Will 2024 have the new hottest day on record for the uk?

[WYorksWeather]

 Summer8906 There is a possible way to get anomalous cold for both western and southern Europe - it would probably require the mid-April type pattern to continue. Heat getting displaced further east towards south-eastern and central Europe, with all of western and south-western Europe being on the cooler than average side. But the late April pattern persisting for a whole summer would be quite bizarre - not sure if I can recall a good historical example of a summer that would be comparable.

[B87]

 WYorksWeather Do you think we will have any sunny summers before 2030, or a continuation of dull ones like 2020, 2021 and July/August 2023?

It's possible that every summer til 2030 will be dull. After summer 2006, we didn't see another average or sunny one until 2013.

Edited May 6 by B87

[Summer8906]

 B87 Indeed, and if I remember right, the only summers to reach or exceed average sunshine since 2006 have been 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2022. If correct, that is quite a dismal statistic!

[Summer8906]

 WYorksWeather True, admittedly when considering "southern Europe" I was considering the south-east too. In the south-east the difference is even more pronounced.

It appears that August 1986 may have been a rare example of cool weather both in north-west Europe and south-east Europe. I don't have a record of the actual temps in Summer 1986 in Greece and surrounding areas, but it does appear that cold uppers were frequent in the region which might imply cooler-than-average and thundery. There seemed to be a large area of cool uppers stretching from NW to SE Europe, with SW Europe best.

But August 1986 was synoptically odd. Very northerly compared to most cool, wet summer months.

Edited May 6 by Summer8906

[B87]

 Summer8906 Since 2006 at Heathrow, average or above summers were 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023.

The bold years were sunnier than average, the rest average. 2023 would have been seen very differently if the temperature anomaly and sunshine hours were evenly spread throughout the season, like a typical British summer (2001 etc). 

[Summer8906]

 B87 Ah ok. 2019 has come up before and it appears that it was significantly duller here.

In 2017, while the first half was summery at times, while the second half was terrible (not unlike a milder version of 1986). Again I suspect here it was duller: outside that 10-day hot spell in June and a few warm sunny days in early July, it was predominantly cloudy. Tropical-maritime SW-lies were frequently present in late June and in the 2nd week of July after the 10th, which will have restricted the sunshine here more than in London I suspect.

I'd be surprised if 2023 reached average sunshine here, as it was very dull indeed from June 26th onwards, by all accounts (relying on second-hand information for some of the time). July had just one sunny day, I think (the 7th), August did a bit better but dull weather was still the main theme.

Going back further, I would guess that 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005 and 2006 all reached or exceeded average sunshine.

Edited May 6 by Summer8906

[B87]

 Summer8906 Very different sunshine pattern here in those years. 2017 and 2019 were a reverse of each other, 2023 was heavily weighted towards June. July was the dullest since 1992, and August was slightly below average.

2017: Jun 229, Jul 202, Aug 195

2019: Jun 194, Jul 219, Aug 222

2023: Jun 285, Jul 169, Aug 192

1991 was duller than average, being similar to 2016. 2004 was close to average for sunshine as well.

Edited May 6 by B87

[Summer8906]

 B87 Don't have figures for 1991 but in some way the profile was not dissimilar to 2016 in the sense that June was horrifically dull and wet and August was sunniest.

But July 1991 seemed considerably sunnier than July 2016 and August 1991 was spectacularly sunny while August 2016 perhaps only marginally above average.

1991 seemed a "goodish" summer overall, while 2016 seemed like an average one.

2004 seemed dull, with one sunny spell for around 10 days in June and a shorter one at the start of August - but with cloudy, humid and often wet the main theme.

Edited May 6 by Summer8906

[B87]

 Summer8906 Heathrow sun hours...

1991: Jun 135, Jul 219, Aug 242

2004: Jun 236, Jul 202, Aug 213

2016: Jun 119, Jul 207, Aug 223

 

Edited May 6 by B87

[LetItSnow!]

7 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

It appears that August 1986 may have been a rare example of cool weather both in north-west Europe and south-east Europe. I don't have a record of the actual temps in Summer 1986 in Greece and surrounding areas, but it does appear that cold uppers were frequent in the region which might imply cooler-than-average and thundery. There seemed to be a large area of cool uppers stretching from NW to SE Europe, with SW Europe best.

Answering your queries about temperature anomalies for the rest of Europe in the summer of 1986:

June 1986

July 1986

August 1986

Summer 1986

Strange summer for Scandinavia, very hot June but a freezing cold August. We had a summer like that back in 1896, may have to do a thread on that one. Would be the second thread on 1896 I've ever done as I covered the bitterly cold autumn years ago.

[Summer8906]

 LetItSnow!Ah ok, thanks. Interesting that SE Europe seemed to have relatively cool uppers during August 1986 but it was evidently on the warm side at the surface. Perhaps a very thundery month in this region?

[Frigid]

3 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

We had a summer like that back in 1896

Interesting, it's 1986 with the numbers swapped around. 

[LetItSnow!]

 Frigid I'm usually the first to notice things like that! Interesting

[Roger J Smith]

I would guess 37 to 38 will be top UK reading in 2024, no real science involved, just a hunch. It will be in the upper third of all years but not quite a top ten per cent value. Will agree there's a chance of a higher reading given early April "heat" that spread into parts of southern and central Europe, think it was 29 C in Bavaria at one point.