Snowynorth
-
Posts
86 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Snowynorth
-
-
The tripole back in 2009 didn't really show fully until the end of December, also the same for 2010. A long way to go yet.
We got extreme cold values end of november/begining of December 2010 so a fully established tripole is not the only factor in the science of extreme cold over the uk. I think the tripole is growing, there is evidence to support this. Also i am seeing other little pointers that push us below average winter wise. There is no stand out evidence to support a mild winter. A lot of reasearch i have done for this year regarding trends ect is on a par with 2010.
-
WHats happened?
heavy hail showers around in the north west, could have had some impact
-
1
-
-
I know we have a lot of factors to include for this winter but it seems we have a tripole set up growing, which i believe has a big influence on our winter!!!
-
1
-
-
We have now gone right through to November without the air temperature dropping below +3C (and that is 400 metres' elevation in the North Pennines). This flags up the likelihood of a mild, stormy winter.
Oh, and to correct one oversight above, sunspot maximum peaked this year (2013)- not 2011 and 2012 (when it was still actually increasing to its maximum). Higher sunspot activity lends itself to solar storms that impact on the Earth's atmosphere (which itself is- on its sun-facing side- "moving east to west" at 1.6 million miles per day), thus the impact is to increase the "Westerly" momentum of the atmosphere. This lends itself to stronger Ferrel Westerlies and south-Westerlies over higher latitudes; these block the passage of bitter Arctic or Russian air towards Britain whilst bringing warmer air from somewhat lower latitudes of the North Atlantic (this, combined with the warm North Atlantic and ice cover in the Canadian Arctic but not the European Arctic encouraging cyclogenisis in the right locations, was responsible for the mild, wet and totally frost-free October!).
The warm October will mean that the seas around and west of the UK will have been kept warm, which will encourage mild strong Westerlies to sweep in right through the winter. The only precedents of a warm extended summer (May to September) then a mild, frost-free October that I have actually recorded were 1989 and 2004- both ensuing winters (1989/90 and 2004/05 respectively) were very mild and wet with little in the way of serious snow until February. One can therefore infer that winter 2013/14 will be mild, stormy and wet; but there will be short cold snaps later (probably about February) though the cold snaps won't last. Don't count on temperatures getting more than a couple of degrees below 0C until then (unless you happen to live in a frost-hollow): I will go to Ladbrokes and bet a grand on there being no snowcover (or snowfall) across lowland England on Christmas Day 2013!!
We broke the temperature record in 2011 for october with 29° so warm autumns don't precursor mild winters, in fact just the opposite i have found. During the last period of cold winters we have had rather warm Sept/Octobers. Until we see some significant evidence of sustained trending, one can only assume we are still in this cycle of blocking patterns. The models still suggest a blocking pattern forming. Maybe not as extensive as recent years but the trend is still cold or at worst average. From what i have seen in the models high pressure will again dominate the northern hemisphere with well above average temps for the acrtic, disturbing the vortex and leading to some stratosphere warming as previous years have shown. How strong it gets is usually down to timing with the tropical wave cycle!!!!
-
I want cold as much as the next person but it's not going to get cold here until Europe has cooled. Moscow is getting a heatwave at the moment.
Moscow was just as warm in 2010 this time of year. This year beat it by 0.3°.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00220101101.gif
-
2
-
-
https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/1394456_549206121831256_1119210065_n.jpg
Seeing some similarities from this year and 2010. Seems we are still in the pattern of recent winters. I see nothing to suggest otherwise!!!
-
flash of lightning around southport way again
-
Highest wind gusts reported across the region were generally below 40mph - the highest were 69kph or just < 43mph at Blackpool and Emley Moor.
I can tell you now that the squall we had was gusting well over them figures. I person from preston also said the the gusts wasnt so bad so it seems that bowing in the radar was indeed a severe gust event but a localised one. ive seen severe gales round this area and this gust was prob worse. ive never seen rain blown about like that!!
-
It looks like a squall line correct me if im wrong
To be honest i think its just a train of heavy showers, a squall usualy has a very sharp edge to them on radar where as this has a messy look to it!!!!
-
Estofex are a free service at end of day and i couldn't do what they do for free im certain of that. Everybody has different takes on weather forecasting and i take their views on board when i look into forecasting. The weather is fickle we all know that and no amount of money/computers can forecast certain events. Just ask a certain weather man, ( sorry to mention it ) but we are getting better. Nature just has a habit of reminding us that we are not in charge!!! Anyway bring on the storms im waiting very patiently so pls come my way!!!!
-
Light rain/drizzle at the moment....why the amber warning? I have an image in my mind of whoever issued the warning sitting on the toilet rocking slowly back and forth, mumbling incoherently, whilst his colleagues mill around growling "which muppet issued that warning?...we're looking right prats at the minute!"
Train of showers flying in from the south west now this is the area of interest not the rain we have just had that was just warm frontal precip.
-
Is this a warm front moving through today, perhaps the main area of concern is behind this area of rain as Meto are saying N England would be affected this evening?
Edit: from reading over estofex' forecast, they say some clearing may occur after the warm front moves NE to allow the warm sector and frontal boundary to do their stuff. Correct me if I've read it totally wrong though.
The warm front has already passed and we are in the warm sector at present in a very big moisture filled area. The way i see it is a cold front is approaching later to be the menace. This cold front drops south overnight and decays and becomes a warm front that pushes back north on sat.
-
Yes this may be more likely, but you know that tornadoes and land spouts can form in bow echoes? You are not looking at a supercellular hook signature and unless you have doppler radar imagery you cannot rule out the possibiltity of a tornado. The localised wind damage and eye witness descriptions are supportive evidence also.
Totally agree i just think there is a lack of evidence to suggest it was a tornado. I only live 15 miles away and we had the worst squall ive ever seen so i can see why people think it could be a tornado with the way it just blasted in. Its good to see this type of weather getting air time even if it is 'beefed' up lol.
-
Yes -
http://www.bbc.co.uk...hester-19280220
News report on BBC iplayer which is unfortunately time limited and will expire shortly. Jump to 7mins 43 seconds -
Nothing on radar to suggest it was a tornado and more like a wind gust event to me. More like a bow echo wind gust.
-
-
Given up with Estofex, sometimes they are spot on but so many times they are not, yesterday produced nothing even though I was smack bang in the middle of a level 1. The same goes to the rest of them, but I understand forecasting is hard.
Thats the nature of the beast with storms!!!! Unpredictable
To be honest i think the rain will be the sour puss tomorrow i cant see storms blowing when there is so much precip about. Will be one to follow in the day. Any breaks will fuel but forecasting were the breaks will appear is anyone's guess
-
Looking ok for some action tomoz!!!!
-
Great video!
Poor wheelie bin gettin knocked over and the guy in the car never got out, Shame lol!!!!
-
Vid from squall.
-
well that was mental, its was a squall alright lol. Sky went green then instant white out and the wind gusts must have reached 70mph!!! got vid ill post soon
-
Persistent light rain,the sky is fairly light not dark as others have commented. The temperature has definitely dropped as people are starting to cover up now (they weren't before) the breeze feels a little chilly at times mixed with warmer air. I think we are on the boundary of cooler Atlantic air here perhaps. I noticed around the north Wales coast is around 16-17C currently. I think convective potential will fizzle out further north and west but may invigorate later further eastwards?
Think a huge squall line is developing from north wales to south coast we may just see a little action!!
Anybody else see the huge squall line developing from north wales to south coast
-
Light rain here and breezy which is making it feel less humid and as a cosequence a little cooler. The skies are uniform grey like a typical drizzly day.. It appears as if it is very stable.
John H I wasn't inferring it was Autumnal, more the visual aspects such as wind, dull skies and steady light rain.
Think it will get increasingly unstable as the day progresses, the south are experiencing it now as the cold front pushes in. Its all moving north so plenty time yet for developments!!!!
-
2 areas of interest at mo the rain band nr north wales seems to getting more linear and there is a good dry area evolving in the midlands now that should kick things off!!!
-
Muggy but only light rain here. Are any storms supposed to be before or after the warm and cold front today?
They seem to be firing along the cold front in the warm sector at the moment. I think that trend will continue as the cold front pushes north!!!!
Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.9.9.2013.gif
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.10.10.2013.gif
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.11.11.2013.gif
You can see from the sept/october/november that we have an evolving tripole!!!