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john pike

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    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by john pike

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120.gif

    if you look to the west we have the 528 dam line

    coming towards the uk on the sunday fax chart

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=seatemps;sess=

    sea temperatures look below average

    be interesting to see what the fax charts

    show on wednesday and thursday night

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

    ensembles still have a big scatter from 18th so still

    no real answers there yet :wallbash:

    i still think people are writing off winter too quick :rolleyes:

    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

    i think uncertain comes to mind here

    a change looks like happening from 17th-18th

    to cooler weather but more runs needed to get

    a clearer picture

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/

    going by the fax charts it certainly looks wet and windy

    up to saturday

    in about 2 days time we should get a better idea of the

    outlook as the fax charts will show the 17th by then

    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

    interesting ensemble for london

    could be interesting for us 9th to 11th

    there is still a big spread of temperatures after the 11th

    so it still looks like a very uncertain period after that :cc_confused:

    however in fi there seems to be more colder options showing

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/

    fax charts have improved showing 528 dam over the uk on monday

    if everything moved further west these charts would be :yahoo:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

    met office still keeping the warnings up

    i am not commenting on this because i do not have a clue

    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    hello yamkin

    i agree with you about exciting times ahead

    the charts are still unsure where this low is going

    look at the ensembles

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

    very rare we see confusion so close

    look at the blue line( Control run)

    that would make gfs look mild :drinks:

    i think friday could cause a few surprises

    and we will not know until right at the last minute

    a question for you yamkin

    do you remember before the last cold spell the models

    had a load of problems with a low coming in and got it wrong

    do you not think this seems similar

    john

    London And Southeast Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    if you look at the fax charts http://www.metbrief.com/EGRR.html

    they show an easterly starting on thursday which looks dry

    on friday the winds look north westerly but still cold with wintery showers

    look to the noth east where a low has developed

    saturday shows an easterly again with showers nearby and the air out to

    the east looks cold with the 510 dam line getting fairly close

    friday night could be interesting if the low showing friday morning

    heads towards the south east.

    i have been following the fax charts and the seem to be fairly

    consistant lately.be interesting to see where the 510 dam line

    ends up tomorrow when sundays chart will be showing

    i do not think the cold weather has given up yet

    john

    fax charts still consistant with last night but still uncertain how

    close this low will be to us over friday afternoon-evening.

    the saturday and sunday charts look fairly cold with easterly winds

    still showing.The charts do not show much precipitation but convention

    could build up due to the slightly warmer sun.

    overnight temperatures look very cold friday night onwards.

    i will do another update on the fax charts tomorrow and hopefully they will

    stay consistant.

    john

    London And Southeast Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    if you look at the fax charts http://www.metbrief.com/EGRR.html

    they show an easterly starting on thursday which looks dry

    on friday the winds look north westerly but still cold with wintery showers

    look to the noth east where a low has developed

    saturday shows an easterly again with showers nearby and the air out to

    the east looks cold with the 510 dam line getting fairly close

    friday night could be interesting if the low showing friday morning

    heads towards the south east.

    i have been following the fax charts and the seem to be fairly

    consistant lately.be interesting to see where the 510 dam line

    ends up tomorrow when sundays chart will be showing

    i do not think the cold weather has given up yet

    john

    London And Southeast Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    the london ensembles look in fair agreement

    for a cool down from 3rd March onwards

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

    t48 fax chart http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ukmomod;sess=

    shows the centre of the low pressure closer to the south east uk than last

    nights fax so a little more concerning.

    think we will have to nowcast this storm and although i enjoy stormy

    conditions i think i would prefer to see this storm move away from us.

    London And Southeast Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    if you look at the fax charts

    t60 http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack1a.gif

    low pressure heading close

    t72 http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack2.gif

    centre of low pressure (looks like 980)

    is in the Channel between south east uk and France.

    t96 http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack2.gif

    shows low pressure moved away very quick

    although see the 528 dam line across the uk

    t120 http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack2.gif

    shows the 528 dam line moving towards the Midlands

    this also shows another low pressure system coming

    in from the South West which if it goes below the uk

    could turn the winds Easterly from thursday onwards next week

    although whether this would be dry due to high pressure being close

    to the uk is too far out to say.

    the storm for Sunday according to these charts would be gusty for South

    coasts and the South East at the moment but a movement of 100 miles either

    way would make a huge difference and still needs watching.

    watching this storm develop will be interesting as it could be a forcasters

    nightmare and could end up being a now cast scenerio.

    thats how i see it now and i bet it will be totally different tomorrow

    john

    London And Southeast Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    18z looks good for a few days

    from what i can see from fri 19th East areas may get some light snow

    in the evening.Sunday 21st South East should see light snow showers.

    Monday 22nd shows a Channel low which might give some heavier snow for

    a time which should be around until Tuesday morning.

    This could all change by the morning.

    The only concern is that the 18z is showing the jet come to life around

    the 28th although this is a long way off.

    This is my first attempt at this so lets see what happens

    :80: lets hope i am not doing this later.

    john

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