BlueHedgehog074

Just a little focus on the Easter weekend (while the weather’s still in a good mood ), and it looks like generally another warm and fine day to come on Saturday (today) with High Pressure trying to hold on over the UK and to our East over Scandinavia. One or two odd showers could pop up over Western areas throughout the day, but most areas should stay dry. More cloudier conditions with the odd spot of rain could start reaching Western Ireland later on in the day too. Central and Eastern areas should hold onto some further warm and dry conditions during Easter Sunday. Western areas becoming cooler with a spell of rain shifting East through Ireland as Low Pressure in the Atlantic tries to nudge in further East. This looking to reach into Wales, Western Northern England and Western Scotland later into the evening and over night period. But due to the timing of this front, a good number should be able to carry out any outdoor Easter activities they have planned. A brighter more showery setup likely developing for Ireland later into the afternoon or evening behind the rain band. Some Eastern and Northern areas will hold onto some rain at the start of Easter Monday (South-Eastern areas could end up seeing hardly much, if any rain at all, from the front), but this will fairly soon make a getaway into the North-Sea into the afternoon. Rest of the UK will see some sunshine and showers, most of these occurring towards Western areas with more of a breezy Westerly flow developing as the Low to the North-West of Scotland tries to head a little further East. Some Eastern areas likely staying dry, although North and Western parts of Ireland in particular could see a more organised area of showers with a kink/disturbance in the flow in that area. A cooler day for many, especially for North-Western areas, although away from the showers it could feel quite warm out in the sun - especially for Central and Eastern parts. Tuesday seeing a similar theme of sunshine and showers. Western areas again probably seeing the heaviest showers, perhaps with a chance of thunder in one or two places and the showers could be slow moving at times in the fairly slack flow. Temperatures fairly similar to Monday although most places should get into the, especially away from North and Western coasts and high ground, the low or mid teens. Particularly again in Central and Eastern areas and from any longer spells of sunshine between the showers. This morning’s GFS charts from the 00Z run used as an example.

I think it’s time to get the orange and red crayons out and use them over the UK on that anomaly chart for May.

Light snow shower here with some small flakes. Though would prefer something heavier, still nice to see!

Gonna go for 8.7*C and 60mm of precipitation please. A chilly start looking likely, perhaps with some sleet or snow. But then probably getting warm to very warm as we progress further into the month. Somewhat less settled than March I reckon, but still staying fairly dry overall.

Will go for 7*C and 70mm rainfall, please. Probably less unsettled than February - some warm days and probably one or two wintry blasts as well

It’s like a snowy paradise in here this morning

Hi Crewe, to be fair, despite not being a huge fan of Atlantic type of weather, I do feel these last few days in particular have been interesting. All the variety we’ve had from the strong winds, squally cold fronts and showers and the mixture of rain, sleet, hail and for some too, snow! In fact, because it’s been a setup where the milder and colder polar airmasses have been in constant fight with each other, it has been making this period quite far from boring (as much as I like it when it’s dry and sunny, thundery or snowy). I’ve been alright thanks, been a busy few weeks with work and stuff. Be glad to see the backend of the pandemic even if we have to accept Covid is likely to stay with us for a long time. Hope you’re also doing okay dude. I imagine it’s been very wild where you are, although hopefully you’ve been able to keep safe!

More of a wintry mix here from that large shower with some rain and wet snowflakes. Amazing the change from the mild and wet conditions earlier to much colder weather with the sleet and snow. What a day!

A little bit of sleet mixed in the rain in Solihull. Better than fully pure rain I suppose

Feels reasonably pleasant at the moment behind the front that went through earlier - some wind, but also some blue sky and fast moving clouds. Am dreading later where it could become Blowyhull here. Hope you take it easy on your journeys today for those having to travel as it sure could get very rough for some. I also don’t blame anyone for wanting to have the day off work/school/college etc.

@Mapantz Seconded. Feels like Winter is charging in like Godzilla this week (especially this Friday!)

Just an overview from numerous operational models currently for Friday lunchtime: 06Z GFS 00Z ECMWF 00Z UKMO 00Z GEM 00Z JMA 00Z NAVGEM 06Z ICON All addressing continued variation as to the timing, track and intensity of the monstrous Low. Would be fair to say that the main operationals from the UKMO, GFS and ECMWF have the cyclone going through Northern England, more through Southern/Central Scotland on the GEM. But the UKMO, GFS and GEM have the Low being the most stormy looking and likely bringing the worst of the winds. Does look nearly as beastly on the ECMWF too, although has more of a shallower Low centre. JMA looks to have the Low a little less blown up in general and is a little further West than the 4 operational models above it (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and GEM). Although a touch further North than its previous 12Z run, the NAVGEM still keeps to quite a Southerly track similar to that of the ICON (which looks the furthest South) through Southern UK with the strongest of the winds for most areas avoided. Maybe quite blowy still for some Southern parts on those 2 models, but no more-widespread strong to gale force winds over the UK that the top 4 operational models above would provide. It kinda feels like a battle between the ICON/NAVGEM vs the GFS/UKMO/ECMWF/GEM. JMA perhaps closer to that of the GFS, UKMO, ECMWF and GFS, but is kinda in between those 2 groups of models. For those who hate stormy weather, you’d be hoping the ICON and NAVGEM are closer to the mark. And vice versa if you want to see things exploding over the UK. It would seem unlikely for the main operational models from the likes of the ECMWF etc to be off the mark (even those models could water-down or blow up the Low even further). Always a small chance that the ICON and/or NAVGEM could take the victory. Not to be completely discounted. Plus, ICON especially being the best for providing a spell of sleet and snow for places further South, particularly areas like the Midlands. The winds most likely being the most notable feature, however, but does depend how it all continues to evolve.

Even though it’s the 12Z run and is from the NAVGEM, it’s one of the other operational models that’s going for a dance with the ICON having the little fella going through the far South of the UK. Sure it probably won’t happen with a track further North being more likely, but I guess you never know.

Not much change from the 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly charts from the NOAA tonight. Continuation of the strong Westerly Atlantic driven pattern for the UK. Blustery and unsettled at times with large areas of low heights continuing to dominate to the North and North-West. Best of any drier periods in this setup towards Southern parts of the UK, and there is the likelihood of Northern areas, especially, being most exposed to chillier conditions from Polar Maritime-type flows behind the Atlantic Lows at times. This providing further possibilities of sleet or snow - particularly over higher ground. Just a hint, also, of the Jet Stream sinking a little further South on the 8 to 14 day chart as slightly lower than average heights shift a bit further South, and the upper flow over the UK becomes almost a direct Westerly compared to the more noticeable West-South-Westerly flow on the 6 to 10 day chart. 6 to 10 day 500mb chart Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 8 to 14 day 500mb chart Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV Changed orientation of the above charts to make them easier to see.

Have no fear guys, the UKMO’s more pronounced Polar/Arctic Maritime outlook has support… From the NAVGEM! (But I think a lot of you are doing the right thing not getting out the big pile of straws from the cupboard)

Could definitely get some quite good falls from that. Probably also at least a wintry mix of showers everywhere else in that chilly airmass. While maybe not the best setup for South-Eastern areas, wouldn’t totally rule out the odd wintry shower or something for those parts. Plus, for a spot of additional amusement, a possible spell of sleet and snow for some Western, Central, Southern and Eastern areas of the UK a day after (next Saturday into Sunday) - that 06Z run ordering a juicy beef burger of a developing Low within the Polar Maritime flow tracking South-East into the Channel/France from the North-West of Ireland.

Was thinking along similar lines. It’s nice also having the evenings drawing out and the mornings starting to get a bit more lighter.

There does seem to be that tendency for the models to show more of a pronounced North-West to South-East alignment to the Jet Stream into next week through the UK from our West in the Northern Atlantic. Some really low upper heights getting well East into Scandinavia at times. A rough illustrated example from the 06Z GFS, 00Z ECMWF, 00Z UKMO and 00Z GEM models at 144 hours with the broad track of the Lows/Jet. This leading to more widespread cold weather conditions over the UK from the North and West later into next week on many of those operational runs above. Although admittedly most of those solutions are easily outside of the more reliable closer time frame on the models, despite the similar solutions they show. But I think as long as some kind of favourable direction of the Jet Stream is maintained for colder weather conditions along with the Azores High staying pushed out far enough West/South-West (while also having the room to amplify at times), then some of that cold air to the North and West of the UK has a chance to flood quite far South and East at times. For those preferring a milder solution, then it’s just hoping the Jet Stream takes more of a North-East path through, and to the North of, the UK instead for mid and late next week and the Low heights pushing East or South-East into Europe gets toned down thus allowing more room for the Azores High to build East/South-East over Europe. As John also talked about above, the latest 500mb NOAA anomaly charts showing minimal changes to the pattern over the UK. Maybe even a slight lessening of the North-West to South-East flow over the UK from the West on its 8 to 14 day outlook: I would have said that apart from that, it feels like for now the chillier, and probably more cyclonic scenario, being the more likely solution. Have to see what the NOAA anomaly charts show later and whether they’ll update to reflect more of what the 7+ day operational models are showing deeper into next week. Otherwise the Azores High and the high heights may continue to hold more of its ground over/near the UK (especially Southern areas), than what a number of the operational models might have you believe. Still a chance of a wintry surprise for some later this Sunday into Monday, mostly for Northern UK high ground as that little Low from the West in the Atlantic runs into colder air to our North. Exact track, development and strength of Low liable to further changes, thus affecting the distribution of the rain, sleet and snow, and there may be some angry winds to watch out for, again especially for Northern and Western areas of the UK. An example from the latest GFS run below showing the Low heading South-East through the middle portion of the UK from Western and Northern Ireland. Quite blowy I would imagine too for Western areas as the deep surface Low takes a while to fill out on clearance East of the UK. Some snow over parts of Northern and Central Scotland, which could fall to low(ish) levels at times, especially in heavier bursts, as the Low bumps into those cold 850 hPa temperatures over Scotland. Some of this sleet and snow getting dragged further South over Scotland and into Northern England, particularly for the hills, as we head into Monday. Some rain and showers, maybe still wintry over the hills, further South through Wales and the Midlands. Some interest regarding weather events to come, more so for the Northern UK areas. While unsettled conditions may (is worth addressing the ‘may’) start becoming more invasive over the course of the next few or so days, there is further prospects of some drier, brighter periods between the rain and showers. This particularly so over Southern areas of the UK as the Azores High does try to throw further ridges Eastwards towards us. This the case later into today, later Saturday into Sunday (before the little Low steals the show) and during Monday:

Seems a lot more sunnier so far than what the forecasts were predicting for today. Almost clear blue sky here, which is very much welcome. Does also feel a little bit milder. Yesterday really did have quite a chill to it!

Not sure can quite see it being a cold month. Bit of a hunch/feeling any cold spells with possible snow being around the beginning or end of the month. 6.0*C and 80mm, please.

The are some differences, but there is a chance for things to start drying out a bit over the UK just after this weekend with the rain, hill snow and wintry showers, as the models show High Pressure, in some form, moving in over the UK into next week. And Low Pressure and low heights getting pushed away further North. You can see, as an example at 120 hours, that the models shift the Azores High from our South-West over the UK: 00Z GFS 00Z ECMWF 00Z UKMO The general pattern seems to be their for the build of pressure, but the above 3 models do address some uncertainty as to how far North the High moves over the UK from the South-West. The GFS looking the most keen to its North-Eastward progression of the High over the UK at that time-frame, where as the ECMWF, while still influential for most of the UK, has the main part of the High Pressure more suppressed to our West-South-West. Allows more of a keen Westerly flow spilling over the top for Northern Scotland. UKMO, I would say, kinda somewhere in between. At 144 hours, and we can see that because of the GFS’s keenness over its North-Eastwards build of pressure, the centre of the High Pressure pulls over to our East into the continent and a chance of a chilly light Easterly to South-Easterly flow developing for Southern parts of the UK. ECMWF keeps the High over South/South-Western UK and the UKMO has the High being pushed and squashed over to South-Eastern parts of the UK. The latter of which allowing tropical maritime air from the South-West to spill over the top of the High from the through the UK with some milder weather. 00Z GFS 00Z ECMWF 00Z UKMO So it does seem like some details to still be resolved, but the likelihood, especially for Southern parts of the UK, to see a more cyclonic (edit: sorry, meant anti-cyclonic) spell. The latest ensemble pressure mean from the GFS 06Z, does signal a build of High Pressure and increased upper heights over a large portion of the UK from the South-West. Which the 96 and 120 hours time-frame illustrates well: You can really see it build over the UK at the 120 hour mark. The ensemble mean showing the High Pressure continuing to progress Eastwards towards 144 hours, but still in good control over the UK. Some, particularly Southern areas, I can imagine would be wanting the GFS sort of solution, for that possibility of some chillier, and perhaps frostier, conditions to develop from any continental flow on the Southern flank of the High Pressure. Further North the High goes, and the more places that could see more of a continental flow. Either way a more settled spell, again, looks evident, although exactly where the High moves and settles in affecting where the distribution of the milder and/or chillier conditions occurs as well as the distribution of cloudier and brighter spells of weather.

Yep, let’s do try keep this to the models please all. Thanks. Some of the posts, such as those discussing past Winters, belong more in the Winter Chat, Moans and Ramps thread really. We would hate to have to also lock anyone up in our dark, gloomy, Netweather dungeon. (And trust me, you don’t want that as there’s not even any windows to see whether any snow is falling )

Must say, this was a nice surprise today (so far, anyway). Thought may have been on the wrong side of marginal here. It is wet, but been snowing quite well for about an hour(ish) now!

While not from the South West, have to admit that once Christmas has passed, feels like things start to somewhat drag. Some of that due to really wanting the days to quickly get longer again. Having said that, this brighter afternoon with the very mild temperatures (around 14*C here), makes it feel as though Spring has just woken up. Makes it hard to believe it’s only 29th December!

A valuable forecaster you’ve been. A treasure chest to Netweather. Wish you all the best, and hope you have great Christmas