Nick F

Last Sunday afternoon 25C in the SE, today - struggling to reach 10-11C. Summer last weekend, but now definitely autumn

October is often one of the wettest months of the year, so make the most of the sunshine next few days. After a dry 1st 10 days in the south, it looks like midweek until end of this month going to make up for it. Scotland could do without more rain after the recent deluge it experienced, but warning already out for the NE. October 2018 was the last below average October rainfall-wise, 2020 was particularly wet for England & Wales. Wettest October I remember in my lifetime was Oct 2000, was living in Brighton at the time and remember the roads turning into rivers and nearby Lewes the river flooding the town.

Managed to catch a bit of a rainbow behind Heathrow airport looking north on the back edge of a shower moving southeast to the east recently A well-speckled satellite image early evening showing the showery polar NW flow today, with crisp blue skies in between.

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-10-12 21:33:29 Valid: 13/10/2023 0000 to 14/10/2023 0000 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 13TH OCT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

Not bad for 7th October, this wouldn't be bad for high summer either

Looking at a trend GIF for GFS over last 6 runs for 18z Thursday in the coming week, it looks like the model today has backed-off getting the colder polar air into southern areas on Thursday, it stays north. GFS backed off a cooler day tomorrow over England and Wales and now has it as warm as today, like the other models. Not sure we can trust it when it's cooler than others, a cold bias perhaps. After a slight cooling on Thursday to mid-teens for London, it warms up a bit on Friday. But a cooling trend after next weekend, but can we trust it?

Any prospect of snow seems so far off at the moment, 24C at Headcorn, Kent and climbing. Shame I'm working all day today and tomorrow.

Becoming very warm this weekend across southern Britain, as hot air spreads north over western Europe, temperatures perhaps reaching 25-26C. But can it be called an Indian Summer? View the full blog here

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-10-02 07:46:04 Valid: 02/10/2023 0600 to 03/10/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - MON 02 OCT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

Probably to do with wildfire smoke from Canada being drawn in across the Atlantic by Agnes.

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-09-27 08:01:19 Valid: 27/09/2023 0800 to 28/09/2023 0600 SEVERE WEATHER WATCH - WEDS 27 SEPT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-09-25 20:00:48 Valid: 26/09/2023 0600 to 27/09/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - TUES 26 SEPT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-09-21 09:03:02 Valid: 21/09/2023 0600 to 22/09/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 21 SEPT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-09-20 08:43:37 Valid: 20/09/2023 0600 - 21/09/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 20 SEPT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

Blog explaining what's behind the flooding and severe thunderstorms over past few days and also the prospect of more heavy rain on the way this week. View the full blog here

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-09-10 08:08:51 Valid: 10/09/2023 0600 - 11/09/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 10TH SEPT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-09-09 07:36:16 Valid: 09/09/2023 0600 to 10/09/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SAT 09 SEPT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

After a new September record today of 5 days in a row with temperatures exceeding 30C, the heat persists into the weekend, but slowly pushed towards the southeast, while risk of thunderstorms increases by Sunday. Turning cooler and fresher on Tuesday View the full blog here

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-09-07 13:18:51 Valid: 07/09/2023 1300 to 08/09/2023 0100 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 07 SEPT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-08-23 21:10:47 Valid: 24/08/2023 0000 to 25/08/2023 0000 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 24TH AUG 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-08-17 21:35:17 Valid: 18/07/2023 0000 to 19/07/2023 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 18TH AUG 2023 Click here for the full forecast

After a sunny & warm Thursday, the fine weather looks to breakdown in locally dramatic style by end of Friday as bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms move across the UK, while gales develop across the west, as deepening low moves north over Ireland. View the full blog here

The weather is settling down and turning warmer for a time, but a thundery breakdown looks like for many by the end of Friday. More settled again over the weekend, as high pressure builds and early next week could turn hot for a time, as a heat dome over France clips the southeast. View the full blog here

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-08-15 06:23:41 Valid: 15/08/2023 0600 to 16/08/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - TUES 15TH AUG 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-08-14 09:43:39 Valid: 14/08/2023 0600 to 15/08/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - MON 14TH AUG 2023 Click here for the full forecast