claret047
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Posts posted by claret047
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Just thought i would post on this forum ,to share a little bit of my knowledge .i am only an amateur but been into weather for probably 50 yrs .we do have modern technology now ,computers that can do trillions of calculations ,but you only have to look at the usual runs of the main modells to see how much the EXPECTED outlook changes twice per day .i find it helpfull when they all start seeing the same synoptic situation at say 192 hrs .but even this can change the following day .We just dont know whats around the next corner .but one thing i have noticed over the years and looking at all notable winter events [main cold spells that bring bitter snowy weather which make the headlines etc ]you usually get a few warning signs in advance i say usually but not always .odviously at the moment the synoptics look typical for the next 7/10 days but we do have the prospect of high pressure setting up to our east . in this situation the forecast modells will struggle .If you look at 10day outlooks for all mayor citys in northern hemisphere and keep a record and check back the end of that forecast is nearly always way out ,so there you have it ,we can use modell runs as a guide and the more talented of people on NET Weather are good at looking between the lines ,and sticking their knecks out .But as we all know the professionalls hold back untill most modells sing together ,and the other modells we dont see are also showing the same .anyhow as far as my expectations for this winter goes it would be great for a real mix ,fantastic synoptics lets say HIGH finland 1060 mb at some point ,but the greenland high feels left out so it produces a high of 1070mb . a low slow moving over N/WEST France with a 3day wrap around ,the odd polar low developing much further south and running right across us ,and of course a good easterly flow with plenty of disturbances embedded .Im not asking much .any how lets all enjoy what Mother nature throws at us this winter and hope we all get a little of what we fancy . anyhow i better move as my wife just mumbled ,i think ,on that computer again ,cheers Gang .
Hello there I do not tend to write much on the technical sites within Netweather as i have insufficient knowledge to make a competent contribution and do not want to make a complete fool of myself.
I do, however read Netweather every day and feel I am learning as i am going along.
There is one question that has been exercising my mind for some time and perhaps John Holmes or anyone else with Met Office experience may be able to answer. With the super capacity computers now available to forecast longer term trends I assume that these forecasts are more accurate than previously. Do they use data for example for events leading up to the 1947 and 1962/63 big freezes and perhaps the heatwaves of 1976 and 1977 on their current computers to produce a forecast that would come up with what actually happened further along line just to test the computers out?
Kind regards
Dave
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Horrible day here in Chelmsford. Is it likely to rain much longer?
Last Saturday Braintree postponed their game against Wrexham because of a waterlogged pitch and I guess they have had at least as much rain today. They have a televised FA Cup first round game against Tranmere around about lunchtime. I wonder if it will go ahead.
I still cannot believe how my team beat Colchester United 3-1 yesterday. We fully deserved the victory as well.
Steve C what did your mates think of it?
Looking forward to the draw after the Braintree game to see who we have in the next round
Kind Regards
Dave
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I would say pretty wet Friday and rain to slowly clear through Sat am leaving a mainly dry day at the Present and based on this pm output for precip,temps and wind are there aswell.It could change though
Thanks Jason
Expert?! I think it will have calmed down by then, certainly inland. I'll look at some charts in the morning.Of course you are!
Thanks.
Kind Regards
Dave
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What is wrong with the Red Beret ?
Hopefully SteveC will take some advice from me as to where to drink if he makes the away trip to the forthcoming game against the MK Dons !
It's clouded over here this afternoon but I did get a good walk and a pub lunch in while it was still reasonably nice, ended up over at Bancroft so actually got to see the skeleton cows in person...
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Hello MKsnowangel,
The Red Beret although it has improved a little over recent years has a bit of a reputation of not being the friendliest pub in the world.
Non locals in the past tended to have their faces rearranged
Coast or any other expert what is Saturday likely to bring us. Will the rain and wind have cleared by then?
Kind regards
Dave
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Morning Steve,
It is looking very windy for my location, interesting to see how this one pans out in the next couple of days.
I hope the wind dies down for Saturday. I got absolutely soaked and freezing cold Saturday just gone helping to put out fencing etc ahead of Chelmsford City's football match against Staines Town. It was almost monsoon conditions for a time. Braintree Town's home game against Wrexham was postponed just as the team coach arrived at the ground. I bet the players were pleased after such a long journey! The Cressing Road pitch is only about 10 miles further north than our ground. We were lucky that our game went ahead.
We are playing Colchester united in the FA Cup on saturday and I do not fancy a weather repeat to what we endured a few days ago.
I understand that several of Steve C's mates are going but he is to content himself by trying out the local pubs rather than attend the game. Steve whatever you do dont go to the Red Beret!
Kind regards
Dave
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Hi all
Well just into Wales and shockingly its raining!
M4 is at a standstill, welcome to holiday UK stylee!
Hope your all ok!
It is really yucky here in NW1. Looking out of the window on the 27th floor London is shrouded in low cloud. definately a day for not venturing out for lunch.
I am going with the wife to a farm near Craven's Arms, the gateway to the Welsh Marches on Saturday, returning Tuesday evening. Please get rid of all the bad weather before I arrive! Enjoy your break.
Kind regards
Dave
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it has been a lovely day here in Chelmsford. Spent most of the afternoon sitting in the garden. it is a pity that tomorrow will not be as nice, Next week looks more unsettled and rather cool and breezy for the most part.
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What a beautiful Paralympics it has been, London has been so fortunate with the weather during both events with only a few spits and spots of rain in the 23 days of sport so far.
Yes you are right about that. I had to go over to the Olympic Park this lunchtime for a meeting with staff from LOCOG. It was really warm walking to the centre of the Park through the crowds. Everyone seemed to be thourougly enjoying themselves.
Kind regards
Dave
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It has been a really great day in NW1. It was really hot in Regents Park at lunchtime.
Certainly a different day to yesterday.
Yesterday morning was very warm in Chelmsford until lunchtime when it began to cloud over. One of my sons was visiting his girlfriend in Huntingdon and he said that it was dull and drizzly when he spoke to my wife on the phone mid morning. In the afternoon it was mostly coudy and about 18.30 it began to rain lightly. I drove up to Huntingdon to pick my son uo at about 7pm and it continued to drizzle until I got to about Dunmow when the sun came out to end the day on a decent note.
The cloud band mst have been very narrow as there did not appear to be much wind to help it on it's way.
Kind regards
Dave
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A few of my friends have gone up to the Lake District yesterday afternoon, before heading down to watch football at Preston tomorrow, where I'll join them. I'll head up by train at the crack of dawn tomorrow.
I've just seen the radar, so have texted them 'how's the weather?' Cruel...
What no V Festival? I do not envy anyone going it will be very hot and humid over the weekend
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hi wts
the ensembles are struggling from the 16th onwards
when you see a 10 degree difference they are coming
up with very different outcomes
look at the 21st--15 degree difference
lets see what they show on friday to see whether they
are in better agreement
As you state John there is currently a great deal of uncertainty as we head towards the August Bank Holiday weekend. Hopefully we will have a bit of a better idea of what we are likely to expect in a day or two's time.
I am particularly keen to know the outcome as we have booked two caravans for the bank holiday weekend in Wells-Next-Sea and will have an 18 month old with us in the party. A wet weekend in north Norfolk trying to keep this extremely lively youngster occupied is not something to be relished!
Dave
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Very heavy rain here in mid essex, almost monsoon type conditions but only one crack of thuder so far.Now appears to be brightening up from the west and so it should stop raining in 10 minutes or so.
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Absolutely tipping it down here in Chelmsford. One large crack of thunder so far. I got soaking wet putting garden equipment away in a very short space of time.
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Near Hatfield Peverel - I just say Chelmsford for convenience. We currently have light rain only, but the sky has a rainy look about it...
Here are CAPE charts from the Hi Res Model, for 19:00 today. Maybe, just maybe...
Thanks Steve,
We can but hope!
Kind Regards
Dave
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Raining here. It feels like a wet afternoon might be in store. Not sure if thundery, although the satellite pictures are looking more interesting now.
Hello Steve,
Where are you in Alresford or Chelmsford atm?
I am up in NW1 looking out on very dark skies from 27th floor but I was wondering what the weather was doing at home (Chelmsford)
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Very cloudy in NW1. Based on 27th floor of an office block. It is difficult to see if it is raining outside but certainly it has become very cloudy suddenly. It is also misty in the distance which seems to indicate that it is raining not too far away.
Has the rain arrived earlier that predicted this morning on BBC Breakfast?
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Chelmsford area.
Yes Steve I can confirm that it is raining fairly heavily here in North Chelmsford and we have had at least 4 flashes of lightning, but it looks brighter already out to the west.
Kind Regards
Dave
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Hello Alex,
As someone who lives the other side of the town (soon to be city!) I am a little suprised about your comments in view of the weather that we experienced yesterday. I thought iit was very pleasant and T shirt weather working on the allotment which because of the recent monsoon conditions had developed into almost a jungle with grass and weeds very nearly waist high.
Up until yesterday the weather as you so rightly say had been dire but today in this neck of the woods looks as if it might be even better than yesterday with unbroken sunshine at least in the morning.
The rest of the week does not look as settled with heavy showers at times or longer periods of rain interspersed with some drier/brighter intervals. Temperatures a bit below average with a chance of overnight frosts should skies clear in rural areas. Luckily because of the wet weather I am behind with my planting schedule and I do not have any tender plants to worry about!.
I was very suprised in view of the amount of rain that has fallen over the last month or so how dry the soil on the allotment was. It was not sodden as I imagined it would be but quite friable.
I am not very good at reading the charts although I am gradually learning but next weekend does not look too good to me. Is my analysis correct?
Kind Regards
Dave
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Hello Folks,
according to the attached link from the Hazard Magazine it would appear that through a tenuous link climate change can be indirectly causing explosions in Canadian sawmills!
Kind regards
Dave
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I was at a meeting in Putney and at about 13.00 hours there was this enormous flash of lightning that lit the room followed by one of the loudest cracks of thunder that I have ever heard. None of us in the room was facing the window and so that we did not know the weather was closing in. We all almost jumped out of our skins. It was very scarey as it was not anticipated. There was only one further clap of thunder and that was about twenty minutes after the first one, but that one was considerably quieter. The rain was fairly heavy for a time but nothing exceptional
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Between 6" & 8" snow generally here in Springfield (North Chelmsford) temperatures hovering around freezing. Good fun walking up to the local shops snow up to top of walking boots made walking rather difficult.
What are the chances for more snow tonight?
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doesnt effect me much as ill be back in Canada by then....but ill leave you with a balmy 6.2c
Where are You? Not in Chelmsford. If so you can go & watch the mighty City play against Thurrock tomorrow.
My guess for the January CET is 4.1. I hope I am wrong and it is well below that.
Merry Christmas and a Happy & Prosperous New Year.
Kind Regards
Dave
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Mr Data,
Many thanks for your reply.
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Mr Data or any other knowlegable person I would be grateful if you could tell me the following:-
What is the highest recorded temperature for London on Christmas Day and what is the lowest minmum for Christmas Day for the same location.
Many thanks in anticipation
Expert?! I think it will have calmed down by then, certainly inland. I'll look at some charts in the morning.
Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Thanks very much John for your very helpful reply.
Kind Regards
Dave