On the 6th and 7th the low moves right over the country dropping max temps to around 22-23.

By the 8th, once more the low relaxes away eastwards and the Azores high builds in again. It remains in situ until the 23rd with only weak frontal interruptions, with a long period of sunny weather and temps varying from around 24-28C.

The 24th sees a very weak cold front move NW-SE followed by notably cooler air with a N-ly or NW-ly type and large Atlantic high. Much cooler than for some time, temps are typically around 19-20C in the SE, with variable cloud and occasional light showers.

Warm again, mean max around 23.5 to 24.

 

 

 

[Summer8906]

EDIT: to make it more interesting I have a further condition:

7. Summer (June-Aug) must have at least one cool month and at least one warm month. Winter (Dec-Feb) must similarly have at least one mild month and at least one cold month. "Warm/mild" and "cool/cold" are determined by day maxima.

Consequently I'll make the second half of Feb 1 degree milder to average out at 8C max, slightly above average.

I'll more radically change June to make it (slightly) cool. Following the unsettled spell, a week of mostly dry but cool and cloudy weather with maxima around 17C. Then a brief initial four-day warm spell until the 18th, temps around 25C with the thundery spell mentioned above still occurring, temps down to 19 for two days. This then followed by 10 days of sunny weather with max temps around 24C. This would give an overall max just below 20C so slightly below normal.

Sep-Dec later when I have the time.

Edited November 19, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

OK finishing up with Sep-Dec.

SEPTEMBER:

The other of my 2 "dry" exceptions following February. A settled September does much to extend the "summer half of the year "feel.

First half of the month warm, sunny and dry. Two warmth buildups with an intervening weak cold front, in each case the daytime maximum building from 19 to around 26. This gives a mean max of the first half of around 22.5.

The second half of the month is cooler, as one might expect. Third week sees the high slip a little south bringing rather cloudy westerlies, though with occasional sunny days and some light rain. Max around 19C for this week. Air still relatively warm with cloud taking the edge off the temp.

Fourth week sees a renewed build of high pressure and a return of sunshine though cooler this time. Maxima only around 17C with cold nights. On the 30th the habitual rain (for that date) arrives with a cold front sweeping southeastwards and deep low in the North Sea producing some early strong winds.

So overall max a little over 20C, a degree or so above normal.

OCTOBER:

An early cold spell begins the month, with the 1st having fresh NW-ly winds, bright weather and some showers. Maxima restricted to around 15C. In the following days the NW-ly becomes a N-ly dropping the temp still further to around 13C, though it's generally bright with occasional troughs producing occasional organised bands of showers. Frosts at night.

By around the 6th however the low moves towards Central Europe and an Atlantic anticyclone moves in. Average or slightly-above-average days with frosty nights ensure, temps around 16C or so. With time however the high migrates eastwards pulling in warm southerlies ahead of deep lows in the Atlantic. Air becomes hazier, nights become milder and max temps rise, maxing at around 25C by the 13th.

An initial attempt at the Atlantic low complex moving in occurs on the 14th with a spell of heavy rain on a cold front from the west. However the continental high doesn't budge much and expands a little westwards in the rear of the cold front, which clears to still-warm conditions of 18C and mostly sunny on the 15th.  Temps rise again to reach 23C again by the 18th.

On the 19th a more active cold front moves in from the west with further heavy rain and this time the Atlantic does get in properly, with a slack cyclonic southerly type producing mild days but with showers due to upper cold air, some thundery around coasts.  Maxima still mild around 18C. This kind of weather persists for around 3 days before a more active low brings in a stormy spell by the 22nd which persists for about a week, three named storms passing through producing much rain and wind before grinding to a halt over the UK and producing unstable showery conditions. Temps drop down to close to average, around 15C.

Dark Sunday, on the 29th in this imaginary year, produces a change though, and happily the darker days are mitigated by a return of brighter conditions. The last storm in the sequence moves into the North Sea producing NW-lies ahead of another Atlantic high. Atypically, Halloween is sunny by day and frosty by night. Max temps down to around 12C in these closing days.

A distinctly mild month overall, despite short cold spells, 16.8C the mean max.

NOVEMBER:

What of this month of darkness and Atlantic activity? Well the only constraints are one wet week and one stormy week, which can be the same week, so:

The first week is sunny and frosty, producing some unseasonably pleasant conditions. Frosty at night though the airmass isn't that cold so temps typically maxing at around 12C. A late southerly, with synoptics very similar to what was seen in October, then moves in producing two or three days of unseasonably mild and also sunny conditions, peaking at 18C on the 10th.

A new breakdown then arrives on the 11th with a deep low moving up from west of Portugal producing heavy rain before grinding to a halt west of the UK. For a week from the 12th, secondaries move round this low producing some bouts of heavy rain and strong, stormy winds as the fronts move through, and thundery showers in between. Temps are somewhat mild during this week at around 13C.

Eventually on the 19th the low system retrogresses back out into the Atlantic, with a backing of winds from SSW to SE - something which has occurred on a number of occasions in the past at this time of year. Temps drop to below normal, only around 7C by the 20th and still further as a slack easterly becomes established. It's rather dull at first though - felt, for balance, I had to get some dullness in after all that sunshine.

By the 24th a cold front moves NE-SW and produces a brighter but still colder airmass and the final week is cold and sunny with severe frosts and wintry showers. Maxima just 3-5C.

Very average with a mean max of 10C.

DECEMBER:

The cold weather is well established and NE-ly to E-ly winds persist for the first few days, still with wintry showers in place. By the 5th the winds die down and a frosty anticyclone becomes established over the country, persisting for around a week, it becomes somewhat less cold by day with 5-6C compared to around 3C at the start of the month but frosts become severe with much hoar frost and fog in places.

Mirroring what happened in 1997 for a time, the high is then displaced by further easterlies bringing cold and dull conditions from the 13th-15th, temps back down at 3C. Also mirroring that year, a deep low in Biscay moves into the cold easterlies producing heavy and settling snow across the south on the 16th. This does turn to rain and produce a temporary breakdown and in the following week a series of deep lows cross the southern UK producing heavy rain and strong winds - so active are these lows that the month ends up being slightly wetter than average in the south, rather like what happened in December 1995. It also becomes mild during this week with maxima around 10-12C.

On the 24th however the jetstream moves further south and the final low produces a rain-to-snow event though with the soggy ground it's wet, non-settling snow. Christmas day is very cold and sunny, much like 1995, with maximum back down at 3C and such cold and sunny weather unseasonably persists until the 29th. Finally a further deep Biscay low attempts to move in on the 30th and 31st but, unlike its 1995 equivalent, only partially succeeds, producing a prolonged spell of heavy snow across the south (which does not turn to rain) and maxima around freezing.

A cold month with mean max 5.1C, making it the coldest month of the year.

Average mean maximum for the whole year is a little over 15C, so remarkably average for a southern England location! But more interesting, for my tastes, than the vast majority of real years. A mix of 1985 (Jan, Feb, Sep, Nov) and 1995 (the rest) would be a pretty perfect year, within the constraints of our climate, though!

 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Summer8906

[baddie]

All values and statistics are to be from my local averages, it may be different for others

Part 1 : January - March


January

The new year starts with S winds bringing in very mild, bright and dry conditions, with temperatures record breaking for NY, reaching 17.8c in London, and over 15c widely. This "spring-like" theme will persist for 5 days, with 4-6 hours of sunshine each day, and temperatures reaching 16c somewhere each day. The 6th will become very wet and much colder, with temperatures just clinging onto 10c. The 7th-10th will see a fall in temperatures, starting at 10c on the 7th, to 5c on the 10th, there will be some sunny spells and some rainy days in this period. The 11th-15th will turn milder and unsettled, with a named storm crossing the country on the 13th and 14th, bringing in very wet and windy conditions. The 15th should bring in a sunny day for a relief from the rain. Temepratures should climb back to around 12c during the storm

In the Second half, the Synoptics shoul be similar to January 2019. The 16th-21st will become much drier and more settled, with temperatures dropping throughout, and only 4c on the 20th. Most days are expected to be overcast, and foggy on the 20th/21st. The skies should clear to a crisp, sunny day on the 22nd, with the minimum temmperature at -3c, rising to around 5-6c by day. This should be repeated on the 23rd. The 24th will see a transition from cold to mild, with temperature starting at -2c at 7am, 3c at 12pm, then 9c at 6pm, with rain later. The 25th/26th should be milder and unsettled, but not too windy. The 27th will see another drop in temperatures, and down to -2c by morning of the 28th. The last 4 days should be a carbon copy of January 2019, but with actual snow lying. The 29th should see heavy snow, with 8cm on the 30th, and the 31st should see -8c by morning, with freezing fog

January would be mild month overall, with the maxima at 8.5c which is 1.6c above the 1991-2020 average. Rainfall should around or slightly above average. Sunshine is expected to be around 30% above average

It may not be a cold-lovers ideal month, it would provide you a bit of spring, autumn and winter. 8/10


February

The first half of the month will be similar to February 2012. where the start month will continue with the cold theme from the end of January, with more snow falling in the morning of the 1st, allowing snow totals to reaching over 12cm. The amount of snow lying will go up and down, and not clear completely until the 12th. Fog will persist on the 1st and will continue into the morning of the 2nd. The skies should clear by midday on the 2nd, allowing sunshine. The night of the 2nd/3rd will be very cold, at -6c, and the 3rd will be sunny again, with the maxima magaing to exceed 2c. The 4th-8th will continue the cold theme, with a mix of sunny and foggy days, with nights falling below -5c, and down to -8c on the 7th/8th.On sunny days, the maxima could reach 5c in places, e.g 5th, 6th and 8th. The 9th will be an ice day, with the maxima at -1c, with snow falling overnight, with the snow total back to 11cm by the 10th. The 10th will be the coldest day of the month, with maximas widely around -1 to -2c, with the mercury not exceeding -4c in some rural spots. The 11th is expected to be frigid, with the minima widely below -10c, and at -15c in some rural spots in the South and East (Just like February 2012). However, it will be sunny, therefore, most places will reach or exceed 0c, allowing large temperature swings. The 12th should be the last of the cold, with minimas of -7c in many places,, rising to around 3c by day, but should rise to average daytime values by night, due to heavy rain. The 13th will be a relief to the cold conditons, with the snow starting to melt, and temepratures reaching 13c

The second half of February will be dominated by S wiinds, rather than NE, bringing in spring-like conditions. This is to be demonstrated on the 14th, with most areas reporting clear skies, and temperatures at 14c (Which is around 15c higher than 4 days previous). The 15th should be similar, but with slightly more cloud cover. The 16th should then be overcast, but remaining mild. The 17th/18th will be very mild and sunny again, with temepratures reaching 16c on the 18th, and 17.5c somewhere in the South. Temperatures should dip on the 19th, and then the 20th-22nd will be rather unsettled, and potentially with a named storm. Temppratures should then be around 9-10c. The 21st would be very windy, and the 22nd should be very wet, with 20mm of rain. The last 7 days should be mixed, but the weekend of the 24th/25th should be dry, sunny and springlike but the last couple days should be more unsettled and wet, but dry again on leap day. Temepratures are expected to be at around 12c to begin with, then to around 7-8c at the end

February would be slightly colder than average, with the maxima at 7.1c, which is 0.6c below the 1991-2020 average, with the first half containing the coldest week since December 2010. Minimas should be at around 1.5c below average, but around 2.5c below average in East Anglia. Rainfall should be around or somewhat below average, with a lot of it on the 12th/13th and the 21st/22nd. Sunshine should be 40-45% above average, and in the top 10 sunniest on record

This would be the perfect month for people who love both, cold and snowy, and warm and sunny, with also a brief storm throw in. 10/10


March

The start of the month should be dominated by a SE type, bringing in warm air. This is demonstrated in the first three days, with temperatures at 12-14c on the 1st, then 15-17c on the 2nd, and some Southern areas seeing 18c. With hazy sunshine in the first two days, the 3rd will be a clear sunny day, with London reaching close to 20c, and many other areas uneasonably warm. The next few days will see a nosedive in temperatures, with temperautres down to just 7-8c and foggy on the 5th and 6th. The 7th-12th will be this scenario where some areas getting to 16c and wall-to-wall sunshine, while others are stuck at 8c with fog (Something similar to the half of March 2012). The 10th/11th will be warmer widely, with places reaching 18c in the clear sunshine, and less places seeing mist or fog. The 12th-14th will be more unsettled and average, with some heavy rain in places on the 14th, but nothing too extreme.

The rest of the month will see the same theme as most of the first half, with plenty of mist, hazy sunshine and clear sunshine. After another warm and bright period between the 15th and 18th, with some places reaching 18c, the 19th-21st will be briefly unsettled and again, with some showers, with some places seeing thunder on the 19th, but again, nothing too severe. The 23rd-25th will see its first 20c, culminating at 20.8c in Kent on the 25th. This is to be followed by thnderstorms on the 26th. The last 5 dys will remain dry and bright. Temperatures will start at 12c on the 27th, and up to 19c on the 31st, with places in London recording 21c on Easter Day. There will be a mix of hazy sunshine, and clear sunny days

March will be a lot warmer than average, with the maxima at 12.8c, which is 2.6c above the 1991-2020 average, making it almost as warm as March 2012. Rainfall is expected to be around half of average. Sunshine should be 25-30% above average for most inland areas, but closer to average for the NE and Coastal areas, due to more fog

This month would be a lovely one, as it would feel like a brighter version of the first half of March 2012, but would be even better by early-April. 9/10

Edited November 20, 2023 by baddie

[cheeky_monkey]

you cant have an ideal year if you attach arbitrary conditions to it 

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

you cant have an ideal year if you attach arbitrary conditions to it 

That's the point. The idea is not to make it too "easy" by just having constant snow and frost in January or constant warmth and sunshine with a few storms in July, and to force you to include weather which might not be so great in your eyes.

Edited November 20, 2023 by Summer8906

[baddie]

Part 2 : April and May

April

The warm and sunny weather from the end of March will continue into April, with the setup similar to late-March 2012. The first 10 days will be entirely warm and sunny, with some exceptions being misty mornings or hazy sunshine. Temperatures will start at 18-20c on the 1st and 2nd,, under clear blue skies. The 3rd and 4th are to be slightly cooler, but still pleasant for the time of year, with maximas at around 15-17c. with fog and frost during the mornings. Unbroken clear skies continue from the 5th-9th, with temperatures starting at 20c widely on the 5th, to reaching over 23c widely on the 7th/8th. The warmest temperature should be 26.7c in London on the 8th. The 9th will be warm again, at 25.3c in East Anglia, with clear skies again for all areas. The 10th will be the last warm and sunny day, with thunderstorms crossing through during the evening, and some being severe. By the 10th, there would have been 104 hours of sunshine for April.

The 11th and 12th will be a far cry from the "extended March 2012", with both days being cool, breezy and overcast, and not reaching 12c. The skies will clear by the night of the 12th/13th, allowing temepratures to fall below 0c. However, the 13th will be another clear, sunny day, but temperatures just reaching 14c. Unsettled weather will arrive on the 14th, with plenty of heavy showers, interspersed with sunny spells (See how I went from March 2012 to April 2012). This will repeat itself on the 15th, but less frequent. The 16th will be mostly sunny day, with temperatures back to 15c, and then followed by thundery showers overnight onto the 16th/17th. The 17th will start overcast, but become very wet from afternoon onwards. The 18th and 19th will be a lot colder, windier but brighter, as the mercury fails to reach 10c on both days, N winds make its way through the country on the 20th, with late-season snow falling during the morning, with 4cm lying on that day. Thanks to the sunshine, and the occaisonal threatening cloud, temepratures are able to make it to 6c (17c lower than 14 days previous, as well as the coldest day since February). The night of the 20th/21st will be very cold, with some rural places falling to -4c, and widely below freezing. The 21st will see strong sunshine, showers and leftover snow lying, but will melt overnight, due to heavy rain into the 21st/22nd. The 22nd and 23rd will remain rather cool, at 10-12c, with some longer spells of rain, espeically during the evenings and overnight, and brighter, showery weathers. It will become very windy on the 24th, but the 25th will be another unseasonably cold, wet and windy day, with over 20mm of rain in many places and temps sturggling to reach 10c.

The winds will then change to a W, allowing warmer, humid and occasionally wet weather. After a sunny morning and afternoon on the 26th, thundery showers will sweep across the country during the evening, allowing some heavy rainfall. The 27th will be a day of warmer sunshine, and thundery showers, with temperatures expeted to reach 17c. After two weeks of relentless rain or "April showers", the 28th will be a warm and sunny day, wth temperatures breaching 22c again in Southern areas, and around 20c widely. The 29th will be a warm day, with a mix of sunshine, threatening cloud, and thunderstorms during the evening. The 30th will be a day of hazy sunshine and occasional light showers, and will feel warm again at 20c in many areas

With a mean max of 15.2c, April will be 2c above the 1991-2020 average, despite the cold weather between the 17th and 25th. Minimas are excepted to be around average. April would also be a wet month, with 75% more rainfall than average, making it the wettest April since 2012. Sunshine is expected to be 30-35% above average, and in the top 10 sunniest on record, but not as sunny as April 2015, 2020 or 2021

For people who hate boring months and want everything April can provide, this is your month. 10/10


May

The warm and thundery weather from the end of April will continue into May, with the 1st seeing warm sunshine and heavy, thundery showers. Temperatures will dip close to average on the 2nd and 3rd, under cloudier weather, but on the rise again on the 4th, with most places reaching 20-21c again. The following days would see an incline in temepratures along with clear sunshine, with temperatures over 24c everywhere on the 5th and 6th, and 27.8c on Bank Holiday Monday (6th), in Kent.  The following day should see a thundery breakdown, with rainfall rates of over 25mm/hour, and many places seeing ove 30mm of rain that day. The 8th-16th should then be dominated by colder NE winds, bringing in dry but mostly cloudy weather and temperatures between 10-13c on most days, and a couple below 10c.  Some days are expected to be breezy, which will exacerbate the cold feel. The 12th and 13th would see persistant fog throughout, restricting temperatures to just 9-10c.

A low pressure system will then pass through the country on the 17th, bringing in heavy rain and winds, and possibly seeing a named storm. The weekend of the 18th/19th will see a transition from cold to warm. The 18th would be very dull and drizzly, and only getting to 13c, but the 19th, should be much brighter, and temperatures back to 19c. The 20th-22nd should see much warmer but unsettled conditions, with more thundery showers or heavy rainfall, interespersed with bright sunshine. Temperatures are expected to hover around 20c by day and 10c by night

From the 23rd, S winds will bring in much hotter air, allowing inclines in temperature. The 23rd-28th should see 6 consecutive days of unbroken sunshine and temperatures unusually hot. Extremes should be, 26.7c on the 23rd in Kent, 28.5c on the 24th in London, 29.3c on the 25th in London, 30.7c on the 26th in Kent, 31.8c on the 27th in Cambridge, 31.2c on the 28th in London and 29c on the 29th in Norfolk. Other areas should also see their highest May temperature on record, or well above average temperatures. Another widespread thundery breakdown should occur on the 29th, and many places in the Midlands and London should be rare supercell thunderstorms (Similar to June 28th 2012), and again, some places seeing substantial amounts of rain and/or flash flooding. The last two days should see temperatures close to average, with sunny spells and occasional showers

The average maximum temeprature for May is 18.4c, which is 2c above the 1991-2020 average, making May into the top 10 warmest. Mnimum temepratures shouls also be mild, but nothing compared to May 2017, 2018 or 2022. Rainfall is expected to be 40% above average, but some localised spots seeing similar rainfall totals to May 2021, but most of it coming from thunderstorms. Sunshine is expected to be around average overall, but sunny for some S areas. However, the start and end would be sunny, with mid-month rather dull

The month would be a great one for heat and thunderstorms, with a late taste of winter mid-month. 9/10
 

[Scuba steve]

Every day bright and sunny some overnight rain min temp 18c max 24 c one thunderstorm a month occasionally violent no wind and 18 hours of daylight 

[cheeky_monkey]

18 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

That's the point. The idea is not to make it too "easy" by just having constant snow and frost in January or constant warmth and sunshine with a few storms in July, and to force you to include weather which might not be so great in your eyes.

CBA ..way too many constraints as to render it pointless ..plus it not an ideal year if you are forced into including weather you dont like

Edited November 21, 2023 by cheeky_monkey

[baddie]

8 hours ago, baddie said:

EDIT : Because offesetting is a thing, I will change March and April

Cold first week, with temperatures around 4-7c until the 8th, starting with dull and foggy, then mostly sunny from the 4th-7th, then damp and misty again on the 8th, nights could fall to -4c on occasions, and -7c in rural areas. Temperatues climb by the 9th, to reach 14c on the 10th/11th with lots of sunshine, followed by the average changeable conditions for the next three or four days. The 15th onwards remain the same as I predicted. This will bring the mean maxima to 12.4c, which is 2.2c above the 1991-2020 average (rather than 14.3c, which is stupidly mild). Sunshine will be lifted to around 40% more than average. making it around the 5th sunniest March on record. Rainfall will be roughly the same

For April, I will keep the first 10 days of wall-to-wall sunshine. But the 13th-16th will be the temperature drop, going from 16c and sunny on the 13th and 14th, to 6c and snowy on the 16th (A bit like the transition for March 2012 to April 2012), followed by cool, showery NW winds for the next 8-10 days or so. The thundery end will remain the same. All parameters will remain roughly the same, but rainfall will be slightly lower than my first draft

I will do summer (June, July and August) soon

EDITED

March should be a spring-like first half (Similar to March 2014) , with changeable and wet interludes, and 18c temperatures on the 10th, then briefly misty between the 14th and 20th, with temperautres hovering around 7-9c in the fog but near 12c on brighter days , then a warm and sunny end, with 20c on both the 25th and 31st. Again, something like March 2011 or 2014, not quite 2012, but still very dry.

April would be sometihng like late-March 2012 to start with (just like how I said before), with 26c on the 8th, then a transition to April 2012s weather between the 11th and 24th. I want the end of the month to be freakishly warm again, and seeing its first 30c in April, on the 29th

I changed it again because we havent had a spring-like first half to March in ages, neither did we ever get a 30c in April.

For clarity, 1st March - 10th April will be equivalent to March 2012, but lasting 6 weeks, rather than a month, and the April 2012 for 2 weeks rather than a month, followed by the April 2018 heat spike on sterroids

*Notice how i am using 2012 to make my ideal February/March/April*

Edited November 22, 2023 by baddie

[baddie]

This is June and July. I will do August seperately, because there is a lot to talk about for that month

June

Following the scorching hot end to May, the Jet Stream will shift further south, and allow more unsettled conditions. The first 3 days will be 12-15c cooler than the week before, and see a mix of sunshine and showers, with some being heavy. A warm front will allow warmer temepratures and clear sunshine on the 4th, but nowhere near as hot as recently, with tmperatures reaching 22c. The 5th will then be a mostly cloudy day with thunderstorms later. The wind direction will change to a Northerly from the 6th onwards. The 6th will be a day of North Sea murk, restricting temepratures to just 13c with drizzle. The 7th wouldnt look much better, but sunnier in the afternoon

Skies will clear by morning on the 8th, but temperatures will fall to just 5c. The 8th will be a clear sunny day, with temepratures around 18c. The 9th will be similar, but slightly warmer. A mix of cloud and sunshine will dominate the 10th and 11th, but the breeze will restrict temepratures to just 16-17c. North Sea murk will dominate the 12th, with some places also seeing heavy rain, and temepratures only getting to 12c. An improving trent will occur from the 13th, which will be a brighter day, but still rather cold. This is to be followed by a clear day on the 14th, with temperatures back to 20c, then followed by 23c on the 15th and 16th and wall-to-wall sunshine. Humid S winds will sweep through on the 17th, culminating at 24c in many areas, and 27.4c in London, with heavy thunderstorms from around 7pm. Cloudier and showey conditions return on the 18th, with temepratures falling to around average. The 19th and 20th will feel spring-like again, with nights falling as low as 7c, and daytimes reaching around 20c with plenty of sunshine. The solistice will be another clear aunny day, with temperatures at 22c in most areas. The 22nd will then be another warm day, with 26c in most Southern areas, and 23c in the Midlajnds, which will also be accompanied with sunny skies

A cold front will pass through on the 23rd, allowing cooler temepratures and persistant light rain. Temepratures will be 8-10c lower than the day previous.  The 24th and 25th will be cool again, at only 16-17c, and mostly cloudy. Conditions improve again by the 26th, with temperatures at 21c with plenty of sunshine on the 27th. This is raise to 24c on the 28th and then 26c on the 29th, and accompanied with wall-to-wall susnhine. The 30th will be a day of two halves, hazy sunshine unitl 4pm, then thundery afterwards. This will be the warmest day of the month at 27c, reaching 29.3c in Kent

The mean max with be 19.2c, which is exactly average for June. Mean minimum temepratures will be around 1c below average. Sunshine will be around 35% above average, making it the 8th sunniest on record. Rainfall will be somewhat below average, but depends on where the thunderstorms affected

This month will be a great one for clear sunshine and good thunderstorms, despite being cool at times. 8/10


July

The first 5 days of July will be more changeable, following the thunderstorm on the last day of June. Temepratures will be around or slightly below average, with sunny spells and showers. Warmer air will push through on the 6th, with 25c in many places, then widely at 28c on the 7th. Unlike most warmer days, the 7th will see hazy sunshine or cloud. The evening on the 7th will then see heavy, thundery downpours. Warm and thundery on the 8th, leading to flash flooding problems in some places. Immediately cooler on the 9th, but staying mostly dry and cloudy. This will be repeated on the 10th and 11th. Slightly warmer again on the 12th-14th, but still rather cloudy at times

The 15th will see more sunny spells and higher temepratures, with 25c again in most areas. The 16th and 17th will flip to proper summer conditions, with 28c widely on both days, and 31.1c in London on the 17th. The heat will continue, with 32.5c in Kent on the 18th, then 34.7c in London again on the 19th , while most places in the Midlands and Eaast Anglia record their first 30c of the year (had them not have that in late-May). It then turns vividly hot on the 20th, as the mercury gets 36.2c somewhere in Kent, while areas in the Midlands will reach 33-34c. At the same time, it will become increasingly humid, and this will be noticable on the 21st, as it will reach over 35c again on the 21st, then followed by intense thunderstorms in many places by 7pm, with some places having a months worth of rain. A cool front pushes through on the 22nd, with much more in the way of cloud and rain, than hot and sunny

Cool and Changeable conditions will dominate for a few days, giving July 2023 vibes. The last 4 days will then be warmer and anticyclonic, but nowhere near as hot as the recent hot spell. Thundery showers again othe 31st

The mean max with be 23.1c, which is 1.4c above average. Mean minimas will be around 0.5c above average in most areas. Sunshine hours should be around average for July, with E areas more sunnier and W areas slightly duller. Rainfall is expected to be somewhat above average, and locally wetter than July 2023, but rain days should be slightly below average



 

Edited December 10, 2023 by baddie

[Summer8906]

On 21/11/2023 at 15:07, cheeky_monkey said:

CBA ..way too many constraints as to render it pointless ..plus it not an ideal year if you are forced into including weather you dont like

Ah but the idea is to include weather types which can produce very poor weather, but which come in a variant which makes it more interesting or bearable. So for example I include spells of Atlantic wet and windy weather, but they are in a relatively "acceptable" and/or "interesting" form, if you see what I mean.

Also the idea is to make it more interesting than just "Jan - cold and snowy, Feb - cold becoming mild, March - warm and sunny" etc.

Edited December 10, 2023 by Summer8906