BlueHedgehog074

Hi Rayth, also been trying to look myself, but sadly no luck finding anything. Have a horrible feeling that the Models threads from around that period have probably vanished into some kind of hidden vortex of the Netweather universe. (Maybe a small chance Paul might know something). Although not on the lead up to Winter 2010, John Holmes did a thread around December that year focussing on the daily output of the 12Z models: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/66549-a-daily-look-at-the-12z-output/#comment-1981122 Looking where both Casper’s hands are pointing, he’s seems to be showing the ideal ways for High Pressure to head in for cold (North-East or West).

Even though posting ensemble means of the 500mb and surface pressure charts in FI doesn’t always provide the most accurate representation of where things could head in the future, for the sake of it, the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean at 240 hours backs the mean Low in the Atlantic a touch further West compared to yesterday’s 12Z mean. And… the upper low heights around Southern and Western Greenland are less stronger. Help to add less power to Atlantic Lows. Yesterday’s 12Z ECMWF mean Today’s 00Z ECMWF mean While ideally another shift West would be great (bearing in mind these are still just ensemble means and I imagine there will be spread), it’s a little step in the right direction. Personally love to see a drying out at least with the weather and do hope for the block to the East to conquer the battle!

That is whale-ly incredible!

@phil nw. Some good points you’ve unearthed in your post. In fact, none of the latest operational models, especially the 12Z GFS and GEM, show the Vortex becoming all super moody over Greenland. This continuing being the case on both of those models up to 240 hours: 12Z GFS 12Z GEM Heart of the Vortex mostly on the other side of Greenland just to the North of it, especially on GFS where it’s greens occupying Greenland. While a weak Greenland and/or Canadian Vortex doesn’t (at least not always) necessarily guarantee cold and snowy weather for the UK, it can be a great thing to see from a cold weather fan’s perspective. Especially the way the lack of strong low heights to our North-West/North can allow Northern blocking via high heights and surface High Pressure to develop. Clearly can be some exceptions where a Greenland Vortex doesn’t always have to be any enemy for UK cold if, for example, it was just about far enough West and allowed Scandinavian heights to become influential enough to bring cold, wintry, conditions to our part of the world. Nevertheless, we’ve always got this as a secret weapon should the blue and purple thing cause trouble for the cold weather enthusiasts in the future!

We’ll probably even end up needing boats at some point should these wet, stormy and showery conditions continue (which the models show looks very likely bar the odd brighter day or two) In some ways, it’ll be nice for a drier spell to develop soon at some point as, although storms are cool and all particularly of the thundery kind, the general wet, grey, conditions gets too much after a while.

Now, now, now… let’s keep it friendly please guys, or we’ll have to zap the posts to dust. Plus, we’ll make you eat a whole plate of fallen-on-the-floor brussel sprouts.

Focussing around 144 hours on various 00Z operational models, it really feels as though the Atlantic trough and the block to the East of the UK will be in serious combat with each other, as they battle it out to see who will win! ICON UKMO GEM ECMWF GFS UKMO possibly the highlight of the bunch at the 144 hour timeframe regarding the Scandinavian/European block having a bit more fighting power, and a good effort by the ECMWF too (even though the Atlantic trough does take more of the spotlight towards the end of the run). Saying that, however, most of the models above (except maybe the GEM) mark out some negative tilting to the Atlantic trough to our West suggesting it is lacking the full power needed to easily smash through further East. Do feel overall, it’s hard to pick who will prove victorious. There has been many times where “we’ve been here before” and the Atlantic just breaks through. Equally, this could be one of those times that The Block comes out on top, even if it takes a while for it to succeed the battle, due to how the Atlantic seems to have been behaving in the last few months - never really having totally domination! For the time being, a big big battle could very well be commencing between both forces!

Newport in Shropshire: - 14*C

With the way the models are continuing to go, sounds like there must be lol. Managing to withstand much force from the West at the moment. A wall, though, that may lead to favourable outcomes for the cold weather enthusiasts further down the line.

It looks like the weather for the UK will cool down a bit as the very mild to warm Southerly flow becomes toast. The Atlantic and its Lows does start to take more influence and the flow over the UK becomes more Westerly to South-Westerly (examples from various models around 168 to 240 hours)… GFS 00Z ECMWF 00Z GEM 00Z …but considering what some of the operational models were showing yesterday, for those wanting some proper chilly and/or dry conditions, it does feel like a… this morning! I would however say it’s a bit early to worry yet for those after some blocked, settled and/or cold conditions. (Maybe if this sort of theme continued after mid-month, then it might become more of a concern). Is possible some of these operational models could be a touch progressive with the progression of the Atlantic Lows from later next week onwards. And even then, it kinda feels as though the Lows struggle a little bit to push too far to the East of the UK - after all the core of the lowest upper heights seem to just stay put to the North-West of the UK. Wouldn’t say the pattern upstream, especially on the GFS, is terribly flat either (some amplification towards the Western Atlantic with still signs of the high heights towards Southern and South-Eastern mainland Europe). If I’ve also analysed the latest 8 to 14 day 500mb NOAA anomaly chart correctly, although it shows an upper Westerly flow being maintained over the UK, I feel it gives the impression of Atlantic Lows struggling to make huge progress Eastwards to the East of the UK - the lowest of heights staying out West. Think for some, it should start to feel a bit more like Autumn into next week, while mostly feeling like standard fayre. Some, though, still wanting drier and/or colder conditions - plenty of time for it yet. Just slight hints maybe that the 00Z operational models being a smidge fast with the Atlantic (or probably any incursions from the Atlantic Lows being temporary). Nevertheless, I admit because that anomaly chart above goes up to day 14, and I only used examples from the operational models up to day 10, I may be being a bit biased in my approach and model comparisons. Plus in deeper FI, the 00Z GFS does have the heights to the South-East of the UK somewhat starting to put up more of a fight again. Personally, despite some of the wet conditions, have been enjoying some of the very mild weather that’s been on offer this week making it feel quite Summer-like at times.

I take it just that little bit too hot for you? Get the impression overall quite a lot of you liked this Summer (also dependant on region as some of your further North wished it could have been sunnier). But for quite a few it could have done being cooler and with more storms. Lack of storms of which I did feel let this Summer down a little.

Weather seems confused about what season it is Summer wants to keep on fighting back. While it’ll probably change, at least I suppose it would be mainly dry and great walking weather (which admittedly wouldn’t mind). I understand for a number of people, it would be nice to see something chillier, or just more seasonal really.

A guess of 7.2*C and 60mm, please. Mild or warm start possible, but reckon it’ll get rather cold after mid-month with some frost and perhaps a spot of wintry weather.

Must say that is an impressive line of showers/storms over Eastern UK. Sounds like some of you getting a right show out of some of that lot ️

(Final thing to add, for those who were typing out a post on here, would recommend copying and pasting reply to new thread. Sorry again )

(All sorted now: Will be putting the padlock on this thread now Sorry for the inconvenience)

Howdy Please continue your discussions of the models in here. Felt a bit of a fresh start was needed. Previous thread was also getting very very long. We kindly ask you to please keep things friendly in here. Posts that are: rude, harassing other members, full of colourful language or are overall unsuitable for this thread are considered unacceptable. And repeated offences of this may find you banned or suspended from this thread (and a lovely long stay in our Netweather Jail ) Of course, though, we would hate to do that and trust everyone to keep this place welcoming. A place that we would want to visit and be part of. We do advise you double-check the contents of your post before hitting submit to make sure it is model related. For general discussion about the weather this season, the Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps and Chat is already very active, so please head over there: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/97423-autumn-2022-moans-ramps-chat/#comments Although we’re getting quite deep into Autumn now, it looks like the weather will continue to be mild to warm this week as the models unleash further South-Westerly to Southerly winds over the UK (perhaps more Westerly tomorrow): With Low Pressure close by to the West of the UK in the Atlantic, this will bring further spells of rain and showers to places - some showers of which will likely to continue being thundery. Eastern and South-Eastern areas seeing the best of the brighter spells between the wet weather at times. Some windy periods too, especially towards Western and North-Western areas. For the time of year, there is some (very) impressive warmth from this setup. Also, for a bit of fun (something that I think was covered in the previous thread), is that this mornings 00Z ECMWF run at 234 hours has the 850 hPa temperatures getting this warm over South-Western UK: 16*C 850 hPa temperatures! Even for Summer that is something! (tho not exceptional). Plus this very recent post additionally from Scorcher in the previous thread covering something similar: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/97297-model-output-discussion-autumn-arrives/?do=findComment&comment=4729472 Some of you I’m sure will be looking for colder weather at some point. Frost, snow, freezing fog, etc. Will November bring a change to the weather pattern? Can it bring a setup favourable for many of the cold weather enthusiasts seeing the strong heights to the East of the UK over mainland Europe give up the ghost? Time will tell. Previous thread:

Very impressive indeed. Even this mornings ECMWF model towards the end of the run had something similar regarding the warm 850 hPa temperatures! Will also be locking this now. New thread coming up in a sec (Edit: Sorry about this, going to have to briefly unlock this thread again as accidentally deleted some content in the new thread I’ve been planning to do. So sorry )

While it’s fairly quiet, will be letting loose a new model thread within the next hour. Particularly also with how things went on in here earlier this morning and, along with the billions of pages this thread has gone through, feels like it needs a fresh start.

Looking at the models, it does look all quite stalemate at the moment. I guess as Anyweather says, the South-Westerly to Southerly flow on this setup does provide some further chances of warm weather, especially between the rain bands and showers. While not particularly settled, and would be some blowy weather about, Summer trying (certainly temperature wise and during brighter spells), to have a further little spat with Autumn. (Although I can’t help but wish everything was shifted just a little more further West). At some point I’ll be looking forward to some colder weather with some frost and snow. Even if it’s just a couple of 1 week cold spells. Perhaps all you need to do, though, is simply turn off the washing machine

Autumn looks like it’ll be rocking around throughout much of this week. Some further showers to come on a chilly North-Westerly to Northerly wind, especially over Northern, Northern-Eastern and North-Western spots. Troughing over North-Western Europe just to our East: Likely a bit of a break on Friday with A little ridge shifting East over the UK before the Atlantic Low from the West with its disturbance brings in a spell of rain. The North-Westerly winds come back for another fight over the weekend, though showers are likely to decrease in number later in the weekend, especially across the South-West, as another (somewhat more wider) ridge of High Pressure from the South-West starts shifting towards the UK: The 6 to 10 day 500mb anomaly chart from the NOAA does show an appetite for the weather to settle down into next week for the UK (certainly become less unsettled and it doesn’t look wet) as upper heights look to increase. Highest towards South-West of the UK. Operational models, such as the latest ECMWF, does show some fairly good support for the weather to start settling down next week. (Well, to be fair, it has the ridge building over the UK into early next week, then gets pushed further South-East clinging over that part of the UK. Never leaves completely. But later into next week, the ridge comes back and puts up a stronger fight over the whole UK). Perhaps a real possibility, depending how the outlook continues to shape up and the particular placement of High Pressure, for Summer to give Autumn one last punch in the face before next year. It’s however possible too for some chilly nights with a possible chance of frost in this sort of setup. But does again depend exactly where High Pressure sets up and the clearness of the nights. One other thing, should the Polar Vortex cause trouble for both the mild and cold weather enthusiasts this Winter, am gonna ink it to death with one of the guns from Splatoon 3.

10.2*C and 52mm precipitation, please. I feel it will be a fairly chilly and dry overall with a mid-Atlantic High being quite influential. The odd warmer Summery spell still trying to break through. Then an unusually cold unstable Northerly on the 29th with widespread rain, hail, sleet and snow showers.

Is amusing just as we get into Autumn and when I’m away in the Peak District the thunderstorm shield smashes apart! Smashing it down here near Ashbourne with frequent thunder and lightning

Made a bit of a welcome change to have August being one of the most desirable months of Summer this year. (I understand that how good August 2022 would have been depended where in the UK you are and a persons weather preferences).

I know what you mean. It seem to take a while for the weather to warm up (at least during the first part of the season), and then before we knew it, we had those recording breaking temperatures later in July.