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coram

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Posts posted by coram

  1. Congratulations to Steve Murr on 10,000 posts. He, along with TEITS and Nick Sussex, is one of the three 'Big Beasts' on here. These are the guys who, unrestrained by professional obligations or a desire to associate themselves with a profession that they used to be part of, post with knowledge, insight and huge enthusiasm on the MOD thread. Thanks for your input Steve; I look forward to the next 10,000.

  2. Just seen Fergie's post on the model thread. Damn and blast. I think most of us knew the downgrade was coming and that there would be little in terms of heavy snow either from the low approaching from the south-west or from convection from the east. On the other hand what do the Chief Forecaster, Fergie or Nick F know.

  3. As those of us in the far east of the region always feared, the 'channel low' looks like it will be too far south to effect us. There is of course time for a correction north, but if anything it looks like the tendency is for a further movement south. Could still be very good for east Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, south Wiltshire and south west Dorset. It's been a pretty good winter in my part of the world and it would have been great to have had a snowy spell in early Spring, but unfortunately it doesn't look like it's going to happen.

    Good luck to those further south and west, I think some of you may get 10cm or more as long as the low doesn't move further south than it's currently predicted to be.

  4. Looks like we will be on about 4C by the 19th and then the possibility of a big fall over the last 10 days of the month. There appears to be good cross model agreement for an easterly setting up and for that easterly to last, in some form or another, for a week or so. If that does happen we are likely to end up with a sub 3C month. My prediction is for a 2.7C finishing point.

  5. Do you ever? blum.gif IIRC, not that I'm point scoring, you weren't right last time.

    Anyhow for now, like you perhaps, I am simply not brave enough to predict what will happen with this particular event.

    Tomorrow morning will tell us what we need to know. good.gif

    I am brave enough. I courageously predict that lying snow will only effect the far north-east of our area - i.e. Berkshire/Oxfordshire. I hope that I'm wrong.

  6. MetO are suggesting Croydon Council prepare for heavy snow help.gifyahoo.gifclap.gifcold.gif

    The intensity of the ppn will combine with the upper level cooling effect to produce snow. The low pressure coupled with the very cold air is very rigid, hence one of the reasons GFS is going for heavy snow.

    This could all change in a few hours time, but it is showing heavy snow at the moment biggrin.png

    Got a feeling that there will be further corrections south and west for the main band of snow, so you might just miss out. Why do I say this? Well, that's been the story so far this winter with both this slider and the one in January and of course because I am south and west of you. Sleet/snow at the moment here in north Hampshire with lying snow above 600ft.

  7. 100% snow cover this morning at 9am for the 7th morning in a row, with another 1cm falling in the early hours. The temperature has only gone above freezing on 3 or 4 days out of the last 10 and only then for a few hours. Don't think it has gone above 2C at all. Had snowfalls of 13cm, 2cm, 3cm and 1cm. In low lying north east Hampshire - about 240ft - I think it has been an excellent cold spell.

    Possibly be more on Friday (2-5cm?), although it will be a very wet and transient affair.

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