recklessabandon

no idea, I don't have a weather station, so we will go with 'canny fresh' but the Council station at Medomsley is -0.3/-3.7 so its an odd one for sure. I just poked my head out because I could see it on the car, it had been snowing previous to it though, maybe 20 mins ago.

well.....its raining....

check out the METO scan: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/consett#?tab=map&map=Rainfall&fcTime=1358662500&zoom=8&lon=-1.83&lat=54.85 Its getting bigger all the time.....

Its a memory that's probably best left to lie then, so I'll hear you on this one. Far less meltwater on the roads today suggesting the inland areas have stayed colder throughout the day than yesterday, infact Medomsley Bank was very noticeable at around 16.30, it was nearly dry in places!!!

Fair comment, wish I could remember how that ended up in Consett for comparison. I have to be honest, I do share some of your cynicism given what I have seen from GFS

well BBC news seem bullish on this being an all snow event apart from 'perhaps the coastal strip'...

Despite what the weather stations are saying I was in town all afternoon, and I did think it 'felt' a lot 'warmer' than it does in the outlying areas...so perhaps you need a good breeze to blow some of the 'warm' surface air away....or perhaps you all need to turn your heating off ????

Use this link for live road temps and dew points, its via North Yorks highways but you can scroll up to all of the North East http://www.northyorks.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=13516 DPs are generally well below freezing with temps either side of zero so I am little surprised with the reports of rain....perhaps some local 'urban heat island' effect or a layer of warmer air messing with things....

Can only assume the Durham boys are sat in the pub....roads around Consett haven't been done since....well actually I don't know maybe last night???

I think NAE may well be on the money with PPN totals, the topography of the North-east means that under this scenario for the next 24 hours 30mm is probably widely achievable......there is some modelling that suggests an element of air mixing in with upper temperatures of less than -5, especially toward the coast, this has not been indicated in the south and east of England (where lower uppers have been present) and accordingly, most/all PPN appears to have been snow away from the coasts. I suspect we may need around 500' of elevation to 'buy' us the insurance of getting a 1:10 rain-to-snow ratio, which if it comes off will bring much of County Durham and Northumberland east of the A1 to a complete standstill, especially if the council take the approach they did yesterday morning of waiting until the snow ceases prior to road treatment (Sensible IMO though). If I was guessing I would suggest that where good snow cover is present, more will come, where snow has been thawing rapidly today, sleet and wet snow may be the best on offer tomorrow. From a personal perspective Id like to see us all get 30cm + and get on with business as usual and send a giant 'ha ha' to the soft southerners.....

Very much a case of nowcasting this feature later today I think. I suspect the lack of clear warnings from the METO at this stage are reflecting the uncertainty. I have mentioned in other Topics how features tracking through the North Sea can be very difficult to model due to the lack of local data (eg METO has no MAWS in the North Sea). The warm sector is a close call, a few miles (well within margins of error) could make a huge difference. I would suggest that Consett, Stanley, Tow Law, etc etc will get at least 10cm fresh snow, perhaps more, but east of the A1 is very unclear....I am not sure I'd be particularly excited if I lived on the coast at this stage. Like every one of these little North Sea features.....somewhere will probably get hammered, I am going to guesstimate that locally 20cm will be possible, either in the Cheviots or the NYMs.... In the bigger picture the models are still pushing back the breakdown, this morning, we have gone back another day into Thursday/Friday. Even beyond that, I wouldn't call it 'mild'.....

think this could be the heaviest it has been all evening now...

indications are from the models are that the PPN will peak by midnight before dissipating through the night, however, they are becoming increasingly bullish with respect to some significant snowfall during Sunday evening and night....

nice....

seems a bit heavier in consettshire now, more large flakes than previous bursts...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/#?tab=map&map=Rainfall&fcTime=1358497800&zoom=8&lon=-1.72&lat=54.76 Would love to hear from anyone in the Wansbeck/Alnwick area.....if your house isnt buried....

Its a trough rather than a shower....and it appears to be converging with the front that hit the rest of England/Wales earlier today, so it could have a few hours in it.....

there are no words in the dictionary that can describe Consett ha ha ha

sorry, when I said 'cant believe' I meant more out of surprise than not trusting you .....

they dont, but the point is that the more easterly element is coming straight off the relatively warm sea, whereas the more southerly flow is coming over land, which, is canny cold atm, so, rising DPs along the coastal strip can be a good indicator of an airflow modified by the 'warm' sea cant believe its not hammering in Durham??? I guess the wind flow is favouring the Consett area due to some degree of orographic PPN

Reading reports of quite rapidly rising DPs on the Yorkshire coast so that would tally with a much reducing southerly element to the air flow and more easterly

Just popped into the Yorkshire thread....reports of thundersnow from this trough around humberside.

Be interesting to see how the next hour pans out....it looks initially as though the front from the west is converging with the trough right over the north east and they are stalling each other's progress....

To be fair BBC were still saying at 5pm that snow showers would be light this evening and fizzle out by midnight.....

I am always nervous about frontal snow in the NE. By last night things were looking quite average to be fair in terms of snowfall amount. The rain shaodw effect will nearly always cause dissapoinment. The fronts arent riding a jet train, and are infact being pushed back to some degree, however, because it is a slider, it is increasingly looking like increase easterley winds will be dragged in off the sea, with I think, our best chances coming from convective activity from the back edge of the system as it pushes south eastwards, this I think could result in some good accumulations through the night on Friday and Saturday, and possibly even into Sunday. The risk is that a east/southereasterley has a fair bit of sea to cross, resulting in modification on the coasts back to sleet/wet snow. My guess at the moment.....grey cloudy skies much of tomorrow with light to occasionnally moderate snow in the evening, with heavy burst/convective snow by Saturday morning.