recklessabandon

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/30/us-swiss-tourism-snow-idUKTRE7AS2VV20111130 Incredible really. I'm off to Saas-Fee in 9 days.......I think I just about backed the right (only?) horse.....

yeah they are in areas will very little tree or topographic shelter which means a nor'easterly or easterly has a pretty unrestricted run at the roads, compounded by DCC's woeful road management programme (but that's for another discussion!) Also to alza - yeah I agree Wooler area is a good reference point and gets hammered, be interesting to see some proper numbers from that area, though under the right conditions (Dec 2009 for example) Consett can be hard to beat once the wind funnels up the Derwent Valley.....

For NE England - in terms of towns Consett for sure, I would have also said Alston but it is Cumbria so I'll give that to the North-west. For villages - I'd go for one of the upland Durham villages, maybe like Lanehead, Wearhead etc, though Waskeley might end up being an unlikely winner due to its susceptibility to picking up heavy snow from a nor'easterly wind too..... I also think one or two of the Northumbrian villages in the Cheviot area might also get messy.....

At least we might see some snow and ice then at least......maybe it should be a prescription for those reaching for the prozac already....

More chance of seeing a Polar Bear right now IMO.....

Agreed, we haven't had much to hold onto this autumn! And for those of us in upland Co Durham, PM can do us just fine.....

Temperatures have plunged behind the squall line as expected, but it was dramatic in the NE to say the least, left Tees-side at 2.30 pm fair conditions and 13C, arrived into Durham at 15.30 after an hour of very heavy rain; temperature dropped to 6C....

Fair play to you - especially as your December forecast (at least the first half for now) looks a good bet too....

I think this might all be down to the sun in the case of this picture. This shot shows the south facing slopes of Skiddaw, which a roughly at 30 to 45 degrees, meaning in mid-winter they are pointing directly at the low aspect sun, and thus melting the snow. below this the frost hollows and valley shade maintain the cover, above this, the cold wins out. If you look at the valley to the immediate south west of the summit, it holds snow much further down, and that is a south east facing aspect, thus only getting morning to lunchtime sun, not the more 'radiant' sun from the south and west which is generally more effective and melting. Also, this effect can also be seen in more extreme ways in the alps, with alternating layers of cold and warm air under benign conditions.

thanks John, quite interesting. It was I who was raising the question/issue of the difference between statistical bias (especially that of variable omission bias) and cognitive bias. I was certainly not suggesting the any forecast models are influenced by cognitive bias (though reading some of the winter forecasts I do wonder ....) Anyway, I think part of the confusion came from the definitions, clearly the METO have their interpretation of bias which of course in statistics is perfectly understandable, given how many different 'types' of bias one can encounter. One question that does remain to me though; if the models are taking a global view over a known square area, how do they compensate for those regions of the globe where data on the ground may be very sparse, lets say the sahara regions of Africa as an extreme example versus western Europe, is provision given in the models for potential 'gaps' in ground-based data sets ( I am assuming that to a degree in-filling will be given by satellite).

thanks, look forward to it

I've started something now haven't I.....happy to be 'moved' if this conversation can be put somewhere more appropriate.

At the risk of getting caught up in semantics, we need to be clear. I think the argument is that the 'bias' is being referred to in the statistical sense rather than cognitive sense. Bias in the statistical sense is exactly what you have described above. I personally never suggested that there was bias in the cognitive sense in the models, because although they are under human control, they are objective numerical models. I suggested that statistical bias may be occurring because of the skew in available data and the way it is used (as per earlier comments) from different sources, which might suggest a skew, or bias, toward zonal type conditions.

thanks John i'll have a look. in terms of the question I think we (me for sure) were looking at the effect of missing data causing over-compensation in certain areas, especially when the 'ground' data sources we were relying on were from areas where our weather generally does not prevail 'from' therefore increasing the risk of data 'gaps' (IMO) and 'skewing' - probably a better description than bias, which suggests an inclination to one thing or another (almost by design).

Given the huge amount of data input variables the models have to process, can they not be subject to bias through omission of a particular variable, or are there safeguards in place to stop that? For instance if an input variable is missed because it is not fully understood or through poor data collation, then over-compensation can occur. So lets say one area of the ocean has far more data collation points than another area because of the prevailing weather conditions, could there be a risk of overcompensation - because on occasion our weather 'flow' comes from a northerly or north-easterly where there are fewer data collation points leading to over-compensation and potentially therefore variable omission bias?

I recall upstream indicators for cold being there from early November for sure....but in response to below.... I also recall quite a long discussion on the 'bias' of the models, though I think it was possibly more related to the way they handled the data, in that there is for more information/data 'experience' (if you know what i mean) for zonal type conditions, and that, the blocking and synoptics that we saw last winter were far less usual and more difficult to handle for the models - therefore out in FI they wanted to revert to zonal type until there was sufficient upstream information to maintain the 'blocked' synoptics in the near-time forecasts. I am sure there are others out there who will recall this and can explain it far better than me.

There has been some research into the relationship between economic output and climate, I do know for one James Lovelock has looked at this. I know this is slightly off-topic. Essentially in our carbon based economy boom times = lots of greenhouse gas output and particulate output, during recession this reduces relatively speaking. The question is, what is the link, is it that because increased particulate output reflects sunlight, and the lag effect of this simply co-incides with our relatively rythmic boom/bust economy to cause a slightly cooler period during the recession periods or, is it because during boom times we output a relatively higher concentration of 'greenhouse gas' which results in relatively warmer periods? As for this winter....lots of talk on some French websites predicting a very snowy season in the Alps - could this suggest that some in France are also predicting a more southerly tracking jet, bringing the conveyor of weather systems to their shores.....?

Pictures on WinterHighland from Cairngorm AWS from the weekend: http://www.winterhighland.info/forum/file.php?2,file=7631 http://www.winterhighland.info/forum/file.php?2,file=7632

chester le street, canny video from earlier on YouTube:

Came home over Hisehope Moor around an hour ago. -1C at the top with heavy drifting snow lying on the roads and blowing. 0C was around 1200-1300 ft where the snow was wet and sticky, sleet below that level but in the time i was out the snow level was dropping.

As it was showers its a little hit and miss, we have around 30cm-40cm (Consett) lying so I wouldnt recomend it. A1 has had various closures between Catterick and Newcastle so you will need to check with the traffic websites.

Just the workout we need shovelling all this snow after new years :-)

usual carry on up Blackhill Bank again.....

http://www.durham.gov.uk/Pages/Service.aspx?ServiceId=933

Can I add to this that DCC have closed most of the higher roads and 'passes' including Kilhope, Crawleyside, Langdon Beck to Alston etc etc, be very careful if your going to play in the snow....drifts are now as high as houses in places.