AderynCoch

2.2mm so far in Brisbane. The January average is 159.6mm.

I find it hard to be too critical of the Met Office in this instance. Snow depths are notoriously difficult to forecast, even more so in a battleground scenario where a slight change in the positioning of the front can make a big difference in how much you get. This could easily have been a lot worse than it actually was. If anyone needs shooting it's the BBC radio presenter who said NW England would get nothing.

Melting?

Wow, must be at least six inches in Crewe already.

I'll also add that if London was forecast to get the kind of snow that's been forecast for the southern part of the region, I'm sure they'd get a red warning. I'm sure they got one in December 2010 when they got less snow than the NW did (and we definitely didn't get one then).

But the event in the build-up did scream red warning potential. People have had every reason to get excited. And it's far from over yet.

Someone sounds upset...

http://www.wirralcam...terfront2.shtml The Liverpool skyline can't be seen from Egremont, just across the river.

And so it begins. Have fun everyone. I on the other hand have to try to stop sweating.

Should be snowing in West Wirral according to the radar. It's still too dark to see on the West Kirby webcam though.

We're no worse off than anywhere else when it comes to battleground scenarios. If the east has any advantage over the west it's that it's slightly closer to the cold source and thus more likely to be on the right side of marginal - but this is a negligible difference considering how far the cold has travelled to get here. Also, the west has a slight advantage in that it's slightly closer to the mild source (i.e. the Atlantic), so that a battleground there would produce more snow than it would further east: the SW is generally even less favoured for snow than the NW, but there have been some prodigious falls of snow there (1891, 1978) for this very reason. This isn't one of those more common snow events like a northerly toppler, which favours Scotland and the east coast for geographical reasons. It's simply a lottery of where the battleground will occur: in February 2012 we were too far west and marginality worked against us, and earlier this week the same happened again - but this time the gripe is that we're too far east. The NW just needs that bit of luck.

The confusion over the warnings is being caused by the Met Office putting the south of the region under amber but placing a red symbol on the line to signify it - it's just a computing error. Amber it is. Still, if there's a straw to clutch, clutch it. I wouldn't be too downhearted about not being in the red - the small area that is is quite mountainous anyway.

By the way, does anyone recall seeing the "Hugo Low" spawned by a battleground front before, or has it simply been invented for this occasion to ruin things for the NW?

Whatever happens, it will still snow. 2-5cm is better than nothing, and as others have mentioned southwestern parts of the region are still in with a good chance of heavier snow. Can't afford more westward shifts though.

Sorry, it's all my fault. I ramped this thing to death last night. Even so it's not done and dusted yet, not to mention the potential for more snow events in the coming week.

You're in the 2-5cm band. The snow depth estimates tend to be conservative for some reason when it comes to Met Office weather warnings. I remember 2-5cm being bandied about for the snow event of 17th December 2010 but over 10cm fell widely and many places got over 20cm. The fact that "10-15cm quite widely" is being predicted tells me depths could be considerably more in many places.

At the moment it's looking like Monday could well be a repeat of Friday. Forget shovels and invest in a snowplough before it's too late. Ramping? Moi?

Sounds far-fetched, but the outlook does actually make this a realistic possibilty. The general consensus in the medium term appears to be for a cold reload from the NE - a sheltered direction for NW England. Think of those very cold nights in late November 2010 but with lots of snow on the ground. It could be cold enough to freeze hell.

I've got a feeling the amber warning will turn red tomorrow.

I know people like to use reverse-psychology to avoid putting a curse on proceedings, but since I'm not going to benefit one way or another I'll just say this - if Merseyside doesn't get significant snow by the weekend I'll eat Backtrack's entire sock collection. Big downgrades can happen close to the event, but even in that scenario there should be decent snow given how good things look at the moment. On top of all this, Friday isn't the only show on offer. There could already be snow on the ground before then, and there's definitely the chance of more snow afterwards - and with the jet tracking south and low pressure setting up shop over Europe, the cold looks locked in for the forseeable future. Dream synoptics.

Starting to get jealous here on the other side of the world. The current outlook really can't get much better for the traditionally snow-starved parts of the region. It'd be typical if Liverpool saw a once-in-a-generation snowfall and I wasn't there to see it!

So far this looks to me a lot like a repeat of the immensly disappointing February 2012 cold spell. There were two failed battleground events for the west then - I had to avoid most of the forum for about a week! I would say that the reason the east averages more snow than the west is because they are easily more favoured when it comes to easterly streamers and northerly topplers - two of the more common snow setups in the UK (the two most common?). I reckon the east only has a very slight advantage when it comes to battleground scenarios, as the origin of the cold air (Russia/Eastern Europe) is far away enough to render the difference in distance from the cold source negligible - Western England and Eastern England are pretty much the same distance from Russia. For the west then, all it takes is for the cold air from the east to advance just that little bit further to negate the mildness from the Atlantic - this didn't happen in February 2012, and it was terrible to watch. The fact that it seems to be happening again screams to me of rotten luck rather than normality (these aren't normal synoptics). Marginality by definition means you win some as well as lose some, and right now the marginal west is due a win in my book. Maybe Friday will be it. Good luck everyone.

How is it raining where you are and snowing in Preston? The west usually gets the crap end of the stick, but this event isn't making sense.

Mate, that's the summit of Snaefell - over 600m above sea level! There's nothing down in Douglas: http://www.visitisleofman.com/webcam/webcam.aspx?webcam=1

I'm glad I'm not back in Liverpool right now. The tension and anticipation of failure would be killing me! Surely not another February 2012 fail... I would definitely welcome some snow right now. If you don't like heat, don't go to Brisbane in January.