Nick F
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UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-03-29 07:28:59Valid: 29/03/2023 0600 - 30/03/2023 0600Click here for the full forecast
THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 29 MARCH 2023-
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A spate of violent tornadoes has killed at least 26 people in southern states of the USA over the last few days, this blog looks at why parts of North America experience such powerful and deadly twisters.
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La Nina is over, with ENSO neutral conditions for now, El Nino is forecast to develop later this year, the warming of the tropical Pacific could add an additional 0.2C to global temperatures, pushing the world close to exceeding 1.5C warming for the first time, but perhaps not until 2024.
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UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-03-24 08:18:07Valid: 24/03/2023 0600 - 25/03/2023 0600Click here for the full forecast
THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 24TH MARCH 2023-
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UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-03-23 09:50:26Valid: 23/03/2023 06z to 24/03/2023 06zClick here for the full forecast
THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 23 MARCH 2023-
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UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-03-22 10:21:10Valid: 22/03/2023 0600 - 23/03/2023 0600Click here for the full forecast
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - WEDS 22 MARCH 2023-
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My local official weather station is Kenley, it's an airfield on the plateau of the North Downs at 170m asl on the southern edge of London, it's still owned by the RAF and was once a strategic airfield for the Royal Flying Corps in the First World War and the RAF in the Second World War. Now it is used mostly for launching and landing gliders, when the airfield is not being used, the general public can walk up and down the runways.
Kenley Revival | Sharing the history of a Battle of Britain airfield
WWW.KENLEYREVIVAL.ORG-
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A look at the ongoing barrage of atmospheric rivers bringing flooding rains and deep snowfall to the mountains in California that started in late December. More rain on the way this week as more storms hit the drenched state.
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UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-03-18 08:54:25Valid: 18/03/2023 0600 - 19/03/2023 0600Click here for the full forecast
THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SATURDAY 18 MARCH 2023-
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THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRIDAY 17TH MARCH 2023
Issued 2023-03-17 07:40:14
Valid: 17/03/2023 0600 to 18/03/2023 0600Forecast Details
Upper trough to the west of Ireland Friday morning will shift east across western Britain through the forecast period, becoming diffuse. Low 100 miles west of Shannon 983mb at 06z expected 50 miles west of Ireland 997mb by midnight tonight. A mild, moist southerly flow covers the UK and Ireland on Friday, unstable to surface heating.
A frontal wave moving northeast out of France will bring a spell of rain across SE England / E Anglia this morning, clearing out into the North Sea by noon. Otherwise, widespread showers developing across the UK and Ireland through the day, spreading north/northeast, and turning increasingly heavy in places, with hail and thunder, as surface heating in sunny spells increases lapse rates / instability beneath middle level airmass falling as low as -25C spreading northeast. Despite weak vertical shear, occluded fronts spiralling around low moving into the west of Ireland and lobes of vorticity moving north ahead of the upper trough approaching the west may organise showers / thunderstorms into bands or clusters – bringing the risk of localised flooding.
Tonight, some high resolution models are indicating some mid-level instability pushing northeast across southern areas of England – which may support heavy showers spreading north, perhaps with the odd rumble of thunder.
Issued by: Nick Finnis
Forecast on the website: https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective
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UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-03-17 07:40:14Valid: 17/03/2023 0600 to 18/03/2023 0600Click here for the full forecast
THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRIDAY 17TH MARCH 2023-
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A look at weather prospects through to the end of the month. Low pressure looks to dominate the next days, with above average temperatures and rain or showers at times. Hints of colder conditions perhaps returning towards the end of the month.
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14 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Another cold outbreak from the N/Ne again later on this month is looking possible.You would not rule it out.CET for March in Northern Scotland going to be way below normal if that comes off.
Very cold air in the Arctic.Iceland been having a very cold winter and now Spring.
Central England Temperature in northern Scotland, how does that work?
Hadley CET 3.4 or an anomaly of -2.3C up to the 11th.
Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK-
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Doesn't appear to be a great deal of consistency in the medium to extended range from operational model outputs at the moment. And the EC clusters don't really clear the waters.
Wave lengths beginning to change now with the season but also we have lag of MJO at high amplitude, almost off the RMM plot, through 8 and I - which the composites show higher heights around Greenland and Iceland and lower heights to the south.
March phase 8 and 1 high amplitude
March phase 8 and I in neutral ENSO
EC and GEFS ens mean suggesting day 10 a similar albeit not carbon copy of the patterns above:
Potential for brief easterly or northeasterly there in the medium range, if next week's trough moving in from the Atlantic following the northerly clears east onto the near continent, but EC does appear to want to hang this trough back to the SW. But with the blocking signal around Greenland and Iceland - the jet should be supressed and thus potential for further reloads of cold lurking close to the north after the northerly reload on Tuesday. Don't think winter is done with us after the cold shot early next week.
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29 minutes ago, Arch Stanton said:
Quite a drop in Temperatures here in N London overnight
00:00 8.5c
0100 8.5c
0200 8.5c
0300 8.5c
0400 7.7c
0500 6.5c
0600 5.2c
0700 4.5c
0800 3.6c (started to sleet)
0900 2.6c wet snow not settling
1000 2.3c windy, no precipitation
Impressive to see temps drop from midnight through the morning. Kenley airfield just down the road from here went from 8.7C and rain at midnight to 1.4C and snow at 10am
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Just started to snow here in Caterham-on-the-hill, NE Surrey on the southern edge of London
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Starting to snow in East Finchley, north London from twitter. Been settling over the Chilterns. Some hope for some snow here on the Surrey North Downs and maybe even briefly settling.
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According to the Met Office app forecast for my town, it's going to be 6C colder at midday tomorrow than at 2am tonight. Must be a change of airmass tomorrow morning. Cold air is returning, but probably not in time / too late in the morning to bring snow here as the low and its rain clears, maybe north of London though.
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The last sad looking patches of snow left from yesterday's 3 inches that fell, taken when I got up this morning, now nearly all gone. The worst kind of weather this morning, grey, cold and raining. Though temp is steadily rising, 6C now.
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Just rain here now at 190m asl in the NE Surrey Hills.
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Snowing big flakes now here in Caterham-on-the-hill
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21 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:
Looks like you got the heavy stuff coming in 10-15 minutes on the radar
Yep, snow is starting to pep up a bit with more and bigger flakes
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Still snowing lightly here. Son's managed to get some sledging in on Coulsdon Common near RAF Kenley on the NE Surrey / South London border
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Measured about 7-8cm / 3 inches about half hour ago, just found out son's school closed, so will likely go sledging before it all melts.
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UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast
in Latest weather updates from Netweather
Posted
THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 30 MARCH 2023