john pike
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Posts posted by john pike
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M 6.8 - MOLUCCA SEA - 2014-11-26 14:33:45 UTC
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=410567
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M 4.5 - JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION - 2014-11-25 09:01:53 UTC
M 4.4 - JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION - 2014-11-25 09:04:33 UTC
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=410366#map
a couple of quakes close to iceland that may have a bearing on the plates there
updates 3+ today
Tuesday
25.11.2014 13:14:26 64.670 -17.443 2.5 km 3.8 99.0 5.2 km NE of Bárðarbunga Tuesday
25.11.2014 10:20:43 64.658 -17.355 4.1 km 3.8 99.0 8.4 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Tuesday
25.11.2014 06:23:05 64.674 -17.445 9.9 km 4.0 99.0 5.4 km NE of Bárðarbungaplus
Tuesday
25.11.2014 14:11:56 64.620 -17.430 1.1 km 3.7 50.5 5.2 km ESE of Bárðarbungawhich is waiting review
Tuesday
25.11.2014 14:11:56 64.618 -17.464 2.4 km 4.2 99.0 3.9 km SE of Bárðarbunganow reviewed
certainly less quakes since the 5.4 although this does not mean this is slowing down
it can also mean magma is moving easier without much resistance
mo update
25 November 2014 10:00 - from geoscientist on duty
Since kl. 10:00 yesterday, 24 November, around 70 earthquakes have been detected within Bárðarbunga. Similar to yesterday, most of the seismicity is occurring on the northern side of the volcano's caldera. Of the 70 detected earthquakes, at least 11 are sourced from the northern part of the dyke intrusion under Dyngjujökull.
The largest detected earthquake since yesterday's report was around magnitude 3.8. At least eight other earthquakes exceeded three in magnitude.
Overall, the level of earthquake activity is lower than in recent days. This trend has been observed several times since the Holuhraun eruption began.
Please note that the GPS station on Bárðarbunga is off-line at the moment due to a communication problem.
From web-camera views of Holuhraun, the eruption continues unabated.
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2947
again its a watch and see what happens still
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga/
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/
cams are viewable at present
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http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=319&y=149&run=18&runpara=0&col=1&type=0&ext=1
link for gefs ensembles
note the gfs p run near the end is the thick mustard colour run
would be nice if right but is an outlier on there
i reckon a couple of weeks more and things hopefully will look more interesting
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http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html?eps=london
ecm london ensembles
temps
wind
rain
temps slowly dropping with frosts more noticeable 2nd december on
little wind
rain = very little from thursday on = high pressure
lets say this is much better than being battered by the atlantic
the cold will come but patience will be needed
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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=384&code=0&mode=0&runpara=1
no probs guys
just run the gfs p run 18z
a little ott tonight
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hi all
tonight
brrrrrrrrrrrr
:cold: coastal regions should avoid a frostdry and foggy locally
tomorrow
a south east flow
looks to start dry
however rain will move in from the south from late morning
the fax chart is for 6pm so the rain looks to be more restricted to the south of our region
the north may miss the rain until late in the day
temps
between 7-9 degrees
so quite chilly still
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tomorrow night
still under a south east flow
rainfall
rain looks scattered but more south restricted
however late at night
some very heavy rain moving in from south to north
temps
around 6-8 degrees
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wednesday
a weak south-south east flow
rainfall
still got showers around but the heavier rain more effecting the north of our region
late pm
should have cleared all around 6pm ish
temps
somewhere between 8-10 degrees
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wednesday night
a weak south -south westerly flow
watch for more fog
temps not cold
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thursday
a southerly flow and will be breezier than of late
looks like a cloudy day with the odd shower
not cold though
will go a shade further tomorrow night
goodnight all
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Current seismic signal (SSLW station, AVO)
A surge of activity was detected at the volcano. The Alaska Volcano Observatory writes: "Seismic activity has increased over the past two hours and more sharply over the past 30 minutes, suggesting that the eruption at Shishaldin has intensified. Ash emissions beyond the immediate summit crater are more likely while seismic activity is increased. Satellite images from earlier tonight show elevated surface temperatures near the volcano's summit.
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Fogo volcano (Cape Verde) eruption update - lava flows cut road
Monday Nov 24, 2014 11:59 AM | BY: TLava fountains and flow from the new eruption at Fogo (Fogonews)Ash plume from Fogo (HOTVOLC / OPGC-LMV / Culture Volcan)Lava flow from Fogo cutting the road in the caldera (Fogonews)Lava flow from Fogo (Fogonews)The new eruption, so far small inside the Cha caldera, continues. It is taking place from a fissure with two closely spaced vents on the southwest side of the Pico de Fogo, very near to the 1995 eruption vents.
The upper vent produces ash, the lower one feeds lava fountains (or continuous strombolian activity) and several 'a'a lava flows. One of the lava flows quickly cut the main road through the caldera, but no other major damage has been reported.
A SO2 plume mixed with some ash is visible on satellite data in distances of up to 150-200 km from Fogo.
Army, Civil Protection and the Red Cross have been mobilized to monitor the situation and coordinate possible evacuations if needed. Ships have been called to be on standby.
Video of the eruption:
- All news about: Fogo volcano
- Information about: Fogo volcano
put your sound on
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Bárðarbunga Magma Closer to the Surface By Páll Stefánsson November 24, 2014 09:41
Bárðarbunga. Photo: Páll Stefánsson.
The first data received from new seismographs put up on Bárðarbunga volcano, which lies under Vatnajökull glacier, last week, shows that the magma is much closer to the surface than previously thought.
The earthquakes occur at a depth of only three kilometers (1.8 miles), not five to eight as scientists had assumed. “The Bárðarbunga magma chamber system is much more complicated than we thought,†geophysics professor Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson told mbl.is.
The new data shows that the ice on top of the Bárðarbunga caldera, which has been sinking slowly but steadily ever since the eruption in Holuhraun started in late August, is thinner than previously thought.
The lava which is erupting in Holuhraun north of Vatnajökull is coming up from at least nine kilometers (5.5 miles) under the surface.
http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/11/24/bardarbunga-magma-closer-surface
http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/Factsheet_Bardarbunga_20141124.pdf
update from iceland scientific board
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga/
still viewable and looking lively still
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Fogo volcano news & eruption updates Fogo volcano (Cape Verde): new eruption
Sunday Nov 23, 2014 17:34 PM | BY: TA new eruption started at the volcano this morning around 10:00 local time. The aviation alert was raised to red due to possible ash emissions that could harm aircraft in the area.
Not much detail about the eruption is so far available, but a strong thermal anomaly was detected on satellite data, suggesting the presence of lava at the vent, perhaps in the form of lava fountains. Typical eruptions of Fogo start with lava fountains / strombolian activity that build a new cone, followed by lava flow effusion.
According to news articles, strong precursory seismic activity since yesterday night caused many people to sleep outside their houses. Approx. 1000 people have been evacuated from the Fogo caldera.
Increased CO2 emissions had been detected from Fogo during the past months already, an early sign that fresh magma was rising under the volcano. When measured in March, CO2 emissions had increased from averages of around 90 to more than 300 tons per day.
- All news about: Fogo volcano
- Information about: Fogo volcano
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ecm 12z london ensembles
temps
rain
looks likely high pressure coming in
from around the 2nd on frosts look more likely
temps will drop daytime but will take a while to do it
your welcome daniel
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hi all
tonight chilly and clear later with mist locally possible
tomorrow
a weak west-north west flow
looks dry
temps
around 8 degrees
should be sunny for a bulk of the day but clouding over from the south late afternoon
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tomorrow night
a very weak variable flow
rainfall = nil
temps chilly around 3-4 degrees
looks cloudy so mist and fog possible
if you get clear skys a frost is possible
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tuesday
a weak variable east-north easterly flow
rainfall
early morning
spot the rain coming in from the south (warm front on the fax)
by lunchtime
rain effecting more areas
now a bulk of this rain will be light-moderate but there could be some local heavy downpours
with a rumble or 2 possible
temps
around 8-9 degrees
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tuesday night
a variable flow but more southerly now
rainfall
again a rash of showers with some heavier bursts mixed
note the trough on the fax which could produce the odd rumble or 2 again
temps
not cold tonight due to rain and cloud
looks misty locally too
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wednesday
a weak south east flow
rainfall
cloudcover
although some showers around it looks more scattered
likely be a lot of cloud though
temps
likely a shade warmer 8-10 degrees
will not feel it though in the rain
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thursday
looks dry with some sunny spells
around 12 degrees
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friday
windy south east flow
looks dry with a slim chance of some coastal showers
cooler around 8-10 degrees
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ukmo raw for 144 bottom right
saturday
a weak south east flow
but too far out for specifics
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http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/
hi all
looks like its pretty lively still
also
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/#view=map
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/#view=table
interesting to see more quakes at kistufel again
could we see something happen soon at the glacier???
heres the full list updated of 3+ quakes today
Sunday
23.11.2014 15:36:59 64.657 -17.466 1.3 km 3.2 99.0 3.5 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 14:15:47 64.662 -17.434 3.3 km 4.1 99.0 5.1 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 13:14:33 64.671 -17.434 9.0 km 3.7 99.0 5.6 km NE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 09:45:37 64.672 -17.457 7.4 km 4.0 99.0 4.9 km NE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 09:22:46 64.616 -17.431 4.1 km 5.1 99.0 5.3 km ESE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 09:13:25 64.679 -17.439 1.5 km 3.0 99.0 6.0 km NE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 09:11:57 64.657 -17.371 1.3 km 3.1 99.0 7.7 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 08:35:09 64.673 -17.487 8.1 km 3.8 99.0 4.1 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 08:14:55 64.672 -17.465 7.9 km 4.1 99.0 4.6 km NE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 06:04:00 64.673 -17.440 9.2 km 4.3 99.0 5.5 km NE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 05:57:52 64.622 -17.430 9.3 km 3.9 99.0 5.1 km ESE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 05:50:25 64.616 -17.436 8.0 km 3.9 99.0 5.2 km ESE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 03:30:35 64.679 -17.472 8.5 km 4.1 99.0 5.1 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 03:02:40 64.669 -17.400 7.8 km 4.3 99.0 6.9 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 02:51:41 64.676 -17.442 8.6 km 4.1 99.0 5.7 km NE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 02:24:28 64.668 -17.475 7.5 km 3.3 99.0 3.9 km NE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 02:04:02 64.669 -17.411 8.2 km 3.8 99.0 6.4 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 01:53:05 64.676 -17.468 7.3 km 3.9 99.0 4.9 km NE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 01:07:55 64.679 -17.467 6.4 km 4.0 99.0 5.2 km NE of Bárðarbunga Sunday
23.11.2014 00:32:59 64.617 -17.465 1.6 km 3.7 99.0 4.0 km SE of Bárðarbunga20 so no slow down here
still plenty of deep ones so no slow down of magma to it
23 November 2014 12:00 - from geoscientist on dutyThe situation remains unchanged, although a slight decrease in the number of larger earthquakes has been observed in recent weeks.
A M5.1 earthquake occurred on the southern caldera rim of Bárðarbunga at 09:22 this morning. This was the first M>5 event since last Sunday. Additionally, 14 events exceeded M4 and around 20 were in the range between M3.0 and M3.9. Activity was relatively high throughout last night and dropped considerably following the M5.1 this morning. Similar patterns of increased activity before and decreased activity after M>5 earthquakes have been frequent in the last weeks at Bárðarbunga.
Activity in the dyke intrusion was rather low, but has slightly increased following the M5.1 earthquake this morning. About 15 events have been detected, all below M1.0. A slight increase of seismicity in the dyke during the first hours after M>5 earthquakes at the caldera rim has also been observed in several previous cases since the onset of the activity.
No obvious changes in the volcanic activity at the eruption site in Holuhraun, based on camera observation.
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2947
as we were by the looks of things for now
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Saturday
22.11.2014 22:58:23 64.682 -17.462 0.2 km 4.2 99.0 5.6 km NE of Bárðarbunga
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/#view=table
that was very shallow
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M 3.5 - ICELAND - 2014-11-22 22:58:23 UTC
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=410028
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tuesday night look wet
and so does wednesday morning
not cold but may get misty again locally
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wednesday
a variable windflow
rainfall
after the main rainfall clears it looks like a day of localised showers
temps
around 12-13 degrees
too much cloudcover to see higher temps there
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wednesday night
barring the odd shower it looks mainly dry
risk of fog tonight could be quite widespread
not cold but chilly
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thursday
a slightly breezier south west wind
rainfall
barring coastal drizzle early it looks mainly dry
potential for cloudy murk to plague the south coast for a while today
temps
10-11 coastal
11-13 elsewhere
temps again reduced due to cloudcover
now look at ukmo at 120
this is the closest match i can get to the fax chart
however call that fi for now
too much variation in the models to go further
ecm ensembles for london
temps
wind
rain
spread there on the 29th but the mean is cooling down
if the atlantic was to barrell through the rain graphs would show more rain than is shown
however i would say do not expect a freeze up soon.
it will likely be a slow process but frosts will come more into the mix if high pressure holds on
anyway more tomorrow night when the late fax charts come out
regards
john
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plus 3 quakes from 15.48
Saturday
22.11.2014 20:06:33 64.611 -17.443 2.6 km 4.2 99.0 5.2 km SE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 19:52:52 64.666 -17.497 4.5 km 4.6 99.0 3.2 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 19:01:24 64.672 -17.458 6.9 km 4.4 99.0 4.8 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 18:39:34 64.641 -17.361 5.8 km 3.8 99.0 7.9 km E of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 18:36:51 64.667 -17.403 8.8 km 4.3 99.0 6.7 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 18:34:57 64.691 -17.425 9.6 km 3.8 99.0 7.5 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 18:29:52 64.675 -17.480 0.5 km 3.8 99.0 4.5 km NNE of Bárðarbungathe 18.29 @0.5 was very shallow
the others all fairly deep
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/#view=table
http://www.vedur.is/photos/volcanoes/barc_gps_3d_is.png
certainly seems to have started dropping again
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Fluctuating Lava Flow in Holuhraun By Eygló Svala Arnarsdóttir November 21, 2014 16:09
Photo: Bernard Meric.
The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues to be strong, although its productivity has decreased from mid-September. The activity is similar to what it has been in the last two weeks but the lava flow is more fluctuating.
The flow is forming an extrusion to the east-southeast, as stated in the latest status report from the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection, released at noon today.
The Seismic activity in Bárðarbunga volcano under Vatnajökull glacier continues to be strong. The biggest earthquake detected there since noon on Wednesday was of magnitude 4.6. In total 16 earthquakes bigger then magnitude 4.0 were detected over the period and 39 between magnitude 3.0 and 3.9. In total 170 earthquakes were detected in Bárðarbunga since noon on Wednesday.
In total 65 minor earthquakes were detected in the intrusive dike, connecting Bárðarbunga and Holuhraun, over the period, which is greater activity then detected there over the past few weeks. Most of the earthquakes were detected in the northern end of the dike but about 15, including the larger ones, hit further to the south and under Vatnajökull.
The subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera and tectonics continues at a similar rate as in the last few weeks. Tectonics movements show a depression towards Bárðarbunga.
Today sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas pollution is expected to the north of the eruption site. Tomorrow, gas pollution is expected in West Iceland.
For forecasts, go to vedur.is and information on SO2 levels and pollution advice can be found airquality.is.
http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/11/21/fluctuating-lava-flow-holuhraun
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http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=410003
M 5.5 - ROMANIA - 2014-11-22 19:14:16 UTC40 km deep
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=410003#
they do have quakes here but quite a large one for the area
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hi all
tonight
drizzly rain at first then slightly heavier bursts later on
temps around 8-10 degrees so not cold
tomorrow
a weak north westerly flow
rainfall moderate to around 8-9am then turning heavier for all before lunchtime
will start clearing away from the west of our region around 6pm
will linger in the east until past midnight
temps
will get to around 12-13 degrees but will cool down quickly once the rain passes through
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tomorrow night
a weak north west flow
rainfall
still got the rain over the east of our region but should clear not long after midnight
temps
temps look cold overnight
a frost looks more likely north-north west of our region and will be more patchy south of london
also watch for mist and localised fog patches
cloudcover
looks clear overnight
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monday
a weak mainly westerly flow but will be variable early
rainfall
it looks to stay dry
temps
around 10-12 degrees
and should be fairly sunny
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monday night
a weak variable flow
looks cloudy so temps although chilly should not be frosty
rainfall= nil
watch for fog
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tuesday
a weak variable east-north east flow
rainfall
starts dry
but rain likely south of our region with the odd heavier burst
late pm
will have moved further north and will effect most of our region
temps
around 10-12 degrees
looks like a cloudy day too
anyway thats my lot
talk soon
john
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heres todays plus 3 so far
Saturday
22.11.2014 15:48:03 64.675 -17.424 3.6 km 4.2 99.0 6.2 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 14:50:17 64.674 -17.490 7.9 km 4.1 99.0 4.2 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 14:21:03 64.678 -17.427 0.7 km 3.7 99.0 6.4 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 12:39:33 64.677 -17.448 7.5 km 4.0 99.0 5.6 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 10:17:40 64.686 -17.508 7.2 km 3.9 99.0 5.1 km N of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 10:15:09 64.689 -17.408 9.5 km 3.9 99.0 7.8 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 07:56:29 64.659 -17.445 1.0 km 3.8 99.0 4.4 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 06:14:52 64.693 -17.480 9.8 km 4.1 99.0 6.3 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 05:02:12 64.687 -17.494 9.1 km 4.0 99.0 5.4 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 04:16:00 64.676 -17.454 8.6 km 4.4 99.0 5.3 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 03:25:35 64.684 -17.410 10.0 km 3.9 99.0 7.4 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 03:03:06 64.680 -17.444 2.3 km 3.8 99.0 6.0 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 02:23:36 64.685 -17.481 9.2 km 3.0 99.0 5.4 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 01:24:51 64.681 -17.409 9.3 km 3.6 99.0 7.2 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 00:33:39 64.690 -17.469 9.7 km 4.0 99.0 6.2 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 00:28:32 64.620 -17.528 7.9 km 3.7 99.0 2.3 km S of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 00:26:54 64.631 -17.514 5.3 km 3.6 99.0 1.2 km SSE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 00:25:12 64.636 -17.575 14.1 km 3.5 99.0 2.3 km WSW of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 00:17:12 64.671 -17.427 8.5 km 3.8 99.0 5.9 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 00:14:48 64.690 -17.483 9.2 km 4.3 99.0 5.9 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 00:11:40 64.664 -17.474 5.1 km 3.7 99.0 3.7 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 00:08:44 64.672 -17.508 7.4 km 3.4 99.0 3.7 km NNE of Bárðarbungahttp://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/#view=table
some shallow and some deep
all around ne but one of interest at WSW
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2947
hi rusty
got a feeling marathon rather than sprint comes to mind
but to be honest i aint got a clue what happens next
my gut feeling is this thing will do something out of the blue
and the NE flank collapse is still not out of the equation
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Cerro Negro de Mayasquer volcano news & activity updates: Cerro Negro de Mayasquer volcano (Colombia): continuing earthquakes, appearance of seismic tremorSaturday Nov 22, 2014 10:27 AM | BY: TThe seismic crisis that began last year continues at high intensity. During the ongoing swarm more than 206,000 earthquakes have been detected in an area 4 km south of the Chiles-Cerro Negro complex since 29 Sep alone. Daily numbers of quakes have ranged between 3700-5400 earthquakes.
While most quakes have been very small, a few were strong enough to be felt by local inhabitants.- All news about: Cerro Negro de Mayasquer volcano
- Information about: Cerro Negro de Mayasquer volcano
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Dukono volcano news & eruption updates
Saturday, Nov 22, 2014A series of stronger explosions and/or elevated ash emissions produced a plume at 8,000 ft (2.4 km) altitude extending almost 150 km to the west of the volcano.
:cold: coastal regions should avoid a frost
Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
Wednesday
26.11.2014 15:12:10 64.675 -17.469 6.9 km 4.0 99.0 4.7 km NE of Bárðarbunga
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/#view=table
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga/
nice and clear at present