Cold Marches after mild Februaries

[LetItSnow!]

After seeing a (very unlikely to verify) cold chart for early March, it lead me wonder on how many cold Marches have followed mild Februaries. I scoured through the historical data to see what interesting charts I could find.

March 1867 was a very cold March (3.1C) after an exceptionally warm February (6.9C) and made up a very turbulent extended winter with extreme contrasts in temperature. December 1866 was unusually mild (6.1C), then January was cold (1.2C), then February was almost six degrees warmer. February 1867 was mostly unsettled and zonal with persistent Iberian heights which ridged closer in the second half which would have been very springlike. The change came in early March and pressure began to retrograde and by the 7th there was a bitterly cold easterly across the country. Low pressure tended to anchor to our southwest and bring in persistent easterly winds right up until the final week when cold relented and Atlantic air began to improve temperatures. The temperature see-saw wasn't over as April 1867 switched back to warmth (9.3C). March 1867 was fairly wet (78.7mm) and I imagine would have been very wet/snowy at times in the south.

Just two years later and another spell of wild extremes, this time even more so. March 1869 was almost four degrees colder than February (3.8 vs 7.5, an extremely warm February in the warmest winter on record). Whereas February was extremely zonal, March was persistently cold and blocked and a tad on the dry side (I suspect a lot of raw, cloudy weather). The swings were more extreme this time with a very warm April following (10.1), then a cold May (9.6).

A less extreme version in March 1877. February was generally mild (6.2C), zonal and fairly wet but cold outbreaks occured in the final week and at the end of the month, giving way to a cold and unsettled March (4.9C), this one featuring more in the way of northerlies and north-easterlies and being on the wet side. Could imply it was snowy for the north and less so the south. Unlike the last two years, this was part of a generally cold spring all the way through.

The next year features a March that even 2013 would shudder at. February 1883 was generally very wet, mild (5.9C) and stormy, but became anticyclonic toward months end. The anticyclone persisted into the opening days before retrogressing and unleashing a bitterly cold tempest on the 6th. Then followed a brutal, unrelenting spell of cold weather that lasted until the 29th. March 1883 has an extremely cold C.E.T. of 1.9C(!), colder than almost every winter month since 1991. However, it was actually quite a dry month and fairly sunny in places, so it was often probably frosty and bitterly cold at night, more impressive considering strengthening March sun. Trevor Harley writes: The lowest recorded temperature over Easter: -14.2C at Braemar on Good Friday (23rd). Overall it was the coldest Easter period on record. There was snow on Easter Monday (26th) and in many places the maximum temperature was around freezing. 

We only go two years ahead for our next example. February 1885 is interesting for two reasons: One is that unlike previous Februaries mentioned, it does have a go at getting cold mid-month with northern blocking but fails to come to much and is overall wet, mild and zonal - two is that it's the only well above average month for temperature (5.8C) of the year in a generally very cold year. March 1885 is generally rather cold (4.5C) but without any particular interesting synoptics, just dry and probably quite dull.

A big leap ahead to 1937 next. The winter of 1936/1937 was very wet and very mild and most of February followed suit, being one of the wettest Februaries on record (194mm of rain at Kew) and also mild, but it became cold in the closing days with a southerly tracking low allowing cold air to dig in from the north and turn rain to snow. Trevor Harley writes: Most notable for a great blizzard on the 28th. Deep drifts across the west and north (12-13' in Nairn). Some drifts were reported to last throughout March. There was a severe snowstorm in the north, particularly NI & Scotland from the 11th to the 13th. The cold March (3.6C) was a blip in a generally warm first half to the year with a warm April and May following (9.2C and 12.2C). It was another wet month though despite the flip to cold (89.5mm).

The next example is somewhat split into two, but I'll include it anyway. Most of February 1946 was very unsettled and mild (5.9C) but it turned cold as the month came to a close as the weather pattern became blocked. The first half of March 1946 was very cold and very blocked with frequent easterly winds. In contrast, the second half was much warmer with a "heatwave" starting on the 25th and into a very warm April (9.9C) with readings in the low twenties widely across the country. Despite this, the cold first half meant the C.E.T was only 5.1C. It was a very dry month.

February 1980 was mild (5.8C) and unsettled apart from some snow in northern areas during the first three days. March 1980 continued the unsettled theme (very wet with 102.2mm EWP average). It became progressively colder as the month went on. There was some snow midmonth, accompanied by strong, biting easterlies on the 19th. 20 cm of snow closed Aberdeen airport on the 17th. Overall, March 1980 has a C.E.T. of 4.7C.

While not an overly cold March in and of itself I'll also include March 1995 which was rather chilly (5.5C) and featured wintry weather at times. The winter of 1994/1995 was extremely wet, very mild and with little snow apart from a severe snow event in the north on January 25th. The heaviest snowfall of the year in southern Britain fell on the evening of March 2nd, particularly around Birmingham. 15 cm fell over Wales, the Midlands, and the outskits of London. Another Arctic plunge resulted in a snowstorm on the 28th, causing disruption NE England, with the Pennines badly hit: 35 cm at Holmfirth in Yorkshire. After the snow, -9.8 C was recorded at Altnharra in northern Scotland early on the 29th. A very changeable, seasonable and extremely sunny March overall.

 

I suspect March 2024 won't be making this list but you never know!

[Metwatch]

Some more here in the list I made on the March CET thread. Relevant to this thread I'd have thought. Not all Februaries mild or Marches cold in that list, but there are quite a few more that can be added. e.g 1908, 1918, 1925, 1949.

Edited March 3 by Metwatch