recklessabandon

A question for the more experienced perhaps? Currently sea surface temperatures are approximately 2 - 4 C above average (anyone who lives near the coast will notice this) with the current sea surface temperatures here on the Northumberland coast at 11.5 C! (anomolies chart below). Have we ever been in such a scenario in January? So lets say such a scenario plays out where a prolonged northerly / north easterly occurs as is now being discussed as potential - my thoughts are that this in the short term is more likely to lead to increased convection, but significant modification delivering cold rain and sleet to many low lying / coastal locations rather than snow, and given the elevated SSTs - the most likely scenario is that the Scottish Highlands and other upland areas of the UK (NYM, Cheviots, Pennines etc) will get a pasting with the rest of the UK left cold and soggy.

Ensembles for central Europe suggest ops at the moment on the high side of the mean, significant spread after T120 so still could go either way for the north Italian low, GFS hasn't dropped it that's for sure. Massive uncertainty still. PS, if you want a laugh, check out T240 pressure ens for Moscow, then you will see real uncertainty!!!

GFS Ensembles still suggesting a lowering of heights in central Europe and the Med from around the 15th, though, there is significant scatter from around that point, which, suggests significant uncertainty still. General pattern still suppports easterly flow off the continent, but the strength of advection and longevity still very uncertain. Ops runs seem to be sitting in the middle (and on the fence?!).

I am not sure I subscribe to the notion that this 'turnaround' in the models is as dramatic as one might think. The lowering of heights in northern Italy and the Adriatic is something that a number of suites have been hinting at over the past few days so I think something has been in evidence, perhaps last night the butterfly had one of it's wings clipped, though the proof will be where we are at in 7 days. However, in my view, beyond the weekend, the weather pattern is still very uncertain, with the majority of the model forecasts suggesting a drop in temperature with the potential for sleet and snow on eastern facing aspects currently suggested as the most likely outcome, with predominantly dry conditions elsewhere.

Some parts of the Scottish Highlands could have massed some terrific snow depths by the end of January if the pattern is set to continue. Ensembles in Highland typically varying between T850 of 0C and -5C should generally keep the freezing level around Munro point (although given some of the very low pressure centres freezing levels may drop further) and the ensembles show high precipitation concentrations and spikes throughout the first half of January. Slightly OT but it seems that often one of the ironies of 'deep cold' in the UK is that snow depths in the ski areas can often be a lot less that under a cool zonal regime.

XC weather suggesting gusts over the pennines well into the 60s, it is very difficult walking around Consett and onto the moors now. Reading between the lines, latest BBC broadcast suggested that perhaps this will go on a little longer and be a little more pronounced this afternoon than anticipated across the north....

If I recall...trying to find the paper now....I think CML recorded an 'unofficial' speed of around 195 mph at the tunnel mouth of the funicular on Cairngorm....not a met office station though so it wasnt verified...or something like that....

think you just top-trumped everyone.... ;-)

thats the one! to be honest, just my opinion, i am sure higher speeds will have occurred, and will occur again. I don't think the mountain weather stations are particularly favourably located to record winds funnelled through corries etc, but that is the same for anything I guess.

In the interest of balance/discussion, quote from MWIS: Headline, Cairngorms National Park, MonadhliathStorm to hurricane force upland winds; areas of snow. How Windy?South or southwesterly in the range 70 to 100, gusts 130mph. Effect Of Wind?Very difficult walking from low level upwards. Any mobility extensively tortuous on higher areas. Severe wind chill.

I think sadly a lot of the Highlands AWS stations are offline at high levels due to storm damage earlier in this period so we are unlikely to have the effects recorded across the highest summits. 130 mph + easily possible above about 1000 m in my opinion.

Northolt now at 33C.....a good 10C warmer than Durham......think I know where I am happiest in these conditions ;-)

Cloud must be trapped in the vale of york and tees valley as I see Catterick and Leeming arent clear yet either. Feeling very warm in Durham by the river at lunchtime. Breeze has picked up to which I dare say has helped shift the murk. On another note the guys on the coast must be devastated, there are bouys in the north sea with temps into the low 20s, with boulmer/loftus etc struggling for 16/17C......

Sky is clear in Durham, cleared around 12 noon, temperatures are soaring now as a result....

Cloud starting to bubble up in Durham, breeze is a nice relief, heat radiating off the ground is noticeable, and the famous viaduct is like a radiator!! I think the North-sea coast will be grim at the weekend with the fret though....cracking weekend to be in the pennines/lakes with the sunshine but cooling breeze.

I remember being sat in my office in Durham next to the viaduct thinking how odd it was that the trains were all stacking up at Durham station.......then the birds stopped singing.......then the sky went black like night.......the rest is history.....

Last June and July in the North-east....take your pick.....June 28th was the famous, or should I say infamous 'supercell' storm...but there were plenty of others during last summer, frankly, I don't miss them anymore after last summer......

Reminds us what more experienced members keep trying to drive home, that individual GFS runs should be compared over a 24 hr period i.e. 06z vs 06z rather than inter-run comparison (eg 12z vs 18z) as the 06z and 18z are using more limited data sets than 00z and 12z....

It wont be as bad as you think, I was up there today boarding and the upland rivers are very low indeed now with a lot of capacity, because of the wind a lot of the plateaus are already stripped of meaningful depths and the areas below around 1500ft are generally thin and patchy (away from the drifts) so volume wise wont be too bad, plus the packed drifts and slab wont melt quickly....

Dryish, low humidity and relativley sunny. Doesnt need to be hot, if it is dryish and sunny with low humidity it will feel pleasant regardless. The chances of this on our Island? Around 5%.....

It will have both a Saturday and Sunday in it. Also, cold, dryish, generally grim on the east coast. not much lying when I left work, just a dusting really, that was around 6pm. Snow depths are negligible up to around 750 feet where in a very short increase in altitude they go from virtually nothing to lots.

Some convection happening now out there I think, intensity and size of hail/graupel increasing. I think the 'warm' March sun is heating the surface enough between the showers to kick things off as it were.....should see some good local accumulations later this afternoon/after sunset if this continues.

Genius. What makes it funnier is it is true. Some incredible drifts on the Waskerley Way the size of a small town.....

Last 6 weeks of winter have been genuinley wintery in NW Durham. Snow has been in evidence throughout either as full cover or as drifts/patches remaining after the large falls. Some epic snow falls recorded in January with two falls in excess of 30cm (12") in Consett, giving some lying snow depths a ski resort would be happy with. Not sure what the total number of 50%+ 9am laying snow days has been for December to February in NW Durham, but I would assume in excess of 30. Interestingly however, although the average temperatures have been in the +2s and +3s, we havent seen many really cold nights/days. Often I will see several nights below -10C in a winter, I havent seen this at all this winter....and the confirmation of this? I have never had to have the heating on 24 hours..... Roll on a dry sunny spring:)

snow line seems to have been sat at 1000' for most of the afternoon, Tow Law and the A68 have a covering but its marginal even there. Id think the higher pennines are doing quite well however.