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Nick F

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    Autumn 2023

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Nick F

    October is often one of the wettest months of the year, so make the most of the sunshine next few days. After a dry 1st 10 days in the south, it looks like midweek until end of this month going to make up for it. Scotland could do without more rain after the recent deluge it experienced, but warning already out for the NE.

    October 2018 was the last below average October rainfall-wise, 2020 was particularly wet for England & Wales.

    Wettest October I remember in my lifetime was Oct 2000, was living in Brighton at the time and remember the roads turning into rivers and nearby Lewes the river flooding the town.

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    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

    Using the 00z what I see, extreme SE

    850s look warm through to Wednesday evening, there a slight disturbance on the Monday, still quite uncertain how much heat will deplete for a little while, shouldn't effect ground level to much, depending on cloud, after Wednesday, to much noise, looking at the ppn bar looks unsettled. Forgot chart

    image.thumb.png.c610098e911a807664875e1686d0ce34.png

    Looking at a trend GIF for GFS over last 6 runs for 18z Thursday in the coming week, it looks like the model today has backed-off  getting the colder polar air into southern areas on Thursday, it stays north.

    292edf56-b739-45b5-b5ee-5e546c4eee92.thumb.gif.31f2528415ebfcc306fe542219edf859.gif

    GFS backed off a cooler day tomorrow over England and Wales and now has it as warm as today, like the other models. Not sure we can trust it when it's cooler than others, a cold bias perhaps.

    GEFS.thumb.JPG.1ac29cb8275147340da421bb28d6df42.JPG

    After a slight cooling on Thursday to mid-teens for London, it warms up a bit on Friday. But a cooling trend after next weekend, but can we trust it?

     

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