john pike
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Posts posted by john pike
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hi frogesque
its possible
plus it may be related to this report on 5th
http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/Factsheet_Bardarbunga_20141105.pdf
geothermal cauldrons at bara
so hard to call whats happening but if the flow keeps up so does the risk of something larger happening
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the GPS station in the centre of Bardarbunga show that the subsidence of the caldera
has decreased. Other measurements do though show that the volume of the subsidence increases with the same rate as it has done sincethese measurements started in September. This indicates that the flow of magma from Bardarbunga is not decreasing. -
list of plus 3 today
Friday
07.11.2014 18:33:05 64.670 -17.450 1.1 km 3.5 50.5 5.0 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
07.11.2014 14:40:51 64.667 -17.411 5.5 km 4.4 99.0 6.3 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Friday
07.11.2014 14:21:57 64.683 -17.462 7.4 km 4.2 99.0 5.7 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Friday
07.11.2014 07:11:23 64.658 -17.514 5.6 km 5.4 99.0 2.1 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Friday
07.11.2014 02:38:01 64.688 -17.453 6.9 km 3.9 99.0 6.4 km NE of Bárðarbungahttp://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/#view=table
note the top one waiting review
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga/
still nowt to see on the cams
http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/areas/
but maybe see something on sunday assuming he wind keeps down
gps dropping but stable not quickly
what happens next ????
keep watching to find out
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Holuhraun Eruption Still Going Strong By Zoë Robert November 06, 2014 10:36 Updated: November 07, 2014 16:43
Photo: Bernard Meric.
The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar intensity. Around 200 earthquakes were detected in the caldera between Monday and yesterday morning, according to the latest Status Report from the Civil Protection Department’s Scientific Advisory Board, published yesterday.
Observation of the eruption is becoming more difficult for scientists in the field due to increasingly difficult driving conditions in the area. There has been a lot of snowfall.
The GPS station in the center of Bárðarbunga volcano—the lava erupting in a fissure in Holuhraun originates in the Bárðarbunga magma chamber—shows that the subsidence of the caldera continues at a similar rate as in the last few weeks. Measurements carried out from the air show that subsidence of the caldera has now reached 44 meters (144 feet).
The energy of the geothermal areas in Bárðarbunga volcano in Vatnajökull now measures several hundred megawatts and the melting of glacial ice is estimated at approximately 2 cubic meters per second.
The Aviation Color Code for Bárðarbunga remains at ‘orange,’ which is used to indicate when a volcano is exhibiting heightened unrest with increased likelihood of eruption or when a volcanic eruption is underway with no or minor ash emission.
A sub-glacial eruption is still a possible future scenario and scientists remain on the alert.
http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/11/06/holuhraun-eruption-still-going-strong
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The 2008 Mogul earthquake swarm shook our area for months. Notable quakes ranged from a 3.6 to a 4.7. Right now a similar swarm is happening to our north and it is more severe than the Mogul swarm. In Mogul, significant quakes were spaced out over a period of weeks. Quakes of the same magnitude have happened in this swarm but they have happened over the period of a day instead of a week. Denio, Nevada is the closest town to the swarm. Denio is on the Nevada-Oregon border in Humboldt County. Since the swarm started 3 months ago, 550 quakes larger than a magnitude 2, 40 larger than a 3, and at least 5 larger than a magnitude 4 have struck. "We were kinda expecting a magnitude 5 to come out of this sooner or later because it was so similar to Mogul and the Hawthorne swarms and low and behold it just happened to be in the middle of the night," said Graham Kent with the Nevada Seismology Lab. The biggest quake so far, a magnitude 4.7, struck at 12:34 Thursday morning. That is the same size as the biggest Mogul quake, but it likely won't be the biggest quake in this swarm. Seismologist worry the coming quakes are growing bigger. "If whether we all just jump a couple rungs and get into the 6 level and communities around Lakeview, Denio and over by Surprise Valley in California start to be affected in terms of being able to cause damage," said Kent. We might feel some shaking but the swarm likely won't affect us in Reno. It's important to watch because it can teach us about future swarms. "What we can learn from this swarm up by Denio will also help us again have a better sense of what is the scope of possibilities," said Kent. Earthquake swarms are something that are unique to our area. Where California may experience a major earthquake followed by several aftershocks, Nevada often has foreshocks that build in intensity toward a larger magnitude earthquake.
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/index.php?pageid=event_desc&edis_id=EQ-20141107-45909-USA
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6.6 - 72km NNE of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea 2014-11-07 03:33:54 UTC
SummaryLocation and Magnitude contributed by: USGS National Earthquake Information Center6.044°S, 148.210°E
Depth: 43.2kmLocation6.044°S 148.210°E depth=43.2km (26.8mi)
Nearby Cities- 72km (45mi) NNE of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea
- 154km (96mi) ENE of Lae, Papua New Guinea
- 214km (133mi) NE of Bulolo, Papua New Guinea
- 218km (135mi) NE of Wau, Papua New Guinea
- 392km (244mi) NNE of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea
Tectonic SummarySeismotectonics of the New Guinea Region and VicinityThe Australia-Pacific plate boundary is over 4000 km long on the northern margin, from the Sunda (Java) trench in the west to the Solomon Islands in the east. The eastern section is over 2300 km long, extending west from northeast of the Australian continent and the Coral Sea until it intersects the east coast of Papua New Guinea. The boundary is dominated by the general northward subduction of the Australia plate.
Along the South Solomon trench, the Australia plate converges with the Pacific plate at a rate of approximately 95 mm/yr towards the east-northeast. Seismicity along the trench is dominantly related to subduction tectonics and large earthquakes are common: there have been 13 M7.5+ earthquakes recorded since 1900. On April 1, 2007, a mate.1 interplate megathrust earthquake occurred at the western end of the trench, generating a tsunami and killing at least 40 people. This was the third mate.1 megathrust event associated with this subduction zone in the past century; the other two occurred in 1939 and 1977.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usc000sv94#summary
http://ntwc.arh.noaa.gov/?p=PAAQ/2014/11/07/nen7mq/1/WEAK53
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/index.php?pageid=seism_volcano&rid=442645%C2'> (volcanoes close to quake)
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Thursday
06.11.2014 18:26:29 64.661 -17.406 0.1 km 4.8 99.0 6.2 km ENE of Bárðarbunga
updated quake
and only 0.1km deep again
not much to say tonight
no cams viewable either
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Volcanic activity worldwide 6 Nov 2014: Santiaguito volcano, Popocatépetl, Bardarbunga, Kilauea, Fu...
Thursday Nov 06, 2014 14:27 PM |Webcam view of the eruption this afternoon (Mila webcam)Smaller pyroclastic flow at Sinabung todayUpdated map of the lava flow in Pahoa as of 5 Nov 2014 local time (HVO)Explosion at Popocatépetl ejecting incandescent material on the upper flanks on the evening of 4 NovAsh plume from an explosion at Santiaguito on 3 Nov 2014Bardarbunga (Iceland): The Holuhraun fissure eruption continues with amazing stability. By now, more than 1 cubic kilometers of magma has been erupted and covers almost 70 square km (which implies an average thickness of 15 meters).
The depression in the ice above the caldera continues to deepen, likely a combined result of increased melting due to increased geothermal heat flow and the continuing subsidence of the caldera itself.
Sinabung (Sumatra, Indonesia): Several, but generally smaller pyroclastic flows occurred today at the volcano. They affected the southern slopes.
Kilauea (Hawai'i): The lava flow in Pahoa has not advanced at its leading edge and only minor breakouts have enlarged it at its sides.
According to HVO and visual impressions, current supply rates are low, giving the town some extra time for the time being - until a new surge of lava arrives at the flow front to give it a new push.
From HVP's most recent update:
Popocatépetl (Central Mexico): The volcano remains a little bit more agitated when compared to most of the past weeks. Strong glow at the summit indicates magma arriving in the inner crater to add to the new lava dome. Small occasional explosions and near-constant steam and gas emissions accompany this process.
CENAPRED commented on the elevated phase of activity that occurred during 4-5 November. A series of approx. 200 small explosions started on 20h local time on 4 Nov, producing a continuous plume of steam, gases and small amounts of ash of about 1 km in height, and the discontinuous emission of incandescent fragments onto the northern and eastern outer slopes to distances of 800 m from the crater rim.
This phase was visible on seismic recordings. It is likely to correspond to a phase of more intense lava dome growth. It is not thought to be a precursor of stronger activity in the near future and the alert status remains unchanged at "Yellow Phase 2".
Santiaguito (Guatemala): Explosive activity has returned to the Caliente lava dome after several months of absence. At least 3 explosions per day were seen during the recent days.
Most of them were small, but some produced plumes reaching several hundred meters in height. At the same time, the viscous lava flow to the southeast remains active and continues to advance slowly.
Fuego (Guatemala): Activity has been relatively weak today, with mostly smaller and only one medium-sized explosion recorded by the observatory.
The latter produced an ash plume rising 800 m and drifting 10-12 km to the SW, causing light ash fall in Panimache, Morelia, Santa Sofia, Panimache II and nearby areas.
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M 4.6 - ICELAND - 2014-11-06 18:26:34 UTC
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=407326
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Wednesday
05.11.2014 18:19:43 64.673 -17.372 2.8 km 4.5 99.0 8.3 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Wednesday
05.11.2014 16:29:31 64.676 -17.475 7.6 km 3.1 99.0 4.7 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Wednesday
05.11.2014 14:01:26 64.620 -17.401 4.0 km 4.8 99.0 6.5 km ESE of Bárðarbunga Wednesday
05.11.2014 03:23:59 64.678 -17.454 5.6 km 4.7 99.0 5.5 km NE of Bárðarbunga Wednesday
05.11.2014 00:29:10 64.677 -17.467 6.9 km 3.7 99.0 5.0 km NE of Bárðarbunga
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/#view=table
list of plus 3 today
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Long-Term Effects of Eruption Pollution to Be Studied By Zoë Robert November 05, 2014 15:19 Updated: November 05, 2014 15:20
The haze from SO2 pollution in the East Fjords in early September. Photo: Zoë Robert.
The Icelandic government approved an additional ISK 690 million (USD 5.6 million, EUR 4.5 million) in funding to various organizations for costs both already incurred and expected in relation to the eruption in Holuhraun earlier this week, ruv.is reports.
Part of the funding will go to research on the long-term effects of the sulfur dioxide (SO2) pollution emitted from the eruption on humans by the Directorate of Health.
Chief Epidemilogist Haraldur Briem has previously claimed that the pollution poses no long-term effects because high levels do not exist in populated areas for long periods of time. He referenced a study of SO2 pollution carried out among inhabitants in Japan where an eruption has lasted seven years.
The Department of Civil Protection will continue to monitor the Holuhraun eruption site in the northeastern highlands over the winter.
A minimum of two police officers at a time will remain at the cabin in Drekagil, close to the site. The purpose is to both monitor the eruption itself, which is not always possible via webcam, as well as any people in the area.
http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/11/05/long-term-effects-eruption-pollution-be-studied
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http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/alert/?id=UWQ29;LDG&date=2014-11-05
16,16
probably around 4.7
update when reviewed
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Volcanoes Today, 5 Nov 2014: Popocatépetl volcano, Kilauea, Piton de la Fournaise, Sinabung, Sakurajima, Copahue
Wednesday Nov 05, 2014 09:00 AM |Pyroclastic flow on Sinabung's western flank on 3 NovUpdated map of the lava flow in Pahoa as of 3 Nov 2014 (no major changes until early 5 Nov))Webcam shot of glowing bombs ejected from Popocatépetl volcano this morningAsh emissions from Copahue 4 Nov 2014Seismic activity under La Réunion in 2014; the black dot represents the recent earthquakes under Piton de la Fournaise volcano (image: OVPF)Sakurajima (Kyushu, Japan): The volcano's activity is currently elevated. At least 3 explosions yesterday produced ash plumes that rose to more than 10,000 ft (3 km) altitude.
Sinabung (Sumatra, Indonesia): Growth of the viscous lava dome and lava lobe on the southeastern flank continues. Several pyroclastic flows, mostly smaller ones, have occurred from time to time during the past days.
At least some of them seem now to affect the previously untouched western flank, perhaps as the result of the changed topography at the summit due to the accumulated lava.
Kilauea (Hawai'i): USGS staff from HVO measured the lava flow yesterday and reported that "the leading edge of the flow has not advanced since last Thursday, October 30, but the flow continued to inflate, and minor breakouts were scattered across the flow interior behind the flow front.
The most significant (although still minor) breakouts were occurring about 370 meters (405 yards) above Apaʻa Street on Tuesday afternoon.
A brief helicopter overflight on Tuesday afternoon confirmed that little surface lava is present on the June 27th flow field. The outbreaks on the north and south margins of the flow near Kaohe Homesteads have also subsided relative to a few days ago."
Popocatépetl (Central Mexico): The volcano's activity remains essentially unchanged. A new lava dome is slowly growing in the inner summit crater and produces glow at night and occasional small explosions.
During the past 24 hours, activity has been a bit more intense. An explosion 20 minutes ago sent incandescent material to approx. 600 m distance outside the crater rim.
Video from the volcano's activity during the past 24 hours:at bottom of page
Copahue (Chile/Argentina): Light ash emissions occurred yesterday from the volcano. Glow continues to be visible from the crater at night.
SERNAGEOMIN keeps the volcano's alert status unchanged at yellow.
Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion): There are signs that a new eruption could be on its way: an increasing number of shallow earthquakes has been registered under the volcano recently.
The volcano observatory (OVPF) and the prefecture raised the alert level to 1 (on a scale of 0-3), which includes some access restrictions to the enclos (the caldera of the volcano) ##############
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Seismic activity in Bardarbungacontinues to be strong.SinceMonday the 3 of November, 200 earthquakes have been detected in the caldera.The largest measured earthquake was on Tuesday, November 4.at 20:45 of M4,8.A total of 15 earthquakes were of sizes between M 4 and 5; 15 of sizes between M3 and 4. No earthquakes largerthan M5 have been observed since Sunday.The GPS station in the centre of Bardarbunga showthat the subsidence of the caldera continues with similar rateas it has been doing over the last few weeks.Measurements carried out from the air show that the greatestsubsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera has now reached 44 meters.Energy of the geothermal areas in Bardarbunga is now few hundred megawatts and the melting of water isestimated around 2 cubic meters per. second.Aerial observations on Tuesday November 4show that thegeothermal cauldrons in Báðarbunga have deepened by 5-8 metersover the past 11 days.
from imo (link supplied)
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http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/
and the cams are viewable at present
looks a bit chilly there
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Wednesday
05.11.2014 14:01:26 64.620 -17.387 8.7 km 4.8 99.0 7.1 km ESE of Bárðarbunga
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/#view=table
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hi all
the drumplots have all jumped
i have been checking water flow
at present all seems normal although i expect imo have got their eyes on that even if they wait
until tomorrow to review the quakes
going to shoot off now as bed calls
same again tomorrow
nite all
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and have now lost cams
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look at the blue line all
wow
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2014-11-04 23:23:32.2 55.07 N 7.61 W 30 mb 5.6 A: IRELAND
spelling is too close
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=407039
called 4.7 there
again expect this to be amended up
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http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/alert/?id=UWK04;LDG&date=2014-11-04
oh dear
sorry guys
quick reading and my bad
the one i said may be a 6 was for ireland not iceland
expect this to be a ghost quake
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Google Earth KML
Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=318&y=147&run=12&runpara=0&col=1&type=0&ext=1
hi blue
try the above
it shows the parallel on the ensembles if that helps