Nick F

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-11-04 09:31:44 Valid: 04/11/2023 0600 to 05/11/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SAT 04 NOV 2023 Click here for the full forecast

Following hot on the heels of Storm Ciaran, another storm brewing over the Atlantic has been named by the Spanish Met Service Domingos. This storm will bring gusts of up to 80mph and large waves to Atlantic coasts of France and Spain. Here it will bring another 30-40mm of rain in the south. View the full blog here

Managed to spend a few hours down at Newhaven harbour watching the waves IMG_0097.mov IMG_0037.mov

Completely still here with the low centre just to the southwest. Strong winds earlier. Very wet night though.

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-11-01 22:49:55 Valid: 01/11/2023 2200 to 02/22/2023 1200 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS NIGHT / THURS MORNING (02 Nov 2023) Click here for the full forecast

A synoptic analysis looking at how Storm Ciaran has undergone explosive cyclogenesis today and will move in across SW England in the early hours of Thursday, bringing severe gales or storm force winds to NW France and through the English Channel, perhaps hurricane force winds with exposure. View the full blog here

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-10-28 17:01:30 Valid: 28/10/2023 1700 to 29/10/2023 0600 SEVERE WEATHER WATCH - SAT EVENING 28 OCT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

After a dry start to the month, the last few weeks have been very wet. However, the areas that have seen the most rainfall have been in the east, when normally it's more western areas. View the full blog here

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-10-26 07:10:56 Valid: 26/10/2023 0600 to 27/10/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 26 OCT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

Looks like southern and western coastal areas will come alive with heavy showers with hail and thunder Thursday / Friday - as cold air aloft (with origins over N Canada) spreads in from the west and low pressure moves in close to the west, later this week and creates steep lapse rates / CAPE above the relatively warm SSTs. Some may get inland across southern / SW counties of England and Wales . Staying down at the Dorset coast later this week too, so would personally enjoy seeing some flashes, rumbles and downpours.

All this rain, yet you can bet your bottom dollar some water companies will impose hosepipe bans next summer, like SW Water did this year, despite last autumn being pretty wet too and winter around average for rainfall in that part of the world. Really need to store more of this plentiful rainfall we get.

Some considerate driving by this lorry driver in Chesterfield, that mini just gets tossed around by the wave of flood water.

Pleasantly warm in the sunshine in the back garden just now, helped by little wind. Feels far away from what's going on up north.

Lol, and it's back ...

All that rain gathering to the south over France and heading north, some thundery, and heavy showers ahead of it, were the Met Office sure they wanted to cancel the yellow rain warning for SE England

Storm Babet is here and will bring persistent and heavy rain to parts of the UK to end the week, particularly NE Scotland - where a red warning is in force. Also Storm Aline further south will bring severe weather impacts to Spain and France. View the full blog here

Looks to me Aline low is separate from the low that moves up from the south over E England on some models, central England on others tonight / Friday. Tomorrow's low is a new low that forms in the left exit of a strong jet streak moving north over France. Can see on the fax for noon tomorrow the Aline low over western France and the new low over East Anglia, but both are secondary lows which circulate around the same parent low pressure system covering western Europe. Though track of new low tomorrow still varies model to model, 06z GFS seems further west.

Rain no longer looks an issue for the SE of England tomorrow, where MO issued a yellow warning. Though still some uncertainty with the track of that low that develops over E English Channel before drifting somewhere over England. Fax chart, EC and GFS for noon tomorrow shows the differences Pennines to N York Moors looks like it could receive large rainfall totals though, as occluded fronts become slow moving across N England to north of low progged somewhere from central S England to E Anglia, depending which model one looks at.

THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 19 OCT 2023 Issued 2023-10-19 06:22:16 Valid: 19/10/2023 0600 - 20/10/2023 0600 Forecast Details Upper trough over the N Atlantic continues to disrupt and extend SE into western Europe with progress east impeded by blocking upper-level ridge over Norwegian Sea. An upper low forms to south of Ireland on Thursday as the trough disrupts. Warm and moist airmass surging north ahead of the upper low SW of England, following rain band moving N across Scotland, will become increasingly unstable from the south from early afternoon, as a shortwave trough and associated cold pool moving north creates large scale ascent and steepens lapse rates. As a result, heavy showers and some thunderstorms look to develop and spread north across the southern half of Britain during the afternoon and evening, lightning most likely across S Wales, SW and central S England. Given recent rainfall leading to saturated ground, additional heavy rainfall from these showers or storms may lead to some localised flooding. Forecast here: Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-10-19 06:22:16 Valid: 19/10/2023 0600 - 20/10/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 19 OCT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

18z GFS has Friday low coming north out of France further east again and moving north more quickly rather than loitering. Still a lot of rain for parts of E England. 18z ICON pretty wet for SE / E England on Friday too, but low doesn't get very far north like GFS. Still a lot of uncertainty over track. Like I said earlier, probably down to sensitivities of the strength and position of the developmental left exit of a jet streak moving north over France - where Friday's low forms.

Wind really howling down the chimney this evening, more recently since it changed from easterly to southwesterly. Temps have really shot up across the SE this evening. For example, below, Heathrow was 12.8C at 4pm and 10pm it was 17.2C, warmest it's been all day.

12z GFS has a different take on Friday's low coming up from France, much further W than 06z run. It brings 2 areas with accumulations of 100mm+ over east Hampshire/ W Sussex & another over E Monmouthshire/ W Gloucestershire. UKV trending a similar track. But the track probably not nailed yet. The formation of the low over N France Friday morning perhaps senstive to the position of the left exit of the jet streak blasting north over France. IMO the low forms in this developmental area of the jet where upper winds diverge and surface winds converge to fill the void. But position of this still to be resolved. This low looks to deepen quite rapidly too while loitering somewhere over S England or SE/EA.

06z AROME nicely shows instability (CAPE shown by pink contours) and the threat of thunderstorms arrive from the south through tomorrow afternoon. My go to model for any thunderstorm risk now.

An early look at the possible weather patterns that may develop this coming winter. El Nino will be one of the biggest drivers of patterns, but will also look at other drivers that may play their part. View the full blog here