Nick F

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-03-22 10:21:10 Valid: 22/03/2023 0600 - 23/03/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - WEDS 22 MARCH 2023 Click here for the full forecast

My local official weather station is Kenley, it's an airfield on the plateau of the North Downs at 170m asl on the southern edge of London, it's still owned by the RAF and was once a strategic airfield for the Royal Flying Corps in the First World War and the RAF in the Second World War. Now it is used mostly for launching and landing gliders, when the airfield is not being used, the general public can walk up and down the runways. Kenley Revival | Sharing the history of a Battle of Britain airfield WWW.KENLEYREVIVAL.ORG

A look at the ongoing barrage of atmospheric rivers bringing flooding rains and deep snowfall to the mountains in California that started in late December. More rain on the way this week as more storms hit the drenched state. View the full blog here

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-03-18 08:54:25 Valid: 18/03/2023 0600 - 19/03/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SATURDAY 18 MARCH 2023 Click here for the full forecast

THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRIDAY 17TH MARCH 2023 Issued 2023-03-17 07:40:14 Valid: 17/03/2023 0600 to 18/03/2023 0600 Forecast Details Upper trough to the west of Ireland Friday morning will shift east across western Britain through the forecast period, becoming diffuse. Low 100 miles west of Shannon 983mb at 06z expected 50 miles west of Ireland 997mb by midnight tonight. A mild, moist southerly flow covers the UK and Ireland on Friday, unstable to surface heating. A frontal wave moving northeast out of France will bring a spell of rain across SE England / E Anglia this morning, clearing out into the North Sea by noon. Otherwise, widespread showers developing across the UK and Ireland through the day, spreading north/northeast, and turning increasingly heavy in places, with hail and thunder, as surface heating in sunny spells increases lapse rates / instability beneath middle level airmass falling as low as -25C spreading northeast. Despite weak vertical shear, occluded fronts spiralling around low moving into the west of Ireland and lobes of vorticity moving north ahead of the upper trough approaching the west may organise showers / thunderstorms into bands or clusters – bringing the risk of localised flooding. Tonight, some high resolution models are indicating some mid-level instability pushing northeast across southern areas of England – which may support heavy showers spreading north, perhaps with the odd rumble of thunder. Issued by: Nick Finnis Forecast on the website: https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-03-17 07:40:14 Valid: 17/03/2023 0600 to 18/03/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRIDAY 17TH MARCH 2023 Click here for the full forecast

A look at weather prospects through to the end of the month. Low pressure looks to dominate the next days, with above average temperatures and rain or showers at times. Hints of colder conditions perhaps returning towards the end of the month. View the full blog here

Central England Temperature in northern Scotland, how does that work? Hadley CET 3.4 or an anomaly of -2.3C up to the 11th. Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Doesn't appear to be a great deal of consistency in the medium to extended range from operational model outputs at the moment. And the EC clusters don't really clear the waters. Wave lengths beginning to change now with the season but also we have lag of MJO at high amplitude, almost off the RMM plot, through 8 and I - which the composites show higher heights around Greenland and Iceland and lower heights to the south. March phase 8 and 1 high amplitude March phase 8 and I in neutral ENSO EC and GEFS ens mean suggesting day 10 a similar albeit not carbon copy of the patterns above: Potential for brief easterly or northeasterly there in the medium range, if next week's trough moving in from the Atlantic following the northerly clears east onto the near continent, but EC does appear to want to hang this trough back to the SW. But with the blocking signal around Greenland and Iceland - the jet should be supressed and thus potential for further reloads of cold lurking close to the north after the northerly reload on Tuesday. Don't think winter is done with us after the cold shot early next week.

Impressive to see temps drop from midnight through the morning. Kenley airfield just down the road from here went from 8.7C and rain at midnight to 1.4C and snow at 10am

Just started to snow here in Caterham-on-the-hill, NE Surrey on the southern edge of London 20230310_091129.mp4

Starting to snow in East Finchley, north London from twitter. Been settling over the Chilterns. Some hope for some snow here on the Surrey North Downs and maybe even briefly settling.

According to the Met Office app forecast for my town, it's going to be 6C colder at midday tomorrow than at 2am tonight. Must be a change of airmass tomorrow morning. Cold air is returning, but probably not in time / too late in the morning to bring snow here as the low and its rain clears, maybe north of London though.

The last sad looking patches of snow left from yesterday's 3 inches that fell, taken when I got up this morning, now nearly all gone. The worst kind of weather this morning, grey, cold and raining. Though temp is steadily rising, 6C now.

Just rain here now at 190m asl in the NE Surrey Hills.

Snowing big flakes now here in Caterham-on-the-hill 20230308_125529.mp4

Yep, snow is starting to pep up a bit with more and bigger flakes

Still snowing lightly here. Son's managed to get some sledging in on Coulsdon Common near RAF Kenley on the NE Surrey / South London border 20230308_100023.mp4

Measured about 7-8cm / 3 inches about half hour ago, just found out son's school closed, so will likely go sledging before it all melts.

Looking nice and wintry at daybreak here in NE Surrey, snow has eased for now though.

Big fat flakes here the past hour in NE Surrey, piling up nicely, have to get the ruler out later, but must be a few inches now. 20230308_051220.mp4

Not often in the MOD most are just posting about the next few days, for so long we've been looking far ahead. Last time it was like this was tracking those lows threatening organised snow back in the early to mid-December 22 cold spell. But it is very fascinating but equally frustrating trying to get to grips with the model differences and working out the likely outcomes for snow amounts and extent more than 24 hours out. But our short-term fixation for snow chances is just as well, because the medium range looks rather disappointing for now.

A few bouts of snow will move east across south Wales and southern England from tonight and through to Thursday, rain on the coast. Then a risk of disruptive heavy and prolonged snowfall further north on Thursday into Friday morning. View the full blog here

Snowing again here in Caterham-on-the-hill, but not settling, hopefully will tonight. 20230307_141203.mp4

Snowing here at the moment in Caterham-on-the-hill at 190m asl, nice chunky flakes, no settling as too wet. 20230307_085326.mp4