BlueHedgehog074

Just like you said, weather-wise, more preferable than much of what we tend to endure at this time of year. ?? (Though I suppose the above can depend on the type of weather a person is after)

For many, seeing something white around the Christmas period would be splendid, so do get some of the frustration. Some of who have never seen a white Christmas, or if you have, would have likely been a long while ago. (Though is fair to say a few did see a white Christmas last year). Saying that, to add some perspective to things, these charts for around late December are synoptically much more interesting from a cold weather enthusiast’s point of view (blocking to North of UK, disrupting Lows to our South-West): than compared to a setup that’s dominated by a strong Vortex to our North-West/North and a flat strong zonal Westerly flow flooding the UK: Now it is possible that the setup towards this Christmas could deliver just mostly cold rain for many and, as such, some may just see the upcoming setup as being a bit of a waste. Not discarding the fact it could lead to something colder and wintrier further than the line, especially towards Boxing Day. However, in terms of weather patterns, I feel the cold weather enthusiast’s could be in a much worse position. It’s not that often really we see these kind of High Latitude Blocking charts during December.

(Rarely quote my posts but…) Edited original post again to reflect another new name change to this thread Please though do keep it friendly in here. Thanks all

Have edited my original post in this thread to reflect that of the name change. You’re certainly welcome to continue to use this thread for short range model discussion if you wish, though

Sounds like your instincts regarding how cloudy it was, was right on the money. The darn sunshine shield lol. All about not keeping your expectations too high really when it comes to things like the weather and their models/forecasts/charts.

I am indeed To be fair, I can understand the emotion that occurs in the main Model thread at times (even though some can be prone to overreacting sometimes). I think in some ways it’s worth trying not to get our hopes filled up too much with the disappointment they can lead to when they don’t happen. However with the time of year we’re in, it can be quite easy to get caught up in some of juicy charts that arise in the shadows of Fantasy Island, even when you realise the chances of them coming off as shown can be very unlikely

Indeed Crewe. Around here, and further South on that run, you may very well need a boat Was really hoping to try not get distracted to the models this Winter. But when they throw out scenarios like this, MOA (Model Output Addiction) pounces on you like a cat. Hopefully, with this setup (unless cold and snow is something you don’t want), none of us will be needing the boats!

My memory could be trying to confuse me, but feels like it’s been a long while since we last had a High Pressure system taking a tour of the UK in December. Particularly as strong as this: Something that the models do seem to show for next few days, so a good few settled and dry days ahead, even if not always bright or sunny. The examples above from tomorrow mid-day up to Tuesday next week (where most of the High could start getting drawn up towards Iceland/Greenland). Which brings me onto another thing - I anticipate this is what could happen with the teddies and stuff should the possible cold and wintry spell a lot are after not come off later next week

With regards to the possibility of the High Pressure getting at a high enough latitude for cold, wintry, weather, I suspect there’ll continue to be a lot of sitting on some of these Especially as outlooks like the GEM are far away (even though some of the signs do look encouraging). Not impossible still that this is what could happen to the High But again that scenario, at the moment, does seem less likely. The High Pressure probably either staying on a long trip over the UK… or maybe, just maybe (particularly for the cold weather enthusiasts) the right button for the High will indeed get pressed and a High Latitude Block emerges. To be honest, though, it’ll just be nice to see some drier, settled, weather, even if sunny or bright weather doesn’t always accompany the UK High Pressure. For some, any mist, fog and frost the High could bring could help makes things feel festive

One thing that I think can be guaranteed is a High Pressure system rocking around the Christmas Tree of the UK as we head further into this week. Examples from the 12Z runs of the GFS, ECMWF and UKMO at 120 hours: True though that the GFS 18Z, even for that range of Friday lunch time, has the UK High a bit more vertically stretched over the island. (Suppose also to illustrate that differences can definitely still happen at that sort of range) The rain will become terminated and a drier spell will conquer the UK. For a lot of you, these are the sort of scenes below I’d imagine you want to become surrounded with eventually. If the High does get into the Christmassy groove and march further North/North-East and/or West ?? However, can we kindly ask that if future models runs don’t end up to your liking (including the recent GFS 18Z, depending on your weather preferences), that any toys or missiles you feel tempted to throw go straight into this bin after. You’ll see it around the back of the Netweather Pram and Teddy Store. We hate having to clear up after a big mess. It’s tiring, and when the ground is littered with so many thrown toys, it becomes a serious tripping hazard! Would make our jobs easier too. Thank you for your co-operation ?

The GFS does seem to be kinda on its own with how far South it’s dropping the stormy Low compared to other models (the GFS 06Z run having it going directly over the channel around 90 hours) Is probably being a little over optimistic (even though very plausible), considering what the other models show. Does, however, certainly highlight that even 2 days away, the definite track and intensity of this devious cyclone is not fully resolved. Even though it would make for some compelling weather for those who like active weather events like that (which I appreciate), on a personal note, am hoping it won’t turn out too wild, despite the strongest of the winds generally likely towards Western UK parts. It’s just when you have to go out or travel in that sort of weather, it’s not so fun at all to be honest

A cool and showery day will be in store for many tomorrow as the 12Z GFS shows a keen North-Westerly flow over the UK. Showers, which could merge into some longer spells of precipitation at times, spreading South-East into numerous areas, especially North-Western parts. Cold enough, especially in heavier showers, to be wintry over high ground. Particularly the further North you are. It’ll be a cold night to follow, with temperatures dipping around and below freezing over some Northern spots. Particularly over high ground. Mostly dry, with clearer spells across many inland areas, which could allow a frost to develop, especially over Northern high ground. Though some showers, still wintry over high ground and perhaps to some lower levels, continuing over parts of Northern and Western Ireland, Wales, Eastern England and some Northern UK coasts A little ridge of High Pressure to the West of the UK on Sunday will edge it’s way Eastwards with a drier day developing for most. Low Pressure over North-Eastern France still close enough for some showers to continue along the far East of the UK, along with a breezy North to North-Easterly flow. Maybe still a few showers down some Western coasts as well. An area of rain then may slip East into Western Ireland from the West into Sunday night. Perhaps introducing some milder conditions there as the flow backs South-Westerly. This of which could introduce some sleet and hill snow (possibly getting to some lower levels) throughout Monday as the front runs into some colder air further East (Just as MattStoke covers above with an example from the 06Z GFS run). A fair variety of weather to be had in the next few days it has to be said and may still need to watch out what the possible storm does for Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Though I suspect it’ll become more of a shallower affair and maintain a more Southerly track that a few models have started to show again. A more Northerly track still can’t be ruled out, however

Hi Dimie and others, have decided to give the short range model thread another go. From the sounds of it, seems like a lot of you would be happy to see it back. You can check out the new thread right here: If it turns out not to workout, am happy to remove/lock the thread, but hopefully it’ll be something that becomes a useful resource for many alongside the main Model Output Discussion thread. Just to add, please don’t reply to my post as would hate for the Model Output Discussion thread to get detailed (Edit: sorry, don’t intend for this to come across as unfriendly or anything). Thanks guys

Hi all After some of the requests we had in the main Model Output Discussion recently, thought I would try and give this short range/slow-paced/alternate Model discussion thread another go. We did something similar a few years ago: and it sounds like something a lot of you would be happy to have. Thus we hope it’ll be a thread that a number will take part in (but don’t worry we won’t make you ). It’s a thread focussed on nowcasting and the models up to 5 days ahead (120 hours). Some of you may just be happy with discussing the models up to 3 days ahead, for example, which is perfectly fine. Just up to you really. Update 19th December: Due to recent changes to how the Model threads operate, this thread is now open to discuss models of the longer ranges. Just like previously, this thread would still be suitable for those who want a slower paced look at the models, hence the change of name to Slow-Paced Model Discussion (which has now been changed again to the Alternate Model Discussion). Please do continue to use this thread for short range discussion if you like The main Model thread, which you originally could use here (also had catered for long range Model discussion): …has now changed to a Hunt For Cold thread (please see link below). More for faster paced model discussion, that’s also more frantic and focuses more on chasing cold charts: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96509-model-discussion-hunt-for-cold-christmas-countdown/ Fancy just having a bit of a banter, moan, or ramp about the weather in general (which can still be loosely related to the models)? Please use this thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96442-winter-2021-22-moans-and-ramps-thread/ Posts in here don’t necessarily have to be in depth or technical, and is a thread that we expect will have a more quieter, balanced, laid back and perhaps a less cold focused feel to it, especially suitable for those who find the main/cold chasing model thread too fast and hair-raising at times. Suitable as well if you want to avoid the roller coaster of emotions that can happen in the other model thread. And the flying teddies! Please make sure to keep things friendly in here. Rude and nasty behaviour won’t be allowed. For any problems, please either report any offending posts or Private Message one of the team. We’ll come to the rescue as soon as possible (or whenever one of us is available). Thanks everyone

Indeed! Agree with a few others, it doesn’t really feel worth staying up for at the moment as pretty as it is. Not quite the match for Sunday’s snow.

Very wet light to moderate snow falling here now. Doubt it’ll settle much as is making everything wet currently (100 meters elevation), but always fun just seeing it fall. 4th time has snowed now in last few days. So not a bad start really

Just when it looked like it might have been a dry night, and yet here as well, there is a little covering of snow outside Feels like sometimes the models original predictions can ironically turn out to be closer to the mark.

A good morning to ya all With a new month marking the start of Winter for many (and a month closer to Christmas), a new regional Midlands chat thread to go along with it. Though, for some, Winter may have felt as though it started last weekend, as lots of us were greeted to the white stuff! Hopefully many more surprises to come for us this Winter, no matter what weather you’re after. And, as some discussed in the previous thread, another snowy spell could be on the way for tomorrow morning, although it seems quite hit and miss on the models at the moment. Latest 00Z GFS, for example, keeps it dry for the most part over our region, while the latest ICON still keeps bit of a feature, albeit mostly over the Western side of the Midlands: So probably a radar, window and lamp-posting watching situation. Always further opportunities throughout the season if not ?? Please feel free to continue your discussions of the weather in here. Thanks a lot all Previous thread:

While still likely to change, wish it could be timed for couples hours earlier With December now also here, (and as talked about couple days ago), gonna be putting the padlock on this thread and unlocking a new thread New thread:

Even as a mod, kinda think it is a shame that members can’t start new regional weather threads. I’ll try whip up a new one for Wednesday A great few wintry days it’s been, a chance certainly that Thursday morning could throw up another snowy surprise for a number of us!

Considering it’s only late November, feel like these last 2 days has put out more sleet and snow than what Winter 2018/19 and 2019/20 ever did

Snow losing it’s strength here now, but has been leaving a wet 1cm(ish) covering. Came down really nice and thick for a time earlier

Some of those who live around Solihull will be in for a nice white surprise - first snow (albeit wet and fairly sleety), falling of this Autumn/Winter here Sounds like some of you lot, especially in Stoke, really hitting the jackpot at the moment!

Although I don’t want to relight the fire (last few posts or so have been fine, for example), just worth remembering we all have our weather preferences, which ought to be respected. Room on this thread for everyone to voice their opinion and chase after the weather/charts they like. So let’s do keep it friendly in here. Cheers

Gonna go for 4.3*C and 50mm rain/snow, please. Just have a feeling it will be a pretty dry month overall. Quite chilly too, but with some milder periods thrown about at times.