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snowking

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Everything posted by snowking

  1. snowking
    It looks awesome The only thing I would caution is that it looks as though it was initialised from Thursday 18z GFS, so it may be a little out of date by now
  2. snowking
    Far more elegantly put than I could ever manage. I was a little surprised to see the amber warning appear I must say but I suspect it is the longevity of the snowfall as shown on the 6z E4, as opposed to the intensity, that has led to that warning. Presumably the UKV must be showing similar I still remain a little sceptical of the need for that warning area I must say, but will be more than happy to be proven wrong...just as long as I can get to the pub for the rugby
  3. snowking
    That FAX chart is pure filth and should not be consumed in public places A note of caution that streamers like this of course rely heavily on the eventual flow, which even at 72 hours out is far from certain with some high margins for error. But given the more E'ly flow showing on most of the 12z suites, that is a justified FAX chart
  4. snowking
    And I'm all for discussing the models in the model output discussion, but it would be nice if we could discuss what the models are showing, not what you would like them to show based upon personal preferences (I fully accept, by the way that those of a colder persuasion are often guilty of this in the colder months). What you have done by posting an 850mb temperature chart would be the equivalent of me in the summer months saying "Ohh, it won't get above 30c because of the cloud cover" and then just posting a single 500mb chart showing a high with a flow off of the Atlantic, rather than going and actually checking something such as the cloud cover parameter. And I could only imagine I would post such a thing to try and get a reaction? Apologies if I am wrong but it's difficult to draw too many other conclusions. Anyway, a big upgrade in terms of the UK wide potential for our next little hurrah to winter, with more areas likely to see at least something wintry falling out of the skies. But as has been posted here through the day, very poor intra-run consistency on placement of any precipitation post Saturday's returning front, hence such large warning areas I suspect. It's difficult to tell from the Weather.us charts whether the 12z ECM is still keen to push more persistent snow Northwards across Southern England into Sunday or not...mostly because there just seems to be a mass of precipitation across most of England and Wales throughout the weekend (all of it snow incidentally) It's going to be one of those situations where I think even the hi-res models are going to struggle until we get to within at least 24 hours.
  5. snowking
    Trolling at its finest With a shallow surface flow and sub zero dewpoints I don't think there's much concern about sleet away from perhaps the immediate coastline
  6. snowking
    Indeed Nick, the ECM has been toying with this on and off for the last few days making landfall across the South The 0z does bring a spell of (albeit fairly light) snowfall for much of southern England through into Sunday
  7. snowking
    I don't think the UKV goes out that far Nick, so I would assume the view out to 48 hours (which shows hourly forecast intervals) would be UKV and then possible it would be the GM thereafter? Either that or some kind of MOGREPS-R output, but I would have thought GM more likely Either way, as always to anyone less experienced, I would treat these (and any hourly app type forecast for that matter) with the disdain they deserve. They're probably at their most useful printed off and then used as loo paper
  8. snowking
    WTF Steve's battery is in the 70's?! Remarkable synoptics for the middle of march and just another sign that we're headed into a few years of decent wintry chances I suspect as the sun falls quiet in association with the end of SC 24. As @Nick F pointed out earlier, the most exciting thing about such a cold spell at this time of year should be solar convection, with just about anywhere in with a chance of seeing a fair few wintry showers. But when you see charts like the ECM tonight across England and Wales you get just that little bit more hopeful of something rather widespread. Great March model viewing, even if I was hoping for something a little more spring-like by now, I will never turn down the opportunity for one last shot at winter
  9. snowking
    Well whilst it has been a little disappointing for me personally vs what some others have seen this week, this definitely goes down as one of those big events that will be talked about in years to come. To put it into context: Jan/March 2013 Feb 2012 (pretty localised) December 2010 Jan 2010 February 2009 1991 1987 That's the sort of company this spell goes in with in "recent" years. An unprecedented 50cms of snow falling in a single day in South Wales, probably the biggest number of road and rail closures I can ever recall (beating even December 2010). Glasgow airport earlier commenting that it's the most snow they've seen in their history. Whilst we only managed an inch or two really here in Greenwich, to have seen the rate of snowfall we saw in Central London, to see the pictures from elsewhere around the region and beyond, not to mention the number of ice days we have recorded, anyone who claims that this has not been an historic spell of winter weather is simply being IMBY. -16c 850mb temperatures from the east is something that it could be a long time before we see again (bearing in mind the last time we saw these before that was 1991) The more encouraging thing about all of this for all of us should be that with the sun going into a deep slumber again, this is just the start of another run of cold winters to come. If we think about what happened in Feb 09, and what followed through the years until 2013, we should all be just a little bit excited about what still lays ahead - I would be fairly confident in saying that at least 2 of the next 4 winters will feature significant cold spells, and I would punt at saying 3 out of 4 to be honest. I also hope that this, in combination with March 2013, finally puts to bed the myth on these forums that we can't get decent cold once we get beyond mid-February. In fact, I would suggest that temperature wise we have benefited from catching the North Sea at it's coldest point. The last hurrah of the cold spell is still unfolding outside the window as I speak, and whilst there is that personal disappointment, this will certainly be a spell that's referred to 50 years from now
  10. snowking
    Well reassuring to hear that from the ECM If we look at the projected position at 6pm from the ECM: And then the radar grab: Both have the precipitation almost as far East as Amiens, so a pretty good match in terms of location Of course, we need to wait and see what the dynamics are as this crosses the channel, but judging by the current radar returns towards the South-West, we shouldn't be too concerned
  11. snowking
    Are you talking about the stuff overland expanding East, or the stuff over in France? If it's the former, it's started snowing again in Greenwich in the last few minutes as that little area pointing towards Kent moved over us
  12. snowking
    Some very light snow falling again in Greenwich now Looks as though the whole system is building on the Eastern flank And that's before we see what happens as the stuff growing Eastwards in France hits the channel...
  13. snowking
    Hmmm not quite I'm afraid Steve It's starting from an expected base of between 2-10cms across the London area before the front hits: (which, by the way, seems rather unlikely - it's forecasting a few cms of snow through the region overnight but we'll have to wait and see) So when we then switch to what it forecasts on top of this: Maybe another 2-5cms it looks like from that. Precipitation rates generally between 0.5-2mm per 3 hours so nothing too drastic, especially running into ever increasing dew points (so snowfall ratios possibly a little less impressive than in the previous few days) But we have seen the EURO4 underestimate PPN amounts before so we'll have to see what unfolds
  14. snowking
    Kent has certainly been the place to be so far it seems Somehow here over the last 24 hours Greenwich has maintained a position inbetween all of the heaviest precipitation. Just light to moderate snow here through the morning and and looks likely to ease off over the next hour or so. ECMWF still keen on a spell of decent snowfall through tomorrow late afternoon/evening
  15. snowking
    Pretty similar to other reports really, light snow with small flakes but very gradually getting a bit heavier You can see this on the radar with two points of intensification - one running through the Thames and the other spreading North through Surrey and perhaps Sussex/Kent - hence the reports from Surrey currently. Hopefully we see some intensification continue through this band with further fronts arriving from the South as the day wears on
  16. snowking
    According to HIRLAM it certainly is
  17. snowking
    So here's what the various models were predicting for 9pm across France: As stated by Chris Fawkes earlier, HIRLAM definitely the closest fit to the current radar image: It's difficult to tell in terms of intensity how good a match it is but the main thing is almost all of the modelling is too far South-West right now. Now if we follow the sequence through even for the HIRLAM, you'll notice the precipitation runs Westwards along the front, so ultimately even though the system is a little further North-East of where most models forecast it to be, it may not make a huge amount of difference. But it's a good starting to point to try and bring as much of the region in to play as possible: So it will be very interesting to see where we find ourselves in the morning. The giveaway should be if by 7am we already have snow pushing into the South coast and it stretches all the way across to Dover The other thing to note on the HIRLAM is that it keeps the feed coming in from the estuary for most of the night and then this kind of merges in to the band of snow as it heads North - remember Chris mentioned on Twitter earlier about frictional convection blowing through the Thames....
  18. snowking
    Absolutely, the radar watch will be key Just for fun, the system which moves North into the region during Saturday afternoon pivots over London, and eventually clears the region about 3-6pm on Sunday - mostly light precipitation again but falling for quite some time - a little bit sleety towards the far east
  19. snowking
    To keep the balance though... ECM still keen on decent snowfall through the region on Friday: All snow, and I'm just waiting for it to update the next few frames but it looks like it might introduce another spell of snow from the south on Saturday
  20. snowking
    ECMWF remains a tad further East, though with nothing on the scale of the HIRLAM with largely light precipitation - though we've seen the pretty impressive liquid to snowfall ratio's in recent days so difficult to suggest how much might fall But for most of the region, it's around 0.5-2mm of precipitation, so maybe a few cms.
  21. snowking
    As expected the 12z EURO4 pretty similar to raw UKMO: Patchy snow for much of our region, a little more persistent in the west. Very little precipitation shown at all on Friday to 12pm, though it looks more likely to hit later on Friday so will have to see what is offered in later runs. Over to you ECMWF
  22. snowking
    Just to try and keep things a little bit balanced in here, the 12z UKMO-GM definitely a bit further West with things: This really will be a wake up and look at the radar job tomorrow for us I'm afraid. It will be interesting to see the 12z EURO4, which I assume is initialised with the same data as the UKMO-GM
  23. snowking
    This evening will be very interesting Most of the hi res models had very little modelled for this afternoon, but did develop a very light streamer through this evening Given we already have a streamer in place, it could be that we see this strengthen a little as we head towards this evening. I've been back in Greenwich the last couple of hours and we have just had snow flurries on and off
  24. snowking
    The snow through the Thames just starting to head back in a WSW direction again - more snow for much of North and central London in the next hour or two
  25. snowking
    Very heavy snow in Victoria - vauxhall tower has disappeared from view
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