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john pike

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    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

    starting to show more colder members towards the end of the run

    a lot more runs needed but 15th february onwards i reckon

    could be when we start getting colder and hopefully an easterly

    i think the atlantic will calm down a lot more than the charts show

    if you look at the jet stream pattern it looks like on the 7 th

    onwards the charts are unsure what it is going to do

    probably will not be able to get a better grip of the outlook

    until at least the 5th

    at least we have something to get our teeth into again :smiliz19:

    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

    ensembles all over the place

    i get the feeling we have been here before with this

    low coming in and the models not certain whether it goes

    north south or right over us

    http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentraleGFSforecast.htm

    interesting to watch the 528 dam line go over the uk from

    the atlantic

    also watch the 510 dam line not too far behind it

    for what its worth i feel the models are overdoing the jet and the

    atlantic as they normally quiten down now

    to be honest lets hope this high pressure gets knocked away

    from the uk so we can at least start looking for the next colder spell

    http://www.sat24.com/

    i wonder if we could get something from the heavier looking cloud

    from the north east

    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.buienradar.nl/h.aspx?jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur1x1

    showers showing to the north east but look like hitting

    south east around 6-7am if they hold strength

    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    good for looking for homegrown showers or streamers

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/

    fax charts look cold

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

    still cold to the 1st

    2 days slightly warmer

    then 3rd onwards big scatter so models could change

    either way

    still showing very dry to the 3rd

    but after that precipitation spikes showing

    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

    still looks cold

    bit of a spread on the 1st

    probably the charts still unsure what this high will do

    the ensembles look very dry except for the end of the run

    Looks ideal for a Thames streamer, and the Met Office ALWAYS underestimate PPN with Ye Olde London Thames Streamer, BUT WE KNOW BETTER DONT WE!!???? :cold:

    hi snowray

    i agree that theses streamers do not always get picked

    up until the last minute.

    lets hope for loads of instability from the estuary with no warning :diablo:

    going for an early night as could be a late one wednesday

    night all

    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by john pike

    I loovvveezzz to se happy people on here, lots to look forward to then. :clap:

    Heres our streamer, may not look like much but it's certainly more than flurries for the lucky ones in the firing line!

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax60.gif

    :whistling:

    sorry should have added that the 528 dam line is

    over the south east on this fax chart with a bitter

    Easterly wind

    we have the ingredients for a thames streamer or kent streamer

    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn662.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6617.png

    wednesday night to thursady looks decent

    lets hope we get some precipitation

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax60.gif

    very cold sourced easterly showing

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72.gif

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png

    gfs 18z is a cold run :smiliz19:

    getting there yamkin

    a thames streamer i feel is possible or a kent streamer

    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by john pike

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

    mean temperature drops from wednesday

    notice more spikes showing at the bottom of the london ensembles

    i think the charts are starting to change and i think

    27th could give the south east some snow

    i expect monday or tuesday the charts will show

    a much colder spell for us in the south east

    from very end of jan early february via an easterly

    still a waiting game but gradually looking better

    for snow lovers

    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    There's no hint of a severe period. From our point of view, it will be a major shift from what the models are showing right now. Let's see what unfolds this weekend.

    hello yamkin

    i think the models will change quickly too

    as i said hopefully monday or tuesday they may start

    showing what the warnings are

    if the atlantic weakens which is expected this

    time of year i would start to look east :smiliz19:

    i think this will be a long weekend

    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Memo just released to Croydon Council........Severe weather to commence approach from East next week.

    hello yamkin

    thanks for the update

    for what its worth i think the charts

    are showing to much strength in the atlantic

    and everything will be shown much further west

    on the charts.

    i would hope the charts get a better grip

    of this by monday or tuesday

    i feel an easterly coming too :smiliz19:

    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1262.png

    nice chart for 6 days away

    i can see the charts changing soon as the atlantic

    becomes more quiet now and things should start shuffling

    things more to the West

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/

    this still shows high pressure over us but does

    seem to be moving to the west

    the charts will hopefully give us a better idea

    of the outlook by friday or saturday

    my feeling is towards the very end of the month

    and into february we should all start looking to the East :yahoo:

    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1142.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1442.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2042.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3002.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3241.png

    very different charts from earlier and they scream

    potential for end january start february :rolleyes:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1262.png

    closer time frame would give a strong chance of snow for

    the south east sunday and early part of next week

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120.gif

    fridays fax shows a weak easterly but worth

    watching these over the next couple of days

    to see how they unfold

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

    ensembles look good as well

    winters over :fool::doh: :lol:

    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

    18z ensembles for london starting to get colder from 19th onwards :yahoo:

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120.gif

    high pressure over us but would start to feel cold

    528 dam line getting closer from the east

    now we have to watch where the high goes

    i think the fax charts over the next few days

    will be very interesting

    London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by john pike

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess= :whistling:

    gfs is not a cold outlier

    in fact there are colder options :smiliz19:

    ECM1-240.GIF?14-0

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

    long way out but hopefully a trend the models start to agree on

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/senspanel2401.html

    i posted these for the 23rd the other day and they were all over the place

    these are for the 24th and they seem to have a much better agreement now

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