meerkat63
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Posts posted by meerkat63
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In desperate need of some snow here like last february
If the latest model output verifies then last february's weather should be totally eclipsed
It has been already, for my location anyway - best winter in years so far
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Snowing here although not settling and not looking likely to at the moment.
Temperature currently similar to that of last night during the lamp-post watch - however I will add that one subtle difference is the wind direction. Yesterday it was oscillating between East and North East - even South East on occassion. Now it looks more like a straightforward northeasterly.
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Temp. 2.0c
Dewpoint 1.0c
Humidity 91%
989.5mb
Mean wind speed 16mph
Strongest gust (today) 37mph
Wind direction NE
Light snow, not settling
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The good news keeps on coming this evening. NOAA sing the praises of the ECM model and slate the GFS, upstream signals and extended outlook back the ECM output as being plausible. Here are the main quotes most pertinent to downstrean in western Europe.
Good post as always Nick and it does appear to my rather untrained eye that the GEM model (not to forget the superb output by ECM tonight) has hinted for some time that all is not lost with our Greenland HP by any means. The threat is indeed there of a western based negative NAO and in that regard I thought I would post (or pilfer!) something GP penned in the technical thread for any others who may not have noticed it.
"Composite reanalysis for phases 5-6 indicate that the GWO will trend the mean blocking ridge to work its way back east towards days 11-15, towards Iceland with lows being forced underneath the block. The GFS ensemble mean height anomaly for this period (500hPa) tends to support this notion:
http://raleighwx.eas...htAnomalyNH.gif
Temperatures across this period are likely to remain depressed, particularly so during days 6-10 and not returning to above average during this time. Obviously, at this time of year, beow average conditions are likely to present potential for snowfall, especially given a pronounced trough just to the south west of the UK allowing surface depressions to attempt to work up into the cold reservoir of air lodged over NW Europe.
we are in essence seeing the impacts of the changing wavelengths and climatological effects which should ensure a much larger and deeper cold pool across the NW parts iof Europe and the NE Atlantic.
For what it's worth, the GEM ensemble mean t300 onwards shows the block to become more orientated towards Iceland in line with the analysis above. It's also worth noting that this set up does lend itself to a potential channel-low type event sometime days 6-12." GP
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At last! It's snowing!
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its becoming a tad annoying now.We have snow to our north and snow to our south.
Why are we seeing rain?
It's dragging on a bit now I have to agree!
Would you believe that the temperature has actually risen here to 2.0c from 1.9c!
Must be under an area of thicker cloud - although if that means soon-to-be heavier precipitation, hopefully the temperature will take a dive again.
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Earlier today on this thread Mr Data posted the GFS 06Z ensembles for Manchester which had a very cold flavour about them. (Thanks Mr Data
)Tonight's ECM output is a stunner and those on the model output discussion thread have turned their attentions it would seem to the onset of winter armaggeddon
If all goes well, this could be just the start...
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Around 215m, so not that much higher than you, perhaps we're under slightly heavier precip? Having said that it's got a little lighter now.
OK thanks for that. Set my mind at rest
Temperature has fallen to 1.9c so hopefully just a matter of time before we see snow now.
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Hi,
A final question, does anyone know if a "Polar Low" has ever brought snow too my area?
Luke
I take it that by your area you mean Liverpool?
As an answer to the above, I don't know but I would expect almost certainly. A polar low occurs in as you would expect in a northerly airstream of polar origin. They tend to be very localized.
I do recall one instance for example of Blackpool getting over a foot of snow from an event such as this wheras my location further inland received nothing by way of snowfall. So given the right conditions - and the conditions do have to be conducive to this sort of event - your area would be fairly well placed in my opinion. Someone else will probably have more detailed info on this however.
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Heavy sleet atm, seems to be right on the borderline for snow though with lots of flakes coming down, if only I was just a little bit higher! lol
What's the altitude for your location James?
I am a little concerned in that temp. appears to have stabilized here for now at 2.1c. I live at around 650ft asl - perhaps just a fraction higher - proper snow seems to be a fair way off yet.
Clearly those in a more elevated position have a much better chance as you say.
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Temp. 2.2c - has been falling since mid-afternoon
Dewpoint 1.0c
Humidity 90%
Mean wind speed 14mph ENE
Strongest gust 37mph
990.0mb
Cloudy with sleet
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Precipitation has been a little heavier recently, although difficult to tell whether it is rain, sleet or snow.
I will sit on the fence and say probably sleet.
On a more positive note temperature is steadily falling and has been for a few hours.
Peaked at 3.3c mid-afternoon and is currently 2.2c, dewpoint 1.0c
Interesting too to see the flash weather warning issued earlier today by Met Office for heavy snow for north west.
Still worth keeping an eye on that lampost - and radar of course.
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Temp. 2.9c
Dewpoint 1.0c
Mean wind speed 10 mph
Humidity 89%
994.2mb
Cloudy & breezy.
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Patchy cloud after a clear and frosty start.
Current temp. 2.5c, dewpoint 2.0c
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Looking into next week, another cold spell is upon us! It never really went properly mild anyway!
The afternoon models (ECM and UKMO 12z's) seem to prolong the cold spell which is good news! However, they also keep the precipitation further south, so Wales and the Midlands benefits from sustained snowfall while we stay mostly dry. If this trend continues,we will have to catch snow showers in the east/northeast wind so hit and miss.
Let's hope we struck lucky again.
Karyo
Hi Karyo
If the ECM / UKMO verify then despite missing out in the short-term re a possible full on blizzard it may only be a matter of time before we get our share of the fun.
The low being further south both prolongs the cold, assists in its more rapid intensification and means that a cold spell with great potential is more likely than would otherwise be the case were the low to take a more northerly track. I will quite happily take that.
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Yep a true sustained Easterly can give some decent snowfall to our side of the Pennines, although obviously the clue is in the title to which parts are mostly favoured. It's worth baring in mind that although the recent cold spell, was setup by an easterly, it wasn't until the winds switched round to the North and then a North Westerly, that we got the most snowfall. Well from a personal point of view that seemed to be the case.
I also remember the snow bonaza's we got in the 80's but likewise i was too young to be interested from what direction the colder weather originated from lol
As I mentioned in an earlier post though a north west orientation can be extremely risky. Yes it paid off this time , but on so many occasions I have been disappointed watching showers slide by through the Cheshire Gap delivering nothing to my part of the world anyway while Cheshire and Derbyshire take a real pasting. A northerly is even worse - this affects only exposed coasts and hills, particularly good for the likes of north Wales.
If you go back to the really bad winters - '47, '63 and even 1978/9 and the winters of the '80s to an extent the overriding feature was the easterly airstream which predominated. The true feature of course was the set-up which allowed that to take place to begin with and made any incursion of milder air very difficult to succeed in overcoming the cold airmass over the UK. Hence many severe blizzards during '47 and '63 particularly which delivered to everyone in the north west - not just those to the east of the region.
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The NW radar shows a band of snow (pink precip on chart) heading south coming out of Cumbria and into lancs , can anyone confirm that it is snowing ,or has the radar just gone mad
Meto radar also shows shower activity - temp still 2.3c here so not sure if it would snow anyway yet.
It would certainly be interesting to hear any reports from those in Cumbria at the moment.
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Welcome to the forum - newbie myself although a follower of this site for a few years and of the weather virtually for the entirity of my life so far!
Colder air has been working its way through the region throughout the day and a frost can be expected in many areas of the north west tonight.
Where any potential snow is concerned, the midweek event has been described by some as a forecasters nightmare - with a great deal of uncertainty at this stage with regard to which locations will actually receive snowfall.
Convective snowfall later in the week from showers off the North Sea is anticipated but I would not think about that until the position of the incoming low has finally been sorted out.
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Temp. 2.7c, dewpoint 1.0c. Cloudy.
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Dont for one second think easterlies do not deliver for us in the northwest becuase they most certainly can.
Absolutely spot on there. In fact for those who would like to see snowfall of a magnitude which could be described as 'out of the ordinary' it is the best direction of the lot. A true easterly - as opposed to NE or SE orientated - is ideal although deviations from this can produce the same result given the right circimstances.
For one thing, with a true easterly snow tends not to be wet snow, temps. are often at or below freezing even during the day and with a wind that means the potential for considerable drifting - something which hardly ever happens from a westerly.
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Cloudy and dry following earlier showers and overcast start. Current temp. 3.2c, dewpoint 3.0c.
Patchy lying snow still remains despite significant thaw over past couple of days.
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Looks like its never going to get milder in the Northwest. Maybe a max of 5/6 C tomorrow generally, probably lower over the snowfields.Sunday afternoon sees the return of the polar airmass. Chance of sleet of snow showers before ( col) conditions lead to a frosty start to the new week.
C
Good to hear the colder air returning Sunday afternoon - expected it perhaps a day or so later but will take that C.
Current conditions here (with extensive snowcover) temp. 0.4c, dewpoint 0.0c and foggy - again!
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Merry Christmas everyone.
Current temp. 0.3c, dewpoint 0.0c.
Possibility of more snow this evening is still there according to latest forecasts - so more radar and lampost watching...and
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The reason being that as nick explained, having the low further south is better for a more sustained cold spell for everybody
It isn't just about who gets snow in their back garden because of the low - it is about the prospects for another cold spell following the low.
As azores 92 rightly has just said though, it is far too early to go into specifics/details about this anyway. It won't be till after xmas proper that there will be a better idea about these.
I could not agree more than I do. It is precisely because of the low that the cold is able to truly return and in that respect I personally would trade no snow from that particular event for a more sustained cold spell. Concerns still exist over the longer term regarding the polar vortex getting its act together but the models on the whole paint a fantastic picture and provide every reason for optimism.
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North West Cold Spell 10
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Sounds very similar to what is happening where I live. Snow not settling here although the surrounding hills - or what I can see of them! - appear to have a dusting. It is pretty wild out there though.