[Cold Spell Discussion]

Good Morning everyone and a Happy New Year,

First of all as a Newbie Poster although a lurker for a couple of years may I thank everyone, especially the experts for their very interesting posts at NetWeather.

Apologies to the Moderators if I am posting the following in the incorrect thread, but I was a bit uncertain as to where I should place it. Please feel free to transfer it to where you consider it to be more appropriate.

I have a few general questions for the more knowlegable members on how the weather models are produced.

Yesterday's ECM 12Z was vastly different beyond T144 to their previous outputs as well as contemorary runs from those produced by other providers. Also the 18Z is often referred to as the Pub Run because of its ocassional eccentric output.

• Is the data for the 18Z, for example, imputted on a "clean canvass" as it were with information obtained from the previous 18Z output or is it added to the information provided from the previous 18Z run thus continuing from a possibly false premise?

Or

• Is the data for the 18Z only entered from information gleaned from collection following on from the 12Z run as a running output as described above?

Any information as to who the inputs are produced would be very much appreciated.

Finally,

As for example if last evening's ECM12Z looked to the ECM personnel to be for want of a better term "somewhat over progressive" do they have the opportunity to change things around with a few key strokes to produce a more reasoned output or is it a case of a bit like the Little Britain sketch in the travel agents with the "Computer Says No" and adoption of the old newspaper barons adage of "Print and be damned" and as a result whatever the computer shows is what is released for consumption?

If anyone could shed light on this I would be most grateful.

Heres looking forward to a cold and snowy January and hopefully February too.

Kind Regards

Dave

[East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion Part 20]

Weather here is still cold, grey with drizzle in the air. The sun did make a fleeting appearance at about 13.oo hours.Temperature according to car thermometer 3C from a high of 4C this morning.

The cold weather is on its way and hopefully with it some snow in the coming week.

If Kold Weather can continue to update us for weather conditions in his locale it would be great on two counts. Firstly it will inform us of anyThames Streamer/ Kent Streamer that might develop and just creep across the Thames into Essex and secondly from a selfish point of view as to whether I will need to travel down to Thurrock on Saturday afternoon to see the mighty Chelmsford City take on The Rocks in the Blue Square South or whether it will snowed/frozen off (the game that is!!)

Enjoy the imminent cold spell

Dave

[East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion Part 19]

Good Morning everone from a very dull and miserable Chelmsford.

The rain has set in somewhat harder in the last few minutes and it is getting darker

I am really looking forward to this depression to move south east into the Channel/ Continent as swoon as possible to let the cold air sweep in from the northeast.

Heres to a very cold and snowy period in the new Year.

A very Happy New Year to everyone

[East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion]

Good Evening everyone,

This is only my second post. I have been lurking on the message board for several years and have only just plucked up the courage to post due to my limited technical knowledge although I do very much enjoy reading what those that know have to say.

My first post the other day got lost in the bedlam of the Model utlook thread and I did not get a response from Paul S re the possibility of a Thames Streamer.

I am particularly interested on two counts:-

• I am involved with the construction works on the Olympic Park qand next week is the final week before activity ceases for a fortnight. Copious amounts of snow would obviously have an impact on what would be achieved in those final five days.
• In my spare time I am Safety Officer for Chelmsford City and wonder what the likelihood is of our home game against Dorchester on Saturday going ahead. By the way Saint- Stale Buns 0 Chelmsford City 1!

The set up currently looks very exciting and the positive thing is that it does not qappear to be a two day wonder

[Model Output Discussion]

Good evening Folks

This is my first post although I have been reading the site avidly for a number of years.

The charts are currently showing a great deal of potential and is very reminiscent of the lead up tp the 1962/63 set up although as someone mentioned earlier that the continent was much colder at that time.

My concern at the moment is what will happen to the shortwave. If we can get enough umpth from the east (thats a good technical term!) to get it push over us in the southeast I will be more than happy as long as do not end up in a warm sector.

Perhaps Paul may be able to help me with the following:

Is the anticipated set up conducive to the Thames Streamer and if so could it extend from the Cockle sheds as far as Chelmsford.

I look forward to continue to view the daily excitement and also hope to post from time to time although I am nowhere near as knowledgeable as TEITS, BFTP, Paul RJS etc and of course the master himself John Holmes.

Heres looking forward to a good ECM later on this evening

Kind Regards

Dave