The January-ending-in-4 pattern

[Summer8906]

As we approach another January of a year ending in 4, I can't help noticing that we've now had a long run of Januaries of years ending in 4 which were both mild and wet.

1974, 1984, 1994, 2004 and 2014 all milder and wetter, often much wetter, than average in southern England.

Pure coincidence of course (like the 1947-1963-1979 or 1695-1795-1895 sequences of cold winters, both of which failed in their next instance in 1995) but interesting all the same. Last Jan which didn't feature the pattern was 1964.

So will the same happen this year, or not, I wonder?

Edited December 3, 2023 by Summer8906

[trickydicky]

January 1984 was famously cold and snowy in the north was it not? 

[Summer8906]

7 minutes ago, trickydicky said:

January 1984 was famously cold and snowy in the north was it not? 

Maybe but just mild and very wet in the south. Winter 1983/4 was one of only four winters completely lacking lying snow in my location (NW Sussex) in the 80s (January year), the others being 1979/80, 1987/8 and 1988/9. I remember thinking at the time that it was a thoroughly rubbish winter compared to recent ones, though February was somewhat dry and slightly colder than average. And of course 1984/5, 1985/6 and 1986/7 were all notably snowy so it really stood out as a snowless winter.

I see the Netweather winter forecast is going for a January which is somewhat more likely to be mild and wet than cold and dry, so will that be 6 in a row?

Edited December 3, 2023 by Summer8906

[LetItSnow!]

8 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

As we approach another January of a year ending in 4, I can't help noticing that we've now had a long run of Januaries of years ending in 4 which were both mild and wet.

1974, 1984, 1994, 2004 and 2014 all milder and wetter, often much wetter, than average in southern England.

Pure coincidence of course (like the 1947-1963-1979 or 1695-1795-1895 sequences of cold winters, both of which failed in their next instance in 1995) but interesting all the same. Last Jan which didn't feature the pattern was 1964.

So will the same happen this year, or not, I wonder?

I think you'll find that it's just the fact that 1974 and 1984 just happended to be mild/less cold (which is only true for the south in 1984, further north it was cold and extremely snowy so it doesn't really count in my books) and the rest have occured within the timeframe of global warming. A stat that looks interesting on paper but is rather easily believable and explainable. One that was genuinely an amazing statistic was the poor summers in 8 years. That was spectacularly broken in 2018 though. I wonder what the summer of 2028 will be like.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Jan 2004 wasn't it quite snowy 28th? not great here, but other areas got lucky

[LetItSnow!]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Jan 2004 wasn't it quite snowy 28th? not great here, but other areas got lucky

That was the day there was I think some quite widespread thundersnow on a very potent northerly. Winter 2003/2004 is an interesting one because it seemed to bring frequent cold snaps even though it was a rather mild winter overall. I think it was one of those winters where it often would turn cold, but when it was mild it was really mild. There was record mild/warmth in early February, so much so that a chilly second-half only brought the C.E.T. down into the 5s.

[Summer8906]

17 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

I think you'll find that it's just the fact that 1974 and 1984 just happended to be mild/less cold (which is only true for the south in 1984, further north it was cold and extremely snowy so it doesn't really count in my books) and the rest have occured within the timeframe of global warming. A stat that looks interesting on paper but is rather easily believable and explainable. One that was genuinely an amazing statistic was the poor summers in 8 years. That was spectacularly broken in 2018 though. I wonder what the summer of 2028 will be like.

The poor summers in 8 was an interesting one. Certainly goes back to 1948, not sure about before that though.

Edited December 4, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

16 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

That was the day there was I think some quite widespread thundersnow on a very potent northerly. Winter 2003/2004 is an interesting one because it seemed to bring frequent cold snaps even though it was a rather mild winter overall. I think it was one of those winters where it often would turn cold, but when it was mild it was really mild. There was record mild/warmth in early February, so much so that a chilly second-half only brought the C.E.T. down into the 5s.

I guess 1993/94 was similar too, as that also featured a short lived snow event on January 6th and there was some snow in mid February during a brief-ish cold period.

[LetItSnow!]

41 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

The poor summers in 8 was an interesting one. Certainly goes back to 1948, not sure about before that though.

I remember reading that you had to go back to 1868 to find a proper hot, if not decent summer in an 8 year. 

[Summer8906]

56 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

I remember reading that you had to go back to 1868 to find a proper hot, if not decent summer in an 8 year. 

I know 1908 was half-decent, that was a very interesting year as a whole and the summer, while not consistently warm and sunny, was one of the better ones of the first 30 years of the 20th century (though not a "star" summer like 1911 or 1921).

Edited December 4, 2023 by Summer8906