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john pike

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    London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by john pike

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=9&ech=6&runpara=0&mode=1 :shok:

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=9&ech=192&runpara=0&mode=1 :yahoo:

    a lot of very cold ensemble members tonight

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

    9th to 15th cold enough for snow ?

    certainly ensembles show enough precipitation

    uppers are very close hovering between -5 to -10

    if gfs is wrong with only 3 days to go that would

    be remarkable

    time will tell though

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1441.gif

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1681.gif

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1921.gif

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm2161.gif

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm2401.gif

    ecmw run :rolleyes:

    London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by john pike

    18z gfs

    http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030518-0-102.png

    http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030518-0-126.png

    http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030518-0-150.png for snowy :cold:

    http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030518-0-174.png

    http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-0-228.png

    still sticking to a colder outlook

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=0&carte=2000

    run the sequence and we should be under a north westerly

    by thursday with what looks like a cold northerly to follow

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

    276-312 again gfs special easterly then after that shows

    possibilty of something warmer this is all fi at the moment though

    hello yamkin nice 12z run :D

    London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hey don't take it personally John :)

    You have to admit thought that the cold has been shown on the charts for an awful long time now but never appearing in the reliable time frame.

    I think this Northerly for next week is probably the closest we have gotten since December but even that is still too far away to get excited about yet I fear.

    hi jayces

    only kidding myself :p

    for what its worth the charts have been awful this year

    and made attempting to forecast anything past 5 days impossible

    however the only good thing about this northerly is gfs i feel

    tends to be better at predicting northerlies rather than easterlies

    the models have shown the colder spell for about 8 days now so

    maybe a late winter blast?

    lets try and work out what the 18z has to offer :80:

    London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Gritters out here for second night in a row...currently 1c with the ol' weather station forecasting snow! Think it's become attuned to my weather wishes :lol:

    :lol:

    hopefully next week your weather station will be right

    i reckon if the charts do not do a flip the site

    could get busy again :clap:

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=17&ech=6&runpara=0&mode=0

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=17&ech=192&runpara=0&mode=0

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

    run 17 with the big precipitation spike

    mega run but this is only for fun

    London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I'm very surprised with the MetO's latest forecasts over the next few days/weeks. Put it this way, Croydon Council have been TOLD to make sure their gritters are ready.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see the MetO's forecasts change towards the GFS colder trend.

    hello yamkin i am surprised too

    although people think of the 18z as the pub run for

    its wild swings,for the last 8 days the model has picked up

    on this cold spell from the 9th with very good consistency.

    i think in my opinion gfs is very good at predicting

    northerlys so i have more confidence in this rather

    than the failed easterly promises.

    only time will tell though

    London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/archives/2011030412/J192-21.GIF

    just for snowydayz

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=322&y=150

    ensemble mean goes between -5 to -10

    from the 9th to the 12th with precipitation

    should be cold enough for snow

    we are only talking 4 days away

    hello yamkin i feel if we are showing what the models

    are showing why not have a little ramp? :drinks:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

    look better in this format :cold:

    London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by john pike

    http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-0-120.png 9th

    http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-0-108.png

    http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-0-132.png 10th

    http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-1-132.png

    http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-0-150.png 11th

    http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011030418-1-150.png

    a selection of cold gfs 18z charts

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

    120 fax shohs 528 dam air over north of uk

    a couple more frames of 120 should show the north westerly showing

    and cold air covering the whole of the uk

    http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2011/03/04/basis18/ukuk/rart/11030918_2_0418.gif

    http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2011/03/04/basis18/ukuk/rart/11031018_2_0418.gif

    sorry had to finish on a ramp :yahoo::yahoo::yahoo:

    London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by john pike

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

    still high pressure all the way so dry and chilly

    except a front on saturday night which could give some

    light precipitation.

    we may see some sun but will probably be mainly overcast

    the 120 fax still shows the set up for a north westerly

    later on but will come into view in 2-3 days

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1262.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1264.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1264.png

    shows the northerly digging although not quite affecting the south east

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2282.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2284.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22817.png

    sunday 13th long way out but would give snow to us down here

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn30017.png

    wednesday 16th again long way out but cold still

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.29554655870445&lon=-0.5660377358490578

    interesting from the 9th

    also a lot of colder members showing again :yahoo:

    looks even better here :yahoo::yahoo:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

    mean temperature shows -5 on there

    just need it a little lower and i will be more confident

    of snow instead of sleety snow mix

    London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by john pike

    Because we've seen this situation on the charts come to nothing all too often over the last couple of months, in saying that outlook does look good for both sun and frost :drinks: , just can't see snow happening though now.:(

    i understand that

    however the charts seem to be unreliable chasing easterlies but

    these are cold north westerlys and tend to be picked up

    more reliably by the models (only my opinion)

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1921.gif

    still worth discussing though and we only have

    to the 21st on here to do so.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

    certainly not dry from 9th onwards will it be cold enough for snow?

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/mar/29/snow-forecast-british-summer-time this is for last year :whistling:

    nice to see you around yamkin

    London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=1&ech=6

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=1&ech=204

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=6

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=5&ech=6

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=5&ech=204

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

    lot of links but these show colder air coming down to the south

    from the 10th onwards with plenty of precipitation from a north

    westerly flow

    the jet stream has taken a more north west to south position which

    should help let the colder air head more southerly

    what we need to watch is the high pressure to our south west

    if this stays fairly flat this will let the cold air reach us

    if it builds and heads north it will deflect the colder uppers away

    from us.

    a long way out but could be interesting.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

    ecm 12z a similar pattern

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

    fax charts look similar up to 120 with cold up up north ready

    to head towards us

    i only guide from the fax charts so i will go to monday

    with chilly-cold to monday

    the is a weak front going over us saturday night so could be a

    small risk of light sleet or very light snow

    i am surprised to see it so quiet here

    London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by john pike

    Has anyone seen the 12z GFS?

    http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110302/06/93/h850t850eu.png

    Surely if this high moves north or west we'll be right on the money?

    If it moves north we get a bitter easterly and if it moves west we get clobbered by a cold northerly? Both would bring back cold temps.

    Anyone care to comment?

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.29554655870445&lon=-0.2830188679245289

    ensembles have picked up something around that day

    only 24-48 hour but certainly is cold but dry

    although that can change

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

    http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-180.png?12

    10th looks interesting

    http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

    12th looks better

    was that a ramp? :whistling:

    London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by john pike

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=6

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=1&ech=6

    gfs very similar to ecm tonight

    the jet stream is showing further south on the 18z against

    the 12z which is allowing quite a strong nw flow

    not the best location for the south east but it is a start

    look at the temperatures further north west :shok:

    still showing us losing the high pressure :yahoo:

    around the 8th-9th on both models which will at least give

    us some interesting weather.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

    high pressure all the way to sunday so dry but a couple

    of degrees higher than today but then feeling cooler

    again sunday with a north easterly flow

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.29554655870445&lon=0

    London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by john pike

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

    saturday chlly and dry

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.21457489878543&lon=-0.2830188679245289

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

    ensembles show dry to 9th

    a few colder options showing 6th on for a few days

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1441.gif

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=6&ech=6&runpara=0&mode=1

    could be worth seeing where this high goes

    been a good winter in december

    shame about the rest

    been nice talking to you all

    you never know winter may bite back, probably when we all

    give up looking for a cold spell

    bye all for now :cray:

    London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by john pike

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.21457489878543&lon=-0.2830188679245289

    gfs is a warm outlier but dry

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/brack4.gif

    cool and dry with the only excitement being some nightime frosts

    look like high pressure until 9th

    we could see some sleet tomorrow if showers

    get heavy enough

    i think the board maybe a bit quiet for a few days :lazy:

    sorry last day today its a shame we cannot have a last day rampede

    be back late goodnight

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