BlueHedgehog074

Not looked at the models or been on here in the last 3 weeks, so have no idea how next month will pan out whatsoever . My guess will be for a cool(ish) start, perhaps some colder weather with snow towards mid-February. And then warming up a lot into last third of the month where it could feel very March or April-esque for a time accompanied by lots of sunshine. A CET of 6*C and 65mm rain/snow please. Tar!

Indeed. Make it happen, 2023!

Those naughty storms! They better be on their best behaviour throughout Spring and Summer.

From the way it’s handled today’s Low to North-West of the UK at 7 days out (including position, depth and shape of Low), the NAVGEM amazingly looks to have outclassed the rest. A reasonable job it’s done as well with how it’s handled the surface High over the East and North of Scandinavia. Way to go, NAVGEM. Not a bad model at all.

Sounds like a fair well-rounded summary, Phil nw. Possibly could squeeze something a little bit wintry outside of areas (Northern and Western high ground) exposed to the chilly Polar Maritime flows from chances of disturbances or smallish Lows mixing into colder flows from the West and North. Probably though nothing more than that (but a more unexpected widespread snowfall could pop about). It does feel like fairly standard fair. More amplification of the mid Atlantic/Azores High Pressure along with less in the way of lower heights to the North of the ridging could of course lead to something more notable for our part. But must admit, can’t currently see any cool to colder shots being long lasting. Not yet anyway. Just have to keep remembering that our Winter’s aren’t full of Northern blocking year after year. Same goes with the deep cold that can accompany the Northern blocking. To further add, also, that some decent snowy spells can occur without the need of deep cold and strong blocking to our North (which am sure has been brought up a few times before in the past).

Would be nice to have a decent shot of proper Winter weather before the season is through with us, since there is still plenty of time for it. A lot of people on here would love that. Some of the chillier shots the models showing later into there runs that, should they not water-down much, giving a flavour of more wintrier weather. Perhaps with Southern areas in for a surprise also from any runner Lows from the main troughing to our North/East going through the South of the UK. So is a start (without forgetting that the first part of December was pretty amazing for its cold weather, despite some snow shields staying strong for some). You could argue really that like other seasons Winter is about the variety. Great having a mixture of different weather types. With snow and cold clearly being a favourite for some. And I think the weather that some of us wish was more dominant. I do totally understand MattWolves, I’ll get in that naughty corner right away and think about what I’ve done. PS: Still like Winter, just less than I used to (also feeling bit bipolar/rough currently), so hopefully that will reduce my time in the naughty corner for 1 less second. Without the risk of bringing this thread too off topic, the rest of you could end up in our naughty corner or dungeons like me if your posts are off topic, or just moaning about the Winter .

Will have to take more of yours and Bluearmy’s advice on board regarding mean and anomaly charts (still continuing to learn), as I remember last time you mentioned to look out for the DAM line/thicknesses. Wouldn’t be surprised either for any cooler or colder blasts, particularly from the North-West, being quite transient at the moment, as I’m not sure if any of the amplification of High Pressure out West is robust enough to maintain a cold flow for long. I guess, though, any continued pressure put on the Vortex in general, including that from High Pressure over the Arctic or Russia area, could eventually may be lead to something more substantial along the line for cold or very cold weather for the UK.

Kinda a shame if that’s the case (not that I don’t believe you as, you, John Holmes etc, have some of the best experience with these charts). But I must admit, even though further possibilities of cold and snowy conditions can’t be ruled out on the models, especially with quite a lot of Winter left, I actually can’t wait for Spring now. For some reason, (except for the snow part), just don’t enjoy Winter as much as I used to and I don’t understand why.

The NOAA 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly chart supports the idea of chillier blasts of weather from around the North-West sort of sector. A West-North-Westerly upper flow over the UK combined with lower than average heights over the island extending East into mainland Europe and much of Scandinavia. Higher than average heights over both the Arctic and Eastern Canada/Western North Atlantic too. A scenario that allows the Jetstream to dig South towards/near the UK and into the nearby continent to encourage chilly conditions to spill in from between the West and North: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php Also watching that The Big Snow of 82’ program on Channel 5 and have to say is very interesting. All the snow that fell, seeing how people coped and the impact on the transport - all very absorbing and informative. Worth checking out if you haven’t yet (going to be going back to watching it ). Might not be quite at that level regarding what the models show (but with the energy struggles a number been going through, that could be seen as a relief - much as some would to see big falls of snow like that ). Though is still a possibility, for now, of colder conditions that might bring some wintry weather conditions away from Northern high ground. Particularly should some of the possible colder shots from between the West and North improve along with stronger amplification out West.

I think that went through earlier today (lead to some brighter skies for a time once the heavy rain cleared). Must have been from this little squall line from this showery area of precipitation later this afternoon.

Was about time, but something more interesting in the last 5 minutes; a squally torrential downpour of rain and hail with very strong winds just blasted through. Went absolutely mental for a few minutes but has calmed down (just fairly heavy rain and less-strong winds now).

Even though it got really hot in a couple of instances, for here, Summer was only really one of the things weather-wise I liked about 2022. Mostly dry and bright which is what I liked, even though there could have been a bit more in the way of thunderstorms and overnight rain to make up for the fact some of the plants were suffering from the dry and hot weather. Thunderstorms are additionally just fun to observe. Rather enjoyed most of Spring, too. Offered a fair amount of sunny and useable days, but I think was quite showery at times too. Only other exception for this year was the early to mid December cold spell. Despite the snow shield staying mostly at full power (took a little battering on the odd occasion), the frosty conditions combined with the dusting of snow lasted for a number of days, more specifically over shaded areas. Made the landscape seem enchanting.

Yep, just a break from this pattern. Feels worse when you’re getting up early and it’s dark, cloudy and wet.

We don’t mind if people want to post off topic stuff in the Model thread. It’ll just mean you’ll end up in this lovely, dark, room with bars on it… Wouldn’t also mind a lengthier drier, bright, spell at the moment with High Pressure, as frequent dull, gloomy, weather does get very depressing and makes Spring seem so desirable.

Do feel as though things have been recently drifting off topic a bit. Some of the latest posts being more at home in the Winter chat, moans and ramp thread: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98050-winter-2022-moans-ramps-chat/ If you’re a cold weather fan, I’ll take down your snow shield if you stay (or get back) on topic. And if you hate the cold and snow, I’ll promise to leave your snow shield alone (again, if you ensure to keep your post on topic). Cheers everyone.

We do for sure have some incredible model output and chart analyser’s in here. The knowledge by some is just out of this world! (Although I appreciate all the posts people do in here no matter how big, small, technical, non-technical they are). If you were to write a book about the weather, and/or some kind of guide to the models, I bet it would get sold out faster than a flash of lightning.

While it’s far into the dreamland, it’s literally gone from a Scandinavian High to a Scandinavian trough! What I think all the cold weather fans should do is track down the shrink ray in Despicable Me, point it at both the European High and Atlantic Lows. Then hopefully the Atlantic Lows will be too feeble to fight the modest Scandinavian High and just take a trip into mainland Europe drawing Polar Express weather towards the UK.

I see where you’re coming from mushy - the upper flow on that 8 to 14 day chart for the UK turning more from the North-West direction, which does give the impression of increasing influence of chillier conditions from Polar Maritime flows. So certainly a chance for a more wintry flavour to the weather, especially for North and Western parts. Admittedly, I probably wouldn’t have paid much attention to the fact that the 528 Dam contour line sat close/over the Northern part of Scotland on the runs. Have to bear something like that in mind next time when looking at the charts.

Noticed there were an odd few concerned about the thread going widely off topic from the Happy New Year messages in here over the last 12 or so hours. In general circumstances, off topic posts would be moved or terminated - the rules to keep things broadly on topic in the thread would apply. It’s just it was approaching and reaching the start of the New Year, let alone it still being the Christmas period. Allowing people to wish everyone a Happy New Year in here (same when we let everyone wish others a Merry Christmas or Happy Easter), was for a bit of light hearted fun. And I think it would have removed any sense of spirit if we were to be tough on those who did the Christmas and New Years messages on the model thread. Plus, this wouldn’t be the only thread it happens on (similar sort of messages in the regional weather chat threads, for example). You would probably also find it’s the same on some of the busy/main threads on other forums from other sites, where moderators or admins might temporary relax the rules in those threads for people to wish others a Merry Christmas and/or Happy New Year in there. It might make the relevant information some like to look for on these threads, even at this time of year, more difficult. Though is not something that happens everyday (unless it was Christmas and New Year’s Day everyday, although I guess we wouldn’t permit Christmas and New Year’s Day messages flooding this thread every day ). Just my personal opinion anyway, but moderation as I think Eagle Eye brought up in the past can be a subjective role and not always easy to please everyone. Gonna now quickly add something model related before someone gets thrown behind bars… The 6 to 10 day 500mb anomaly NOAA chart keeps to a Westerly, Atlantic, pattern for the UK: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php Upper flow over the UK from the West with lowest heights over Southern Iceland. Chart does still exhibit some modest heights over the Arctic area extending South into North-Eastern parts of Scandinavia. Heights not significantly above average to suggested proper upper Arctic heights, but some weak heights in that area possible at times, which may put some pressure on Atlantic Low Pressure. Not enough at the moment I feel to alter the pattern much for the UK. Doesn’t overall scream cold or snowy for the UK (away from probably Northern high ground/hills). At least for this 6 to 10 day period, best that could be hoped for is some chilly Polar Maritime type flows from the West or North-West at times.

Well… there’s a lot of off topic posts tonight - though no point throwing anyone in prison from here as there would be too many people to fit in. Is all fine being that it is the New Year We’ll surely let you all off for the New Year messages, they are very sweet And does show what a nice site this is. I pray that 2023 dazzles us with delight! Same with the models; delight us with some smashing weather! In the case of Winter, for one person, that could be 50cm of snow. For another, an extremely mild, dry, day with temperatures up to 18*C.

Greetings all. A new thread for the New Year. A year to hopefully bring a fresh new start with weather to excite us all. Once again, let’s keep things friendly and welcoming in here please. At this time of year especially, many users and guests like to visit and take part in the Model thread, so I hope we can provide a good reason for doing so. Posts that harass other member’s, contain vulgar and insulting language, disrespects people’s differing weather preferences, are unrelated to the thread and are just generally unpleasant won’t be accepted. Repeated offences of the above will mean having to wave bye bye to your post(s) as you will never see them again! You may also get kicked out of the thread and land yourself in, What’s worse, there’s no Wi-FI or any mobile signal in our slammers, so you wouldn’t even be able to view the latest models… We understand, however, this is a faced paced thread and due to the nature of the models, it’s easy to get a yo-yo of emotions. As such, we expected things to get rather heated at times and appreciate the thread won’t always be 100% smooth. To be fair, no one’s perfect all the time, so we’re willing to let a bit of aimless feel occur on here from time to time. I mean, there is room for some humour and fun on here, unless it starts greatly derailing the thread, and the fun and chuckle-ly posts become rather off-topic. You’re welcome to report unsuitable posts on here. The moderators and admins will get out their superhero suits and neutralise the threat of the thread going sour or off-topic as fast as possible. Additionally, you can private message us if you have problems with posts in here that need bringing to our attention. It may be tempting, especially when in a huff, to go on a rant with the posts/posters on here you have a problem with. But we advise, if feeling that way, to take a little time-out and come back again when in a better mood. We all have our own opinions on here and all view and analyse the models in our own individual ways, so let’s please respect that. Like with debates in real-life, you’re welcome to challenge the posts of those who may have analysed the models incorrectly as longs as it’s done in a considerate manner. While I like to think we do a cracking job, I appreciate all of us moderators and admins can have different perspectives as to what we find to be suitable and unsuitable. Which, appreciably, can affect consistency at times. Is one of those threads that is not always easy to keep the right balance - some people might find some moderators are too strict, while others might be thinking some need to be tougher. Again, you’re welcome to drop us a message if you feel one (or more) of the moderators have been unfair towards something, or if you feel anything could be improved. For moans, ramps and general chat about the Winter, please feel free to use this thread here: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98050-winter-2022-moans-ramps-chat/ Just a quick little summary of the models - it looks like the Atlantic dominated weather will continue. A general flow from the West. High Pressure generally across the South and South-East and Low Pressure dominating to the North-West of the UK. This bringing further spells of rain and showers to places, particularly across North-Western areas, while Southern areas could see bit more in the way of drier weather at times, especially from little ridges of High Pressure that cross Eastwards through the UK. Maybe a little more in the way of wider-spread settled weather into Friday next week with a little Atlantic ridge shifting East over large portion of the UK. Though Monday this week could be pretty dry as well: Mixture of cooler and milder periods with the alternating South-West to North-West flows. Northern areas seeing the best of the chilliest conditions were some of the rain and showers likely to be wintry over higher ground at times. The models, especially the 06Z GFS, do tease with more pronounced chillier weather from the North-West, and even North, later into the period which may heighten the risk of more widespread wintry weather. And maybe not even just for the Northern hills and high ground either! But… can it happen? Or are models such as the GFS over doing the amplification and eagerness to drop Low Pressure into Europe? Something for the cold weather enthusiasts to have excitement about. Thanks guys and please continue your discussions I would also like to wish you a great New Year - I hope it’s a blessed and joyful one for you all. Previous thread:

Sorry it’s a bit short notice, but with New Year on the way, there’ll be a new Model thread coming. Soon. (Thought would just mention. If unable to finish your post in time, you can copy it and then paste it into the posting form onto the new thread when it is released. Or copy it into Word/Notepad/Notes etc and then copy back onto the new thread). Edit: putting the padlock on this now. New thread up very shortly New thread:

Despite the pretty nice 00Z ECMWF mean towards the end of it’s run, in terms of 850 hPa temperatures, the ECMWF operational run was on the cold side of things for a time towards the end of the graph. Shown on the example below for Birmingham: For Aberdeen, the operational was also on the colder side of things from January 5th (not hugely so), then becoming close to the mean at the end of the graph: Bit of a surprise, but might mean models may be partly overdoing how chilly some of the West to North-Westerly flows might be (not to say though that the operational isn’t right). The 00Z Mogreps ensembles does offer some colder options after a peak in milder 850 hPa temperatures from 5th January onwards, though most struggle to go below -5*C 850 hPa temperatures. Despite that, with it being further North, the Aberdeen ensembles (2nd chart below/across) has quite a few of the ensembles members clustering fairly tightly around the -5*C mark: I do agree nothing particularly remarkable, but some kind of cool down for a time from 5th January onwards, seems possible. Mind, there’s always this should not much in the way of white stuff occur in the next 2 or so weeks… ️ (Edit: noticed poster above beat me to some of it)

A nice area that is, Arnside (the fact that it’s near the Lake District feels like a plus). Great walks along the bay and along some of the hills. And you have Grange-over-Sands nearby with that very very cool promenade. Fair to say, though, I’ve never been to Arnside and Grange-over-Sands during the Winter, but I imagine it’s still nice during that time of year and probably quite peaceful.

Looking at the progression between the 6 to 10 day, and the 8 to 14 day, 500mb anomaly charts from the CPC/NOAA, there could be a chance for the Atlantic, Westerly, dominated pattern to allow more in the way of cooler shots from the West/North-West sector going into the 8 to 14 day period. So maybe at least more of a Polar Maritime influence at times: 6 to 10 day: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php 8 to 14 day: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php Upper flow (green line) over the UK is more from a direct Westerly direction on the 8 to 14 day chart compared to the more West-South-Westerly flow from the 6 to 10 day chart. While no signs yet of a proper Scandinavian block (no guarantee one will rock about), heights are a fair bit above average over the Eastern and Central Canada area, and also over the Arctic. Not high enough for a true Arctic High or anything, but a chance for some weak(ish) Arctic heights, so no strong Polar Vortex sitting on a chair over the Arctic. Not a very cold or snowy paradise, (though I imagine rather cold and wintry for the Scottish hills and mountains), but a chance for chillier conditions at times again later into the period. Even the South could experience less milder or chillier conditions at times. With the 6 to 10 day anomaly chart showing some of the above average heights across Southern/South-Eastern UK lowering on the 8 to 14 day chart along with some of those above average Arctic and Eastern/Central Canadian heights, this could assist Low Pressure areas in the Atlantic to go further East. Thus letting chillier air from the West/North-West to become more of an influential player for the UK. Nothing much out of the ordinary but would somewhat increase chances of wintry weather, albeit probably mostly for high ground Northern and Western areas