snowking

Interesting tidbit from the runs today in the shorter term continues to be the potential for snowfall into the South of the UK in association with the shortwave feature progged consistently in recent days by the ECMWF: The ECMWF (including ensemble suite) really rather keen on this, though the operational (displayed below in Black) is perhaps more keen than the EPS suite (red), whilst the GFS has no interest at all (Green) in its ensemble suite: ECM mean solution pictured below: Whilst the UKMO has it further south: Given that it is not expected to reach as far north as the midlands: For now the assumption would be that the ECM det. solution it too far north, and that over time it may come more into line with its EPS mean solution, placing it further south overall. SK

Funny you should mention that I posted briefly over in the seasonal thread earlier, and at the moment to two best matches in terms of QBO and ENSO expectations are 1978 and 1962 What I would say at this stage is that despite both of these years being followed by cold winters, this is being used as an analogue for SUMMER. We are far from seeing how the QBO in particular will actually develop through the year, so this doesn't in any way mean at this stage we should be preparing for another 1963 (the potential winter analogues won't be clearer until autumn) I suspect a rather low pressure dominated summer though - the signal from those two years is a mean Sceuro trough SK

I have been led to believe that the temperature range feature on the Met Office website: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/london-stansted-airport#?tab=tempRange&map=SignificantWeather&zoom=8&lon=0.24&lat=51.88&fcTime=1364536800 Comes directly from the MOGREPS model too (which derivative it comes from I am unsure, presumably MOGREPS-R?). It may only go up to T+120, but if Ian is able to confirm this, its another tool to add to the box SK

I have just begun to take a look towards summer 2013 Some early observations. QBO wise, the best analogue period is 1978. The main reason for this being that we have now been under an east QBO phase for 20 months, and are now heading into positive (westerly) territory. 1977/78 is the next best match period I can find for this at 19 months. 1978 has some weak ENSO correlation too - a generally neutral stance (though the difference I am expecting between 2013 and 1978 is a slightly negative index as opposed to the slightly positive index that characterised '78). Funnily enough 1962 (mentioned already here in jest more than anything) offers perhaps the best ENSO match in terms of my expectations of weakly negative, with some minor QBO support in terms of it being an increasing westerly There are a number of other analogue years I have picked out, and these have produced composites consistent with those created by 62 and 78 (based around ENSO and QBO correlation), and I will go into these at a later date. The overall picture offers a mean sceuro trough: With a resultant negative affect on temperatures: Though rather surprisingly, the precipitation anomaly remains around average on the whole: As a side note, based upon these composites, the best month of the year may end up being October. So, there's some preliminary insight. I expect it will take me another month or so before I can offer up anything conclusive. SK

I really can't add any more than has already been said, other than to say that without your expertise Stewart none of us would have anywhere near the meteorological knowledge that we do now. You have, and continue to be an inspiration to us all, and I can only thank you for the countless hours you have spent helping us all to further our knowledge, and wish you the very best in you new role. Cheers Kris

Im going to guess its largely based (as usual) on the ECM 32. Certainly promoting something far milder (though still below average) for Heathrow: It has shown pretty good consistency in this regard over the past 3 issues (below, Red is most recent, Black is previous, and Blue is last Thursday's issue) So initially last Thursday's issue was too progressive with its idea of a warm up in the shorter term, but there is now good consistency from the ECM in the longer term in terms of the temperature trend. A split in the last few runs of the CFS in this regard, a generally less anomalously cold picture than currently: However, still variation within the h500 forecast: vs So still some uncertainty in the overall weeks 3/4 pattern, but the natural warming beginning to come through one would think over the next few weeks SK

It will be an interesting one to monitor John as the EC det. has been pretty good in recent months in picking up an overall trend However, for the time being, it remains an outlier against the EPS suite: SK

For me today the story of the 12/18z's has been more energy going underneath the block in the semi-reliable timeframe: The euro's more steadfast on the energy coming from the east (which could generate some snowfall interest incidentally - long way to go before we can consider that one though) GEM and JMA get in on the action too: Still uncertainty apparent there on how much energy we see from the east vs the west. Ensemble means run with the idea too: Just one set of runs so far, but should we see a similar movement from the 0z, it could well generate a little more interest for those who are still able to tolerate the cold. I've got a trip up to Birmingham next week via Pinewood Studio's, so I have mixed feelings at present! SK

Apologies, my mistake sir! SK

Trouble is though BFTV, I could quite as easily post this: Which suggests that the overall sea ice extent over the southern hemisphere is in fact increasing. So which do you take more prominently, mass, or extent, because over the past 10 years or so, its sea ice extent that has been spoken about extensively by climate scientists in the northern hemisphere. SK

Absolutely shaky from earlier this week the profiles were looking most conducive to shower activity today We discussed this a littler earlier on the SE regional thread and unfortunately despite higher and higher resolution modelling running increasingly complex models of physics, they still struggle with precipitation more than anything. Even as of last night, there was unanimous high resolution modelling consensus on snow flurries through the Thames estuary...yet absolutely none have materialised today SK

I think thats a crucial point to make here CC and I tried re-iterating that in my post over on the SE regional thread yesterday - and this also applies to any proponents of AGW Ultimately theres a lot of data out there that makes it look like we are about to enter a grand solar minimum, and that the associated changes, already apparent within the past 4-5 years, and those historically linked in with the CET data available troughing at similar timespans to previous solar minimums (namely Maunder and Dalton). However, 2 previous periods, and 5 years of a new lower solar cycle hardly constitutes a representative sample size (just as 20 years of CET rise prior to 2007 doesn't prove we are in an unstoppable warming trend). Ultimately, it will be another 10-20 years yet before we are able to even get close to conclusively proving whether there are any links to be had. I think it is also worth pointing out that solar theory can still work very happily alongside an overall warming trend, and the next 20-30 years may just prove a temporary blip in an overall warming climate (whether you believe this to be human constituted or not). Nevertheless, I am actually pretty confident that towards the end of this decade, into the depths of cycle 24 and on the approach to cycle 25, we are likely to see a winter that sits somewhere between December 2010 and 1963/47 from a UK perspective SK

Hi John, I think this particular dataset is displayed in knots. For demonstration purposes, heres the accompanying chart showing the maximum wind gusts: Perhaps I am reading that completely incorrectly, but from what I can make out the (kts) at the top left of the image indicates that the corresponding scale is in knots. Kind Regards, SK

The ensembles are indeed promoting slightly less cold temperature as we head into next week, but it must be said they have been continually delaying/downgrading the degree of warmth as we move on. To demonstrate this, the last 5 (0z and 12z) runs of the GFS (Black most recent, Blue the oldest) And ECMWF: An overall downward trend in Tmax from each ensemble run is really rather evident. As for the suggestion of it feeling pleasant in any sunshine next week, I would disagree given the continuing windchill. Heres next Wednesday from the 0z ECMWF: Winds of between 25-30 knots - so lets take the lower end value, which equates to roughly 29mph. Temperature projection from the ECMWF ensemble mean for Heathrow is 7c. Passing that through the new formula for windchill leaves us with a windchill factor making it feel more like 2c - its hardly going to have me reaching for my mankini (the public will be glad I am sure). So yes feeling pleasant in the sunshine next week so long as you have a greenhouse. Otherwise remaining really rather chilly. SK

It's unbelieveable, high resolution modelling was absolutely unanimous last night on the placement and timing (between about 9-12) of snow flurries though Essex and Kent It just goes to show that we can spend as many millions of pounds on more powerful computers that can run increasingly complex models of physics as we like, but that ultimately we still have a very long way to go - precipitation being seemingly the most difficult variable for them to cope with on evidence of this winter SK

I wouldn't rule out it hitting the beccuda triangle, after all the tropospheric profile for the past few days really didn't look especially conducive (especially yesterday) of shower development across the north of the UK, with a cap generally just below around 900mb for cloud development If we compare that to tomorrows skew t: Slightly higher cloud tops possible, so perhaps, just perhaps, we may see a few more showers than projected (as per the past few days) SK

Just about every high resolution output i've looked at this evening (various WRF models, NMM, NAE, ECMWF) all suggestive of some snow flurries through the Thames Estuary area (mostly S + E Essex, Kent, Sussex) around mid morning tomorrow into the first part of the afternoon. This from the belgian/dutch WRF model offers the best idea of the potential areal spread of the snow flurries: From the same model, the areal spread of potential accumulation (generally trace amounts shown, so just the chance of a quick dusting): So it will mostly be a falling snow scenario which will hopefully give a little interest tomorrow SK

ECM ensembles tonight (these for Heathrow) showing max and mins: Still nothing drastically mild, but less cold than this week perhaps. Below is Tmax ECM ensemble box plot, with ECM Op (black) and GFS Op (Green) overlaid for comparison: So a gradually less cold picture emerging, but still feeling really rather chilly I should imagine, and still the risk of overnight frost: SK

I must say this sort of desperate story from so called 'climate scientists' is really starting to get my back up now, and when i'm mayor of the world, this sort of thing will be stopped. The biggest problem I have with it is yes, the physics of the situation they are describing is indeed very likely to be correct - it links in, in fact, really rather nicely with the work of Cohen in some respects. However, a number of points really to make here 1) And this is one i've brought up before. This is all based upon already known physics. If thats the case, then why did the same breed of 'climate scientists' suggest about 10 years ago that by the end of this decade, kids in the UK would barely know what snow is. They have seemed so sure that the polar ice caps would continue to melt year upon year, and so surely they would have seen such events coming (at least one would think) rather than making the ridiculous previous suggestion of snow becoming rarer than a pope's mankini. 2) These sorts of winters have happened before, many times, and have indeed rolled on in to spring - we know this, because we are not headed for a record cold March. So, if we are to assume that such temperatures in the past are accurate (and climate scientists generally accept this as it helps to act as proof that the world is warming vs previous periods), then what caused those periods? Because according to their science, it certainly wouldn't have been polar ice melt. And this leads me nicely on to point 3... 3) Surely, there must be something else at play here. My opinion has been rather strong on this for the past 3 or 4 years now, ever since the sudden switch to the much cooler winters we have experienced since 2009/10, comparative to the rest of the 90/00's period, and that is that things must be, in some form, solar led. Can it be co-incidental that two of the coldest climactic periods in recorded temperature history (the dalton and maunder minimums) occurred during quieter solar cycles? Perhaps yes, 2 isn't really a large enough sample size to say with absolute certainty that this was the cause. However, add to that the fact that the warmest period within recorded temperature history occurred during one of the highest sunspot-count solar maximums, and a picture starts to emerge. Here is a useful graph showing the various solar maximum/minimum periods over the last few century's: And here's one showing the smoothed trend line: When we take a look in more detail at the end of Solar Cycle 23 (the previous solar cycle) and the current progress of solar cycle 24: We see how much higher the sunspot count for cycle 23 was at its peak (far left of the graph) in comparison to the current peak for cycle 24 (the last part of the graph so far). We also notice those more extreme years, 09/10, occurred during a very low solar minimum (the lowest, in fact, since the 1870's). The current peak of cycle 24 is also considerably lower than that projected by the NOAA (the red line). However, also notice the huge peak anomaly that occurred around late 2011/early 2012....I seem to remember a much less cold winter last year than the previous few years... Perhaps this helps to show an emerging picture. Cycle 24 is one of the lowest for many decades, defying even the constantly lowered projections in the build up to cycle 24 - a cycle which climate scientists claimed would be insignificant against the overall temperature trend caused by AGW. In fact, if we look at the Hadley CET data: It may be noticeable that the CET peaked around the time of that very high solar maximum. Co-incidence once again? Perhaps. After all, this is just the UK, a very small land mass in the North-East Atlantic. However, if we take a look at the global temperature trend: Its a little pre-emtive to suggest that we have hit a similar temperature cap here and that we will definitely see no further rise in temperature globally, that wont be clear for at least another 10-20 years yet, but it does match up rather well to the Hadley CET set, and the sunspot cycle data. So, where do we go from here. First of all, I would project an overall decline in global temperature over the next 20-30 years. I am unsure whether this will prove a permanent decline, it may just be a temporary blip in the midst of an overall AGW lead unstoppable temperature rise. In terms of the immediate future, i.e cycle 24 and 25, cycle 25 is now projected to be one of the lowest since the dalton minimum. The giveaway to the current lower solar cycles was actually the end of cycle 23, which Japanese researchers suggested was very much akin to the beginning of the solar cycles leading into the maunder and dalton minimum periods - cycle 23 lasted many months longer than it should have done, and historically an extended solar cycle head lead to the following few cycles to also last much longer and become far lower than their predecessors. I would therefore predict that in the midst of the changeover between cycle 24/25 (theres a huge variations on estimations on when this might happen, ranging between 2018 and 2023 from various articles I have seen), the solar minimum that occurs could give rise to a winter akin to that of 63 or 47 (I think, in reality, it will lie somewhere between 2010/11 and 47 or 63). This most likely to occur towards the end of this decade - we did, in reality, escape a similar type winter to 47 or 63 back in 2010/11, when the reload of the cold just missed the UK to the East, instead giving continental Europe such winter synoptics. But as an overall trend in winters (next winter, perhaps, excepted, given the likely QBO setup, though if we remain below average sunspot count wise it will be interesting to see where solar factoring can over-ride such teleconnectics), expect them to be cooler and snowier than was the case during the 90-00's period that nearly drove us all insane. Finally, whilst we are on the subject of sea ice, there is no doubt that the Arctic sea ice extent has declined dramatically: However, isn't it amazing how little we have been hearing about, for example, the trend for sea ice extent in the southern hemisphere... Its almost as if theres something to hide.... Anyway, in conclusion, vote SK for Mayor of The World SK

A rather chilly set of ECM ensembles once more this evening, a gradually slightly less cold theme as per the previous sets, but nothing that really screams warmth: And tonights Glasgow ensemble: We have ECM ensemble (Red), ECM op (black), GFS Ensemble (Green) and GFS op (Yellow). Pretty good agreement between the four. A slight trend upwards overall, but remaining well below average SK

Those are still yesterday's 12z I must say having seen 3 of the previous 4 ECM det runs promoting something less cold I had fully expected to wake up to similar this morning, but the 0z ECM much colder through to T240 (with a snow event for some around t168/192) this morning. And looking at the 0z ensembles (sorry I'm on phone so I'm I able to post the) there's been no swing toward milder, with the control and op both sitting right on the mean, with very little rise of significance in temperature Cold persists - Thursday still looking potentially interesting for snow shower development (especially when you compare the profiles for today in comparison to Thursday, and look at the shower development so far in the north today!) SK

Just to follow on from Ian's very informative post from earlier. If we take a look at the current set up: Some low-ish heights, triggering off some snow flurries for a large part of NE England and E Scotland at present. Heres the accompanying Skew T from the ECMWF for midnight tonight for Newcastle: Notice that there isn't really much height potential for the clouds from this - hence the snow flurries, but still an impressive amount of them about. Now lets take a look at the setup for Thursday: Heights even lower for this period, and the GFS suggestive of this, at least, too. If we then take a look at the ECMWF Skew T for this period for London: That cap on the cloud tops just that little bit higher. So we're not looking necessarily at anything major here, but certainly the potential for some more widespread (and slightly higher intensity than at the present moment) showers on Thursday, with the highest risk the further SE you head. SK EDIT: To demonstrate, the GFS Skew T's not as supportive of the slightly higher cloud tops, though still potentially enough there for some light flurries similar to those across the NE currently

The dutch ensembles this evening: Det at the top end of the members once again, but the control following can often precede a swing in the ensembles. The 0z should be more telling, but some hope there I'm sure for Gavin (and many more of us I suspect from the current public mood!) SK

This evenings Glasgow ensembles then - Tmax and Tmin: 12z ECM Tmean (red) with GFS 12z Tmean overlaid (green) So both ensemble sets in fairly good agreement, a likely continuation of the cold, at least for Scotland from these. And then the today vs yesterday comparison ECM 12z today (red) vs 12z yesterday (black) Very little change GFS 12z today (Green) vs 12z yesterday (Black): Trend downwards today And to finish off (why not!) ECM 12z vs 0z: Pretty much as you were, a slight trend upwards towards day 15 vs the 0z. SK

ECM certainly agrees with that prognosis, a lot of showers around on Thursday for Central and Eastern parts showing up, and the ECM generated skew t's very suggestive of this too I will see if I can get one posted this evening over in the model thread SK