BlueHedgehog074

Cloudy here too with a carpet of Altostratus-like cloud about. Some clearer skies to my North-East. Fairly mild, also, with the temperature around 11*C. Humidity: 94% Pressure: 1019 hPa and rising.

Thanks for sharing this, Dancerwithwings. Might have to check that out at some point when there's time. And colder Winters, eh? That would (personally) be grand. Did turn out to be a pretty decent day in the end. Some periods where the army of clouds tried to have a fight with the sky, otherwise been warm, bright and dry. Temperature currently around 20*C with a maximum of 22.7*C.

Edit: seem to have spoke a bit too soon. Lot more cloud deciding to gang up on Solihull.

Not sure what it was like here earlier this morning, but there's some decent sunny spells around at the moment. Turning out to be a much better day than I expected... So far! Temperature a respectable 20*C.

Wouldn't be surprised if the tornado was directly over Connor's house! A more promising start this morning, though, with some decent sunny spells. Looks like cloudzilla is taking a rest. 16*C at the moment.

Really hope the snow for next Tuesday doesn't get downgraded. Would be the first time I would ever see the white stuff fall in Summer!

Hopefully tomorrow will be better (but now I've said that it'll probably be worse...). Although it's been pretty cloudy so far today, (there is however some brighter patches around) this is still much more preferable compared to very cool, rainy and windy conditions. Reasonably warm as well with the temperature just touching 20*C.

The ECMWF/GFS 6 to 10 day 500mb chart offers similar ideas to the NOAA anomaly charts - troughing dominating to the West or North West of the UK and High Pressure dominating to the East/South-East of the UK giving an impression of a general North-West to South-East split. The GFS version to the right in the chart below would offer the best of the warmest and less unsettled conditions towards the South-East at times where it is a bit more relaxed with the trough to the North-West of the UK and has higher than average heights more influential towards South-Eastern UK. Plus, with the 500mb from the South-West over the UK, could be warm at times. Even Northern areas could perhaps see some less cooler and brighter weather a times between weather systems. The ECMWF version (to left in chart below) looks a bit more unsettled-looking with that trough to the North-West of the UK being more influential. The South-East again perhaps seeing the best of any less unsettled conditions and in the sun, could still be quite warm at times. One other thing to note about the chart is the GFS version has a big dip in the upper flow to the West of Spain the in Southern Atlantic, which may mean for any Lows that drop further South in the Atlantic, could perhaps lead to more of a warmer Southerly flow towards the UK eventually (although that is sort of guesswork). Another thing to mention is, interestingly, the 00Z GEM this morning is continuing with a warm plume style setup towards the end of it's run with Low Pressure in the Atlantic dropping to the South-West of the UK and High Pressure getting dragged up to the North-East of the UK towards Scandinavia. This again likely to lead to some thundery breakdowns, especially towards the South and East, as the South-Western UK Low runs into the warm air over the UK. Unless other models and the anomaly charts start supporting GEM's plume ideas, it would be open for questions for now.

I agree with the others above. A lot of thought has been put into that analysis and the part about the contrast between the surface and upper heights was interesting. Good job! (With the amount of knowledgeable posts, handy input and entertaining content from numerous members on here, would love to give more of you an award really). Just quickly looking through the main models and it does look as though the changeable conditions will continue with those troughs/low pressure systems to the West/North-West of the UK bringing some rain, showers and windy spells to places at times. And South/South-Eastern areas seeing the best of the less unsettled and brightest, warmest conditions with higher pressure looking to be more in control in those parts at times.

Indeed. To get a low of 3 or 4*C in Summer is kind of unusual (although I suspect there's been a few odd times in the past when it's happened).

Yeah that's probably why to be honest. Been quite a few insects around, especially the buzzing ones.Although it's not been too warm (rather cool when the sun's been hiding behind clouds) and also a bit windy, today has been a definite improvement from the Autumnal conditions of the last few days. Maxed out around 20*C here, too - 20.6*C to be precise - and is now bang on 20*C (he hee).

Feels more like Summer this afternoon (for now), and the bees are buzzing! Temperature currently nearing 18*C.

Will go for 16*C please. On the last day of the month I feel the UK will get the hottest ever plume followed by the coldest ever August Northerly. 850 hPa temperatures of -10*C from the North will quickly undercut the 25*C 850 hPa temperatures swamping the whole UK with dangerously heavy back-edge snow accompanying the super severe UK-sized thunderstorm. (Something that would only happen in a dream off course).

Was hoping to try and go out for a bike ride today, but it looks like this wet weather has foiled my mission. Seems to have remembered it's a Sunday today. Not particularly warm either with the temperature a touch below 14*C. Weather rating: 3/10.

Only just noticed it, but ECMWF's new website looks pretty sick! http://www.ecmwf.int/ Older version: http://old.ecmwf.int/

Same. Look like the rain has been terminated! Still, the plants must have been happy for that wet weather. Some lovely looking clouds, though, in the distance out West/South-West currently.

Does feel as though it's been getting colder later on in the day. Around 12*C here, so not too far off from yours. Funnily enough, this likely would have been the type of set-up to produce sleet and snow in Winter.

The shorter range version of the NOAA 500mb anomaly chart (6 to 10 day one) also doesn't show much of an improvement at all for widespread very warm and settled conditions with a fairly Westerly drivern pattern. The 500mb flow indicates no real signs of ridging over the UK. The lower than average heights to the West of the UK, however, don't look mega low, so troughing to the West or North-West of the UK would probably be fairly slack at times, but close enough to influence the British Isles with further unsettled and cool weather - particularly for the North of the UK. The anomalies look a touch less lower towards the South of the UK and into Southern Mainland Europe, which could mean Southern areas seeing a little less in the way of disturbed weather at times, and perhaps in any decent sunny spells, could be fairly warm at times what with a South-Westerly 500mb flow over the UK. But since it's not a long-drawn upper South-Westerly flow, even for the South, it probably won't be all that warm at times (except perhaps for again in any reasonable sunny spells). Would seem that even if High Pressure does build over and/or towards our East for late next week (some models of which still support it) possibly with that plume-like setup, it still looks as though it wouldn't indeed last long at all. Just hope for those of you wanting something more warmer and settled, this being more so for those of you to the North desperate for something much more warmer and settled that some improvements will start to arise. Otherwise just have to hope the possible pressure build to the East of the UK towards next week (if it doesn't get stamped-out completely) becomes more prolonged.

Been a bit of a disappointing day really. Not terribly keen on rainy weather really unless it chucks it down. As such, would have loved today's rain to have been a proper spell of heavy stuff rather than the light to moderate stuff it has been. Having the Low just a little further North would, I imagine, have helped with this and brought that heavy precipitation to the South over the region. The grass and plants needed it I guess, though, and tomorrow should definitely be a less unsettled day with more in the way of brighter weather, albeit perhaps with a few odd showers around too.

The GFS 12Z continues the sort of theme it had on the previous run with High Pressure building over to the East of the UK drawing up some warmer air from the South. The Eastern UK High Pressure, though, does break down from the South-West with Low Pressure taking over. And with some of that warm air trying to get into Southern areas before hand, it could introduce some thundery weather at first: I think trends will be the most important thing at the end of the day, but considering the GEFS ensembles were suggesting pressure to lower again after a few days, it is certainly possible that any build of pressure over the UK could certainly just be transient. For the new few days, though, and it looks like a mixture of bands of rain accompanied by some gusty weather with periods of brighter and showery weather, particularly for the North, between rain bands. The coolest and most unsettled conditions look to be towards Northern UK with the odd ridge to the South of the UK at times keeping the weather in that part a bit less unsettled and brighter. Although even these parts will see some rain at times, especially this Sunday. I suppose some of the plants have been dying to have a drink, really, and give those to the South who enjoy that type of weather more rain to look forward to. Winds will also briefly turn more Northerly or North-Westerly at the beginning of next week as areas of Low Pressure to the West of the UK transfer to our East. Some parts to the North of the UK perhaps reaching just low mid-teen temperatures at best towards the end of this weekend and into the start of next week thanks to the cool Northerly winds. A few of these nights, most especially to the North, are likely to be on the rather chilly side, too.

I don't really want to over-hype the weather possibilities for the end of next week, but looking at some of the various operational models and some of the ensembles around the 168 to 240 hour range and I feel there is some reasonable support to see some pressure rises over the UK and perhaps to our East/North-East into the continent: Just looking at the 06Z GFS first from 192 hours and it shows quite a decent build of pressure over the UK from our South-West in the Atlantic. This of which then migrates to the East of the UK into the continent drawing up some warm and bright weather over the UK from the South. Eastern and South-Eastern UK areas, in particular, would probably benefit the most from the sunniest and warmest conditions: The 00Z ECMWF (using the 168 to 216 hour time-frames) showing similar ideas with High Pressure extending its ridging North-Eastwards over the UK from the South-West. This, again, migrating to the East of the UK. The High Pressure is, however, not as strong as that on the GFS - the pressure looks a bit messier and the heights at the 500mb level are a little less strong. Nevertheless, it would lead to some settled and warm conditions for places, particularly towards the Eastern part of the British Isles. Support also from the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean to see pressure building over and to the East of the UK from our South-West. Perhaps not a super strong signal as, just like on the ECMWF operational run above, the pressure doesn't seem too strong. but I think still enough of a signal to suggest areas of High Pressure will become increasingly influential around the British Isles area towards the beginning of August: The 00Z GEM (using the 168 to 216 hour time-frames again), though, is one of the less impressive operational models for a build of High Pressure over the UK. Stubborn troughing to the East of the UK towards Scandinavia prevents any meaningful build of pressure over the island and to our East and any true Azores High becomes locked away to our South-West in the Southern Atlantic. One thing that does seem evident, though, is despite the corridor of Atlantic Lows to our West and the troughing to our East, there is at least a small narrow belt of weak High Pressure over Western UK, together with a small ridge over South-Western UK, to prevent any real washout conditions occurring. Plus, South-Western areas would probably remain mostly dry and settled. And I think in that respect, it's bears a few odd similarities to the above models: And while it is at 180 hours, the NAVGEM looks as though it would almost head in the same direction. Have, nevertheless, doodled on the chart to show the kind of things that would need to happen to draw the High Pressure to the South-West of us over, and to the East of, the UK. The black arrow would show that troughing would need to dig far enough South in the mid-Atlantic to help encourage heights and pressure building North-Eastwards over the UK and into Mainland Europe. Additionally, the blue arrow, along with the blue circle (showing the trough of Lows to our North/North-East) would also need to clear far enough East towards Eastern (or perhaps central) Scandinavia, to enable the Azores High to fight its way North-East over the UK - indicated by the green arrow. That Scandinavian troughing can be a bit of a sneaky devil sometimes when it extends its low heights towards the UK plotting its revenge against any Azores High Pressure systems that dare enter the British Isles... Another ideal situation would be simply seeing Lows out West linking up towards Lows to our East and orientating themselves in a South-West to North-East direction to our North helped by a Northerly tracking Jet Stream to give room for High Pressure to develop over the UK and into mainland Europe. Taking a look at the 06Z GEFS air pressure ensembles for both London and Aberdeenshire, and signs for pressure rises look evident towards the end of the month from around the 31st July onwards. And though the lines become more scattered towards the end of both the graphs, there are perhaps enough hints that pressure may then start lowering somewhat from 4th August, which may mean this might not be a long lasting spell of possible High Pressure dominated conditions. More of a transient affair, perhaps. Despite being in deep Fantasy Island, the 06Z GFS operational model had showed the Atlantic and a more Westerly dominated pattern breaking through nearer to the end of its run. Having said that, even if this possible spell of more settled conditions doesn't last long, the ensembles don't generally show pressure dropping to especially low values, particularly for the London area. But it could mean more of a general South to North split could re-establish. Less unsettled to the South and more changeable to the North. Since it's far away, I wouldn't get too worried about it yet if you're wanting a long-lasting very warm and settled spell as that could easily change, plus I am just basing that on one set of GEFS ensembles: Another thing to mention about those GEFS graph ensembles is the GFS operational model (green line) is more at the higher end of those ensembles during that pressure rise at the beginning of August, which may mean the GFS operational model is possibility slightly over-doing the build of pressure for that period. One other thing to note about these GEFS air pressure ensembles is that, for the Aberdeenshire graph in particular, some of the ensembles members go for a notable dip in pressure between the 29th July and 1st August. This is highlighted well in the GEFS postage stamps below (for 168 hours) where a few of the ensemble members (perturbations) showing Low Pressure to the North or North-East affecting Northern parts: This possibly explaining why some ensembles members go for a brief dip between in pressure within that period. Since the GEFS ensemble mean, the control and the main GFS operational don't go for much of a dip in air pressure in that period, it is possible that some ensembles members are just exaggerating the dominance of Low Pressure, most particularly for Northern UK, in that space of time. Lastly, while the ECMWF/GFS 6 to 10 day mean chart below doesn't look all that encouraging for major height rises over the UK - the GFS one (to the right in the below image) in fact looks quite Westerly dominated - I think it would still be fair to say it doesn't look like any real washout conditions are likely either. Especially for the South. None of them show any deep troughs influencing the UK - the anomalies over the UK area look neutral. The ECMWF version does at least show a 'bump' in the 500mb flow over the UK with ridging quite likely. More of a warmer looking chart as well with the upper flow from the South-West influencing the UK. Edit: only just noticed the above posts, particularly that from John Holmes, who to be fair has a lot of experience using these types of mean charts, and I think his interpretation is more fairer with the idea of the South seeing the best of the less unsettled conditions and the North being more influence by areas of Lows to the North. I think it will be quite fascinating seeing the latest NOAA 6 to 10 day anomaly chart update tonight to see whether it shows a clearer signal for heights rises and pressure building towards the North-Western Europe area. While there are still some good reasons to be cautious of possible build of High Pressure towards our part of the world next week along with possible less disturbed and more widespread settled spell developing (especially for the South and East), I feel it's possible that Glacier Point may just be on to something when he suggested the possibility of a settled and warmer spell occurring... Hopefully, for the warm and settled weather enthusiasts, this is the sort of direction some of the models keep heading in and that the support for it increases further. (Xtra info: just a quick look at the latest GFS run and it seems to be heading in a similar direction to the previous run, although the Low(s) over Northern may need watching...)

Will be amusing to see which model/forecast gets tomorrow's rain closest to the mark. I think the GFS is possibly over-doing it a bit, though. I suppose it's just like with thundery weather sometimes - even just 12 hours away before the main event, differences in the intensity and distribution of storms on each of the models and forecasts can be striking!

Anytime Frosty. While I'm at it, will do a quickish summary of the next 2 days using charts from the latest GFS run: Friday - tomorrow will see a small surface Low Pressure system to the South of the UK (as shown on the 06Z GFS 500hPa and Sea Level Pressure chart below) track North-Eastwards bringing a spell of heavy rain over Southern UK from the West. Some of this could be quite torrential at times, particularly towards the far South, where the GFS UK Precipitation chart shows some high accumulative rainfall in that area. Perhaps also accompanied by the odd rumble of thunder. Further North towards North-Western areas of the British Isles and conditions look to be more showery. It will feel quite cool under the rain to the South with temperatures into the low and mid teens. Generally a little warmer over Northern UK and Ireland with temperatures in the mid to high teens, although Northern Scotland could see similar temperatures to those to the South of the UK. Friday Night and Saturday Morning - as the Southern UK Low Pressure system pulls away into the North-Sea, it will pull in a breezy North-Easterly flow over the UK. The rain becoming increasingly confined to South-Eastern areas. Drier everywhere else with a chilly night in store for North-Western British Isles - temperatures getting into single digits in those parts, especially under clearer skies. Perhaps even chilly enough for a slight frost over hilly parts of Western Scotland. Milder to the South and South-East of the UK, particularly under the cloud and rain. Saturday - it's game over for the rain to the East of the UK and it's now playing hide-and-seek in the North-Sea! It should generally be more of a calmer day as a ridge of High Pressure builds over the South-West/South of the UK. Some showers are possible, though, with the worst of these looking to be towards the North-East of the UK. But that ridge of High Pressure to the South-West of the UK should help to keep the weather mostly dry and bright in that area. With the pressure looking quite slack, it shouldn't be too windy, especially inland. Compared to Friday, Southern parts should see a warmer day. Temperatures perhaps reaching the 20*C mark in the far South, in particular in sunny spells. Cooler the further North of the UK you go with temperatures into the low-teens in Northern Scotland. Later on in the day, an Atlantic Low to the West will bring some wind and rain East into Ireland. Drier and chillier elsewhere, especially over Northern UK. Temperatures perhaps getting close to freezing in some parts of Eastern Scotland. Quite incredible, really, should the GFS be projecting those temperatures correctly. Milder over Ireland, more so towards the South of the country, and also towards the South-Western UK. Low to mid-teen temperatures possible in the far South-West. Overall, some rather action-packed weather for places. Nothing super-warm likely (if it's the type of weather you're after) and the nights, this being more the case the further North you are, will be chilly.

What's going on here? Sunny on a Sunday? It's a miracle! Really great weather, nonetheless, with the Solihull Cloud Shield keeping all the clouds away. Temperature nearing 20*C. Hopefully, though, that Shropshire Cloud Shield will re-power up again.

Does look a little odd that GFS 06Z towards the end. It's probably over-amplifying the pattern in the Atlantic. Though not looking particularly encouraging on the longer range (8 to 14 day) 500mb NOAA anomaly chart for widespread very warm and settled conditions with a continued Scandinavian trough influence over the UK and some blocking to our West/North-West towards Greenland. Having said that, despite the cool-looking pattern over the UK, in any decent sunny spells, it could feel quite warm at times, most especially towards the South. But hopefully, though, things will change for the better (especially for those of you to the North wanting to see much warmer and less disturbed weather). Personally would love to see one or two proper very warm sunny spells and further plume events before Summer goes into hiding. Enough time for this to happen still. One of those Summer's really that could do with a hot sting in its tail!