BlueHedgehog074

Only just noticed you beat me to it with one of the articles posted about what’s needed for snowfall Sorry I didn’t see it earlier Certainly a great post this read this morning. Just one thing to add while I’m here (just examples from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and GEM below at 144 hours)… 06Z GFS 0Z ECMWF 00Z UKMO 00Z GEM …and not much desire for them now to sink the Western UK High/Ridge into Europe. Something that most operational models, except UKMO, had tried to do on and off in the last 2 (or 3) days. Good support from the models to see a big bulk of that ridge being scooped up towards Greenland/Western Iceland. Although the GFS 06Z had made things fairly complicated with that shortwave/Low it dropped down from Iceland (which admittedly sent down a fairly shallow and little area of the Icelandic/Greenland ridging briefly into Europe), the cold from the North via the Scandinavian trough having a less frustrating time in general reaching the UK on the above runs due to them trying to keep the heart of the ridging to the North West of the UK. The UKMO above looking the tidiest with the evolution of the Greenland High and cold flow from the North/North-East.

Noticed we do seem to get a lot of questions and debates from the discussions in here, particularly from the worry about whether the 850 hPa temperatures in the models, will be cold enough to deliver snow. Now, clearly, there are several factors as to whether snow will come to visit your area from above. Both John Holmes and Snowking did some smashing write-ups below regarding the factors needed for snowfall (also go into details of these factors):

I think the models have caught the 12Z Syndrome this morning - often less encouraging for cold/wintry outlooks in their 00Z runs and more encouraging for them during their afternoon updates.

Though likely to be expected, you could use even the strongest magnifying glass in the universe, but I wish anyone luck to be able to spot the Vortex on the Western side of the Northern Hemisphere on the GFS 18Z.

I would also rate Winter in a similar way. An alright Winter overall. Pretty lousy for the white stuff, although had a dusting in December which lasted roughly a week in patches (bigger dumpings further South), and then another little dusting around mid-January. So a little better than the worst of the Winters for snow. Could have been better, though the cold spell in December was decent for the thick frost and strength of cold it brought. I did like also how mid January onwards generally brought a lot of bright, sunny and, at times, frosty weather - the dry and bright theme continuing on and off throughout February. But the grey blanket in the sky tending to become a more invasive feature the later into this month we have got. On the brighter days of this month, particularly when it was accompanied by milder days, it did feel like Spring made an early appearance - some daffodils having burst into flower in the last week or so. Some buds on some bushes and trees opening out a bit. The wet period during later December running up into mid-January was my least favourite part. Making me feel rather SAD at times (but I appreciate the rain was probably needed). I think I would remember this Winter for both the December cold spell and for, aside from a fairly brief period, how calm and settled the weather has been. Just needed a good blanket or two of the snow and just the odd one or two wild windstorms. But, for me, am pleased it wasn’t a washout here, as prefer Winter’s to be quite dry. December 2022: 7/10 January 2023: 5/10 (mostly saved by 2nd half) February 2023: 4.5/10 Overall rating: 5.5/10

Looks like the award goes to :

Is one of those continued situations from the models where it’s worth giving them more time as to how they develop the blocking patterns. The MJO, SSW, migration East of the Vortex and such. All having an impact on the sorting out of the pattern. Because… …is really the case, currently.

The erratic nature of the models is perhaps foreseeable at the moment due to various stuff they gotta straighten out. Sometimes throwing the chilly weather enthusiasts into the dreams of cold and snowy heaven. And sometimes into the horror of the snowless abyss. Former, though, appears true from both GFS and ICON this afternoon as they bring the Beast back… from the North! (Something that did seem a real possibility and something that could still happen). With the case of Northern blocking, as longs as it fends away all the wicked forces that could knock it out, or scare the block away into Europe or too far North and West, Beasts from the East could come to the cold fans’ parties as well. While some will be longing for warmth, and others longing for a bite in the tail of Winter, any shipshape Northerlies/Easterlies better not take an old faulty slow boat towards the UK, otherwise it might sink before it gets here. An easy thing to happen with cold and snowy spells sometimes. ️

Because of how the Vortex in the Stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere will continue to be affected from the warmings, I wouldn’t surprised about a second try of High Latitude Blocking setup. It was an engrossing trip through the thread this morning collecting all these discarded things, So I have now ironed out all of them and folded them neatly for you all to collect, I mean, I admit it is looking quite iffy as to whether the UK High can migrate far enough into the Iceland/Greenland area with the Scandinavian trough losing the fight to back far enough West and South towards the UK to deliver cyclonic cold snowy conditions. In that sense, it’s nice to see objectivity surrounding this. But I would, for now, perhaps hold onto the towels to see whether there’s still a chance that the pattern for early March can shift back West (assuming it doesn’t collapse too quickly) - even if previous experiences tends to demonstrate that these things often go further East. Reason I also say this as, not only could there be other possible chances for cold and/or wintry weather throughout March, but I can imagine the SSW is going to provide some on-going challenges as to how the models handle the weather patterns in the next few weeks.

CET guess of 5.5*C please and 60mm of rainfall (10% of that from snow). Chilly start and mostly dry. But then they’ll be a battle between the UK High and the Scandinavian trough which, if the latter wins, sleet and snow will swoop in on the UK blasting wintry forcefields apart. Despite how the SSW could continue to affect the Northern Hemisphere pattern, I have a feeling any snow will retreat past mid-month allowing warmer Spring weather to envelop the UK. Nevertheless, the snow will get its revenge on the warmer weather into late March. But the warm weather not going down without a fight. What a brawl it will be.

Although some of us were considering bringing a Hunt For Cold Thread back to life both this and last Winter, I think we will have to seriously consider giving it a whirl next Winter. Just see how it goes again. Have it run alongside a more chilled out/generally slower paced general model chat thread. If it doesn’t work out, then can always transform the Hunt For Cold Model thread back into a general Model Output Discussion thread. And then maybe have the relaxed/slower paced general Model thread become an in-depth Technical Model thread for those wanting to discuss the more detailed and/or scientific aspects of the charts and models. (Though I suppose the relaxed/slower paced general model thread could double as a technical thread anyway. And it would be easy to have too many model threads running at once). We’ll probably put up a poll during Autumn asking people how they would like the Model thread(s) to run during Winter. We’ll try to follow through with what ever gets the majority of votes. Can again alter things should we find the option with most votes doesn’t end up cutting the mustard.

Some light definitely trying to cling on around 6pm now. A pretty decent amount of progress compared to where things were a couple months ago.

Would also say that what could be considered an upgrade on the models, might be a downgrade for someone else. All subjective, really

Hi Mushy, thanks for providing the comparison.:) Really interesting to see and I think for anyone wanting to see something colder still, they do look nice with that possibility of something cold from the North and North-East.

Hi Rain, While I admit that John, Mushy, Bluearmy etc tend to have more insight on these anomaly charts compared to my experience of them, it looks to me like they want to establish a High/Block over Iceland with a slack upper flow over the UK. Interesting to see as it would look like leading to colder conditions for the UK. A fairly nice surprise to see despite a few days break from surveying the models (but then I guess the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event signposted this as a possibility). While some will be looking forward to some warmer weather of Spring, this does provide a chance to try squeeze out a cold and, perhaps snowy outcome. (The latter being as longs as High Pressure migrates far enough to the North and North-West of the UK to prevent the weather from being too dry/settled and allow Atlantic Lows to slide under). The snow train can then pull into the platform of the UK from the North and East. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4808721

Yep, despite being somewhat further North and West, I can’t help but feel things feel further ahead that what would normally be the case at this time of year. Aside from first part of January being wet here, it’s been dry a lot of the time and I remember one or two others saying this month, especially, being one of the quietest Februaries they have ever experienced. So definitely quite unusual. The early start to Spring/Spring-like weather has been (for me) welcoming. I would have to agree there is going to be a lot of problems should the next few months or so be absent of much precipitation. I mean, I would love a dry(ish) Summer - the rain coming in the form of heavy thunderstorms to try making up for any drought conditions that occur. From a personal view, as interesting as it was, wouldn’t want a repeat of last Summer where it became a touch too hot and dry at times.

Even though it was fairly brief, I remember the first part of February 2012 delivering a pretty good dumping of snow here as a front from the West ran into some colder air further East. I think the further West you were, the more that the front was of rain (though there was a bit of back-edge light rain/drizzle from the front here. Mostly got away with it and ended up with around 10cm of wet snow).

Probably varying where you are in the UK, but although maybe not a particularly stand out period, February 2010 was quite a cold one overall. There was a possibility of that February being even more memorable with a chance of very bitter Easterly winds, which didn’t quite happen. Still was, however, a chilly and, at times (especially in this part), wintry month. Due to this Winter lacking in snow, except for a few odd small dustings (so better than nothing), am kinda hoping for something wintry in March and also some mild, bright, sunny, Spring spells. Which, to be fair, it has felt quite Spring-like on and off throughout this February. A number of dry days with some sunshine at times. Today in particular felt pleasant in the sun. Even some of the daffodils have been recently flowering. Seems a little early this year.

Hi Rain, While I admit that John, Mushy, Bluearmy etc tend to have more insight on these anomaly charts compared to my experience of them, it looks to me like they want to establish a High/Block over Iceland with a slack upper flow over the UK. Interesting to see as it would look like leading to colder conditions for the UK. A fairly nice surprise to see despite a few days break from surveying the models (but then I guess the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event signposted this as a possibility). While some will be looking forward to some warmer weather of Spring, this does provide a chance to try squeeze out a cold and, perhaps snowy outcome. (The latter being as longs as High Pressure migrates far enough to the North and North-West of the UK to prevent the weather from being too dry/settled and allow Atlantic Lows to slide under). The snow train can then pull into the platform of the UK from the North and East.

Aside from the last few posts, have noticed the moderators have had to use their huge vacuums to hoover up some unsuitable posts in here within the last few hours. Therefore, let’s play a game. To stand a chance of winning, you need to make sure your post… 1. is about the models. 2. is a bit more than just a chart, or an odd word or two. I know a few like to do this for effect (though could be confusing for new members). 3. isn’t rude and insulting, while accepting we all have our own opinions and preferences. Be respectful about it, however. 4. doesn’t harass other members. Your prizes will be: a post that remains in the thread (is that exciting! ) and… the white stuff! Trust me, this is one game you don’t wanna lose.

What a shame Who ever has done it shall have no snow (or what ever other type of weather they desire) until they sort it out!

Can hope it won’t turn out to be as cloudy/grey as it seems, otherwise it’s just the case of unplugging the sunshine shield again. Although I worry that the sunshine shield makers will have probably glued the plug in with extra strong superglue to make it harder to take out.

With a good amount of sunny weather here recently, it’s as though March and April have kidnapped February and held it captive somewhere. Now some very different weather conditions could easily pop up within the next 2 to 3 weeks, but I do wonder wether the models will be able to locate the missing month fairly soon before March and April finish off February for good!

Seem to kinda have a love and hate relationship about Winter at the moment but, quite frankly, am secretly glad February has now come and flushed January down the loo. Mind, January here did bring more in the way of drier weather with some sunny days beyond mid-month plus the odd little bit of snow. Some of the sunny days making it feel a little Spring-y at times. At least made the last 2 weeks of the month feel rather bearable. For those who’ve been having some Winter Blues, or just had enough of the season (even though a proper good fall of snow would still be brill), just knowing it’s one month closer to Spring brings a bit of joy. True it’s a bit of a wait to March still, where some will end up seeing further relief. But the hour increase of longer light in the afternoons, the mornings getting a little lighter earlier and the higher position of the sun allowing stronger light to reach the surface now does make Spring feel like it’s getting within reaching distance. Nevertheless, some could argue that February, more so across the South/far South of the UK, can partly feel like a Spring month, especially later into the month and with the right weather. Incredible what happened in the last third of February 2019, for instance! Just nice at the moment to see the snowdrops out also. Not too long when the daffodils unravel their dazzling displays of white, yellow and oranges. A slow process it’s feeling this year (and the following part won’t apply to all, especially those not wanting Winter to let go yet) but are getting there in terms of Spring and warmer weather. Just a few more weeks to get through really. Winter can throw further surprises throughout February and March, although have at least passed the toughest part of the season, particularly in terms of sunlight levels and length of daylight.

As we get very close to approaching the following month of February, let’s do, as usual, ensure to keep things friendly in here please and respect other people’s opinions and stuff. The dungeon is always open ready to throw the mischief-makers into. Don’t be one of them. Any off topic or rotten posts do feel free to report them to the mods and admins, and we’ll get on the case as soon as we possibly can. Cheers all! While I haven’t looked at the models in a while, I do hope February will bring us a good variety of weather for various weather fans down to snow, windstorms, calm sunny and/or frosty days and, some, a spot of early(ish) Spring warmth.