recklessabandon

Alza - how warm is the 'warm' sector, do you have numbers to hand? Could do with this becoming an occlusion sooner rather than later.... BTW it was very light rain in Consett

Yup there is a bit of ppn in the air in Consett.....but I'm not telling you what in case it spoils your day. Can you imagine the backlash......

it has also moved very little in 4 hours relatively speaking....wouldn't it be funny if it stalled over NE/Yorks and never made it to the SE.... Thank you that is interesting because I think you can see the cold front catching the warm front now on the radar quite smartly

I might agree....but when you live halfway between the two you have to stay neutral!

dont eat orange snow..... I think the METO are on to an upgrade personally, the front is starting to intensify and slow, and the second band is catching up, it is still very cold out there, and, I have noticed the gritters hammering the roads now, it is like driving on the beach so I can only assume they are responding to an upgraded warning as they are a very rare sight now.

Snow covered moors are air conditioning the wind in Consett too.....feels mighty cold....the feedback might help a little off the hills

yep Newcastle might do alright you know....Tyne Valley gap is letting some bright colours through, must be something in Hexham now

Re: the ppn radar....Cross Fell and the high Pennines - are they starting to split the band a little, rain shadow effect....

-1.5C in Consett and wind is pretty keen now, it feels very unpleasant. However some ppn in the wind.....

snowing on the borders now, but looking wet.....

Mate in Liverpool tells me temps are -2C and its raining heavily and like a skating rink

lack of ppn i think will reduce chances of any evaporative cooling, uppers marginal and the timing means uppers will matter, cant rely on resident cold at 3pm. but biggest problem will be the angle of attack now, from this angle high pennines will put much of the NE in the rain shadow, sorry and all, but high pennines and dales should see a good event, but I think coastal T&W, south east Northumberland, east Durham and Tees-side/Redcar&Cleveland will be really struggling for much ppn at all. Should be canny in the Yorkshire dales and south pennines though....

'Somewhere' IMHO is going to do very well from this, more due to persistence I think than intensity. I think much of the intensity will be lost as the fronts push up against the what seems to be a slightly resurgent block. I have a feeling the 'angle of attack' will change a little more, with the orientation becoming more longitudinal, if you will. This will be better for us as it will keep us on the right side of the cold with the mild air kept out west. Plenty of changes to come though......!!!!

Consett snow magnet set to full power for Saturday, gonna pull all the ppn out of the sky leaving the SE and EA with a 2mm dusting ( so enough to close the M11...). Seriously though, 12z has been a bit progressive lately with the push westwards generally, HOWEVER, there are other reasons to be cheerful now and when I have 5 ill be looking at the other models, and the 18z, for continued westward push of the cold, amplification with a gradual north-south orientation of the fronts, and the continuing southerly track of the shortwave off the southern coast of England to cut off the azores high linking up and more 'propping up' of the siberian block....528 Dam Line hangs on for dear life in the latest 12z and pushes back after Sunday....

Leeds I think is snowier than Durham or Sheffield but there is very little in it. Aberdeen being the UK's snowiest by some distance. Consett and Buxton probably are a close run thing, but I suspect statistically Buxton will be snowiest (cover at 9am) because it will capture far more ppn in general due to Consett being in more of a rain shadow (ie throw enough muck some will stick). In terms of total snowfall over a given season, Consett will probably beat Buxton....Consett often has snow cover when even the roads and villages at similar altitude a mile away don't. This weekend is a crazy one, at this moment, I would rather see us outside of the progged area for heaviest and long lasting snow, why? because it WILL change! I recall an event back in the early 90s (TWS probably can date it) where although the angle of attack differed, in many ways the setup was similar with what became an occlusion that was forecast to slowly cross the UK into colder air, in the end, came to a halt over the north pennines, with snow depths of several feet resulting over the Durham moors, and only a few inches a matter of 10 miles east. It took a week for that system to push through in the end, and the forecast 24 hours prior was for it to push through in 24-48 hours.....

Is it me or is the air exceptionally dry? i know we expect lower humidity from PC but this feels pretty exceptional especially how dry the roads are and the lack of any hoar or ice after a sharp frost....

Cold dull and mainly dry is what the latest model outputs are suggesting until the end of the week. After Saturday it is anyone's guess. Its panic stations in the chasing snow thread (sorry Model Output Discussion...) as the prognosis becomes less encouraging for cold and snow generally in the coming days.....anyone else missing the sun?

An outcome of this current spell is that all it will probably achieve is to lower the SSTs of the North Sea, so if/when we do get a decent easterly or north easterley we will a) need low uppers to help spark convection, but, B) be subject to less modification. I don't think this is it, a number of upstream signals are pointing to a colder than average and blocked February, the METO have stuck to their guns on this for while now too. The key of late is to follow the general trends not the individual nuances.

I would not put that much reliance into what is being forecast this weekend at the moment. There is still significant uncertainty in the models, and although we are trending toward a more Atlantic influence, it is far from certain, with a cold reload possible. The MWIS forecast which tends to be pretty balanced and pragmatic read as follows: "Cold across all mountains until late in the week - and after what may be a milder interlude in Scotland - may continue to envelop Britain next week as well. Terrain will be substantially frozen and snow showers on some eastern mountains. Generally winds on the mountains fairly light. However, this coming weekend, fronts may well encroach into/across Scotland, with snow and low cloud spreading in. It may intermittently turn milder, with thaw of lying snow, at least on lower slopes, before the thaw slows or comes to a halt again into next week." Make of that what you will.

looks like some shower activity developing approx 50 miles offshore now too behind the occlusion

Wait for the ensembles, I am expecting some major scatter from T+72 to T+90. The models show a very messy breakdown and I am personally not convinced they have a full handle on it yet. There is a trend towards reload after the weekend, and, I for one cannot see the Atlantic smashing through this block as easily as has been suggested today. I made a comment on the MOD thread earlier today about model consistency and performance, although the GFS 12z has been generally good of late, they have all had some MAJOR wobbles in the last 4 weeks with some very poor performances at times, so don't get too worried what is shown after Thursday/Friday just yet....if it is the same on Wednesday 18z and Thursday 00z, then worry....

maybe, just maybe, by late thursday and early Friday the colder uppers will create sufficient temperature differential to spark real convection off the North Sea

air flow is wandering across the sea too slowly, I wouldn't expect anything remarkable out of this set-up, in fact, even when the colder uppers arrive, I suspect we will be under almost constant cloud cover in the NE with occasional graupal and sleet with only slight or moderate frosts. We will all be hoping for a good old Pm flow to give us some sunshine by Friday!!!

latest GFS models have the HP sliding slightly further south and slower at bringing the deep cold in, also a much slacker flow from mid week, notable difference by T+72. 12z has been the better of the GFS models of late so we will see how it does... ps. cant wait to go and watch all the point-scoring on the MOD thread now..... significant modification from the relatively warm North Sea holding up the temps