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meerkat63

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Posts posted by meerkat63

    North West England - Slightly Less Cold Spell Discussion Part 21

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The situation does not look good for Cumbria over the weekend unfortunately.

    METO still going with 150mm+ totals over the highest fells - which will of course run off into the rivers. That is an exceptional amount of rain in probably less than 24 hours - exceptional for the UK at least. Serious flooding very possible I would say - and no doubt the Met Office will be issuing flash warnings nearer the time.

    New Model Analysts' Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Model thread has gone quiet though.

    Lewis

    Due to milder weather in the offing as I mentioned earlier. Nothing to do with the new thread. Model output discussion is always at it's busiest during or just preceding the onset of cold/snow.

    This is the argument that I just do not understand. We CAN still do this in the normal model thread! Members of the Analysts thread have already said they will continue to post in the normal thread.

    I wish people would just give it a chance before passing judgement.

    Totally agree. I think that the existing thread has actually been enhanced by the pasting over of some more in-depth posts perhaps originally intended for the new thread.

    New Model Analysts' Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A very good idea indeed. As someone who refrains from posting on the model thread - but does read through it every day (in winter at least) the new thread should hopefully save a lot of time and be informative in the process.

    As regards the various concerns which some have over the new thread - firstly I am fairly confident that model output discussion will not be diluted. I hope that people are not too hasty in forming an opinion on this one - because at present it is becoming a little quieter in there - but this is purely due to the fact that the weather is turning milder in the short-term. Nothing else.

    I also think that the number of posters invited is about right and the contributors involved are those whose posts I make an effort to seek out in the model thread - precisely because they give the best, most reasoned and realistic view of what is likely to develop.

    One other point. I do find it strange that some are complaining that the so-called cream of the crop now have a locked model analyst's thread. As if it is a case of 'them and us'. Well I have to say that I totally disagree with that viewpoint. Apart from being fairly infantile and short-sighted (in my opinion) I also find such a stance to some degree quite arrogant. I know for instance that I do not have the technical expertise, depth of knowledge and level of understanding attributed to our more experienced posters and in that sense rather than develop an inferiority complex and throw toys out of prams - I try to learn from reading posts by those who really do know what they are talking about. If the new thread makes that somewhat easier - and I believe it will - all the better.

    Well done Netweather and thanks again for a fantastic idea!

    A Question For Mr_Data

    in Historic Weather

    Posted · Edited by winterman

    Bloody hell!!

    I would of thought there would be minimal cold bottled up in the Arctic in June!

    Yikes!

    Hard to believe, I know. Apparently snow fell in East Anglia and London too - probably not settling. Sleet in Portsmouth. The cricket match between Essex and Kent at Colchester was also delayed - temps of 2.0c at midday there on that particular day!

    A Question For Mr_Data

    in Historic Weather

    Posted

    Hello Mr_Data.

    You're obviously the guy to ask for this, so here goes:

    What is the latest in the year it has snowed? (not october, november, december, january, february and march) I.E - Has it ever snowed in summer?

    Thanks! :D

    I'm not Mr Data obviously, but I do know that it snowed in Buxton June 1975. A cricket match between Lancashire and Derbyshire being played at the Buxton ground was abandoned for the day on 2nd of June that year I believe due to an inch of snow on the pitch caused by an arctic front moving south. A heatwave followed a few days later!

    I mentioned that an inch fell on that date - well it was actually several inches of snow. A rapid thaw did occur (as you might expect at that time of year) and it was an inch which lay on the cricket pitch when play was due to start.

    I'm sure this isn't the latest snowfall but as you suggest Mr Data will probably have the answer hopefully!

    December CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    December CET could all hinge upon the tilt of the front moving in on Boxing Day. Favourable, inland areas get some snow, it remains fairly cold or cool and we get a shot at the CET record. Unfavourable - slush and no record.

    I remain hopeful but at the moment think we might just miss it. Still time for change though.

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A very interesting aside to the here and now is how well the various models have coped with northern blocking so far this winter.

    I made reference to this briefly in questioning yesterdays output (and several other far more experienced posters than I guarded against taking the models then at face value). By and large I would say that ECM has dealt with blocking consistently better than its counterparts - and of course there has been the odd blip - however it does remain the model of choice imo. To that end, tonights output (by the aforementioned ECM) has to be a step in the right direction - for cold lovers anyway!

    North West Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The snow has gradually got heavier through the afternoon here, now moderate-heavy snow (though it keeps stopping and starting) and it's sticking too smile.gif. Temp didn't get above 0.8°C here thankfully and is now 0.1°C.

    Temperature is the real issue here. Still above freezing (0.8c for past 3 hours) it would make all the difference in the world if the temp. was at or below zero - particularly when ppn is light. With the breeze too, then the snow would drift. smile.gif

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I doubt it im afraid- still very cold for England- go look at the 144 chart- the 120 is a classic 60's type chart- ( low 530' thicknesses)

    If the 12zeds are being that tad progressive- which is highly likely then those southerlies will be South easterlies & still be attracting low level surface cold from France-

    If thats how it evolves watch an Easterly appear-

    S

    Agreed. I am not yet convinced that the models are dealing with the blocking high correctly - hence the tendency towards being potentially over-progressive with regard to bringing in the Atlantic. A couple of more runs needed perhaps.

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