BlueHedgehog074

I'll see what I can do, Bishop. Now if I can just remember where that darn plug is...

Been outside with the back light on and if I've observed it correctly, there's some little sleety bits mixed in with the rain just now. Temperature around 3.5*C with a Dewpoint around 2.5*C (but slowly dropping). Would be nice to see it turn into full on snow, but even sleety rain is a bit more exciting than just 100% pure rain (lol).

Perhaps wouldn't rule out the possibility of some back edge sleet/wet snow to the precipitation tomorrow morning as slightly colder air tries to tuck in behind the rain and showery precipitation. Otherwise a chance for a wintry mix of showers of rain, sleet, hail and snow to follow later on tomorrow and into Friday as Weather09 talked about. A showery, chilly, North-Westerly to Northerly flow to take over. The Dewpoints look look to be generally below freezing throughout much of Thursday (late morning onwards) and Friday according to the 12Z GFS accompanied by 850 hPa temperatures around -4*C to -7*C which should be supportive for showers to be wintry - even at lower levels.

Just a fairly quick red line summary of the models for the next few days - looks as though some areas of ridging will be developing in the mid-Atlantic this week with another area of High Pressure around Greenland accompanied by some fairly modest upper heights there. All thanks to ridging of High Pressure moving Eastwards out of Canada/Eastern Canada to help form some blocking opportunities in the Atlantic. The Polar Vortex being unable to holiday at its favourite place to our North-West. This allowing troughs of Lows to drop down from the North-West ushering the UK in a cool to cold flow between the West and North at times with lowest of upper heights concentrated towards the Scandinavian area. Chances for 850 hPa temperatures of around -5*C or a little colder, especially towards Northern UK, to get pulled South and Eastwards towards us. And with thicknesses over the UK looking to be quite low at times some of the showers and longer spells of precipitation could have a wintry flavour at times. This more so over Northern UK parts. Perhaps something wintry for Southern parts as well, though it does look very marginal for this part at times with a risk of the -5*C 850 hPa temperatures getting mixed out from the West at times. However, under heavy sustainable precipitation, this could allow evaporative cooling to take place and help drag the sleet and snow line down to lower levels. Not entirely impossible to get sleet and snow under 850 hPa temperatures a little warmer than -5*C - even if it's Atlantic sourced (suppose as longs other factors are favourable such as Deepoints being around/close to freezing - known it to happen in the past. But idealy 850 hPa temperatures do need to be at least around -6*C or lower for low level snow from the Atlantic, unless it's an Atlantic front trying to run into cold air over the UK). Suspect high ground Northern areas could get some quite big dumpings of the white stuff. Doesn't look as though there will be any major washout conditions and between showers/wintry weather, could be some bright, sunnier, periods with chance of some frosts overnight. Maybe then a possibility for the mid-Atlantic High to get knocked over the UK towards end of the week as Lows coming East out of Canada/Northern America try to push up against the Atlantic and/or Greenland ridging. Although the models do continue to be somewhat unclear about the actual pathway they could lead us to near the end of this week and beyond. But having that ridge out West getting drawn over to us is quite a possibility. The NOAA anomaly charts show that kind of idea being a possibility with gradual progression Eastwards of the pattern. Nothing is always terribly certain though at those sort of ranges. Hopefully, for those really wanting to see a flake or two (or more) fall from the sky, the weather will give some surprises for you.

The NOAA anomaly charts continue to to unravel a box a scrumptious oreos for the cold weather enthusiasts. Supports what numerous operational models show with a chance for some chilly conditions to filter down from the North-West/North at times next week and perhaps into the week after. Red dotted lines on chart show clear signs for heights to be above average to our West and North-West in the mid Northern Atlantic - perhaps significantly so around Southern Greenland - with the green contour line showing a big kink in the upper flow around the Atlantic/Greenland sector. Atlantic and Greenland blocking a real possibility at times. And the dip in the upper flow to our East over Europe accompanied by lower than average heights (blue dotted lines) allowing Scandinavian and European troughing to dominate to our East, which could help keep the UK cold and chilly. A scenario essentially where blocking to our West/North-West allowing toughs to drop down from our North/North-West to our East and, with heights also looking to be lower than average to our South-West towards the Azores, there could perhaps be opportunities for Lows in that area to slide underneath the Western/North-Western UK blocking and merge with the Scandinavian/European troughing. While the heights to our East don't look desperately low, the charts don't seem keen on any ridging over mainland Europe. Therefore, I suspect one or two of the operational models today have probably overdone how much these Azores Lows try to pump ridging to the East of the Azores/Tropical Low(s) North-East over Europe meaning a milder flow from the South-West is probably unlikely. And I think even should a ridge get drawn North-Eastwards into Europe and try to bring milder air Northwards through UK, it would probably just be temporary. This is what the 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day charts had showed yesterday (I think Man With Beard had posted them as well): And tonight, there's not really much change: ...which probably means the NOAA is quite confident with the evolution going ahead. In fact, there recent Prognostic Discussion suggests that their confidence is 'above average' http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html While things could still change, the signs for a cooler or colder spell of weather looks encouraging. The pattern not changing much on both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day NOAA charts, so the likely chillier spell next week could last for a fair while. Looks like it would be more than just a standard 2 to 3 day Northerly toppler, too. The blue and purple cold killing machine (Polar Vortex) could have a hard time arising from its gravestone to our North-West. I think as one or two people mentioned at some point, wouldn't worry much about the details yet as it's the overall pattern that's the most important. (Don't intend for this post to come across as ramp (so apologies if it does), but is just personally how I see it. I note, though, from Mushymanrob about the suggestion of deep cold being unlikely - at least for now. I suppose the kink in the upper flow in the Atlantic would perhaps have to be a little bit more pronounced on the above charts. Plus, the long-drawn North-Westerly upper flow the anomaly charts show over the UK, would probably have to be more from the North or North-East to help squeeze some really bitter air down South-Westwards towards us from the Scandinavian or Siberia area). Still nice to see, however, for those of you wanting something chillier and perhaps wintrier.

Essentially, the models do show that there is going to be a big wrestling match between the Scandinavian/Russian High Pressure systems and the Atlantic Trough. The High Pressure developing to our North-East has decided it has had enough of the Atlantic Low Pressure systems and that evil Greenland Vortex causing carnage in the UK delivering problematic floods to places. And so, the Scandinavian/Russian block is going to punish the Atlantic Lows by squashing them to death and force them to track South-East into Europe. There is also currently a lot of warm air getting pumped Northwards towards the Arctic area (Warm Air Advection) as shown from the example in the 06Z GFS below. The arrows showing the warm air getting drawn vertically Northwards towards the Arctic thanks to pronounced amplification of high heights extending from mainland Europe towards Northern Russia. Some of this will help to choke the Vortex around Greenland area and weaken it. ...and in some ways will allow some of the ridging from the blocking to our North-East to back further West to our North towards Greenland or Iceland (see next chart below). The below example from the 00Z ECMWF, using the European view of the model, shows the sort of pattern that could result towards next week. Some areas of High Latitude Blocking, with the strongest areas of heights towards the Russia area, putting a spell on the Atlantic Lows and set up possibilities of these disrupting against the North-Eastern UK blocking. While there is some variations of the exact track the Lows from the West will take and how far North or South they could edge themselves through the UK, I think the general pattern is to see a stream of Lows filter in from the West/North-West and extend themselves South-Eastwards into mainland Europe across the UK at times. And as some of the people such as Phil, mentioned, some very cold 850hPa air out to our North-East could get pulled Westwards towards us at times. Though it does seem as though that Eastern/North-Eastern areas of the UK (for now) could see the best chances of some of this cold upper air. North-Eastern areas probably the most likely as well to see the best of any Easterly influences from the Russia/Scandinavian block. But all of this will depend on the exact positioning of the pressure/upper height patterns closer to the time itself. Additionally, the chart above illustrates how the areas of Vortex to our North-West over Greenland becomes terminated for a while as some fairly modest heights settle above to our North disrupting some of the very low heights in that area. Sorry Greenland Vortex, your mission is aborted. Further on towards the end of next week, and it has seemed to be the case that the Atlantic Lows out West could become very frustrated with our block to our North-East - angrier Lows taking the spot light over and to the North-West of the UK. Examples from the GEM, GFS and ECMWF below: And, below, the 12Z GFS's take for that period. (The Atlantic Low a bit more deeper and rounder compared to the other examples above and generally positioned a little further West). It's something I think Bluearmy talked about yesterday regarding a more Atlantic influence taking over eventually, with the blocking to our North-East getting stamped-out. It's been a trend on some models as well to see some of the Lows beyond the second half of next week to become accompanied by much lower 500mb heights with the risk of a more Vortex-y influence affecting the UK. (may sadly mean more wind and rain for parts that need no more). But its not infeasible that with enough disruption and undercutting to the Low (especially should heights to our North be underdone at that time-frame) that some frontal snowfall could occur upon approach of this possible deep Low out West. Particularly if the Low runs up against enough cold air over, or to the East of, the UK. Despite some uncertainties in the nearer time-frame (mostly the details really), how much this possible deeper Low behaves could further affect what sort of pattern occurs afterwards. Personally, feel as though that Low will probably just push through the UK/Northern UK or, if it gets really deep, perhaps just get stuck out to our North-West for a while. Would be ideal to see some of those deep Lows later next week losing their ball-shape so it could become more squashed and undercut/disrupt better. Won't go to much detail, but some operational models towards deep FI have shown possibilities for some heights to develop around Greenland, which may lead to further possibilities of some cooler or colder weather further down the line. Would kinda relate to the thoughts of those on here such as Glacier Point, who hint at some blocking possibilities to our North-West. But I suppose for those wanting to see a colder spell (in case the possibilities in these next few days or so don't deliver, more so if you're towards the South of the UK), then let's hope any ideas of the North Atlantic Oscillation going negative later on into January doesn't become something that's too Western based. Could mean the coldest air ends up digging South a bit too far West/North-West in the Atlantic with the cold weather fans in the UK being on the wrong side of it (unless perhaps you're over Northern UK). Too far out, however, to worry about at the moment. While it does look as though unsettled conditions could continue, there is always the chance of some drier spells between the likely West/North-West to South-East tracking Lows next week. For those fed up with the flooding issues, it might be the best that could be achieved for now, otherwise it's just hoping somehow there could be more influence from ridging either from the block to our North-East or the Azores High to our South-West. Seems, however, unlikely for the time being. Nevertheless, there is still some doubts regarding the developments for next week. A block to our North East looks likely: and a chance for Lows to undercut that block from our West with a Southerly tracking Jet Stream. Looks as though that while it's uncertain as to how cold next week may get, it should at least be cooler than it has been recently (except for today where the UK is now under a cool Westerly flow). The chance of colder weather increasing the further North-East in the UK you are. But.. can the Lows out West disrupt enough and reach Europe without filling out too quickly? Can they be pushed far enough South to the South of the UK and bring more areas a chilly Easterly feed? And will this mean wintrier possibilities further South? And even if not, can enough devastation to the Vortex be maintained to bring a bigger smile to the cold fans' faces towards mid-January? And will a UK High Pressure system come to the rescue for flooded areas at some point? Some question to be answered. But hopefully if this wet weather has tested your patience too much, that the rain train service will eventually come off the track. Also like to wish all of you a Happy New Year and may the weather bring lots of surprises for us all to look forward to - especially of the whiter and/or drier kind.

ECMWF used as an example but, essentially, the models continue to play about with a block to our North East. (for the sake of those to the North-West, though, seeing the block trying to extend far enough South and West over UK/Northern UK would be welcomed, I'd imagine. But while the trends are to see that Russian or Scandinavian blocking, there is some uncertainty regarding how well the Atlantic Lows could disrupt/undercut against the block, or also how far South they could track through the UK. How far North or South. How far North or South they track towards the UK could mean the difference between a flow from the East or a flow from the West. Although both scenarios do have the possibilities of producing some chilly weather at times).

It appears Christmas Eve has put the GFS in a festive mood for the cold and snow weather fans with the possible Scandinavian block next week wanting to beat up the devious Atlantic and its buddy, the Greenland Vortex! While I've not seen the 00Z GFS this morning, both the 06Z and 12Z GFS runs seem to have stuck with similar ideas with Low Pressure systems from the main Atlantic Trough being squeezed South-East into the nearby continent against the blocking over Scandinavia. Some chilly flows from the South-East/East occuring at times as a result. Even though the Atlantic does take over towards the end of the 12Z GFS run with the Scandinavian block knocked further East, the Jet Stream seems to remain on quite a Southerly track to keep us on the colder side of the weather at times. Nice as it is to see though (if you enjoy wintry and/or chilly weather), going to remain cautious of its outcome for the time being. Other models, such as the GEM and ECMWF, opposing the GFS's Southerly tracking Low Pressure ideas. But it does show what can happen should be possible blocking to our North-East next week be under-estimated. I suppose some of the key aspects that would help towards GFS's stubborn Scandinavian blocking ideas is have the High to our East/North-East being positioned and orientated favourably to send as much vertical Warm Air Advection as possible Northwards towards the Arctic area while trying to encourage some of very Low heights from the Greenland Vortex to get drawn South-Eastwards towards the UK with the Jet Stream diving to our South towards Southern Europe. Important, too, to get the negative tilt to the Lows out West in the Atlantic (without these being too ball-shaped) to encourage them to slide to our South against blocking to our North-East/East. All of this then helping to provide some chilly Easterlies for the UK (if it's something you still want) on the Northern flank of Lows. Though would also additionally need some cold air to filter Westwards into the UK on the Southern flank of of blocking High between our North or East. There has been mentions of the possibilities of a 2 Wave pattern - essentially 2 upper ridges of high heights - that could help bust up the Vortex and/or displace the Vortex pieces (which may or may not help out for cold weather prospects for the UK). Possibly then leading some kind of Stratospheric warming events. Would still kinda fit in with some of the weather forecasters' ideas of more in the way colder weather developing into the 2nd part of Winter. Though would still have to rely on getting enough disruption to the Vortex, especially the Greenland one, to unlock the door to some of the colder weather possibilities. In the meantime, looks as though there will be a continuation of unsettled and windy weather, particularly for the North-West, from Lows in the Atlantic with ridging persisting to our South-East/East over Europe. This drawing in a flow between the South and West at times with Southern areas seeing the best of the mildest conditions. Then quite possible that some of the ridging to our East will get drawn far enough North into Scandinavia, though some question marks as to how well it can fight off the Atlantic. Admittedly, for those of you in the North-West in particular, having High Pressure setting up over the UK (or at least over Northern UK parts) would be ideal. Still, for those of you who like cold weather, the GFS has certainly been providing an early Christmas present for you. Would also like to wish all of you on Netweather a... Edit: and a Happy New Year. May it be good.

The ECMWF is just cranky because it found out Santa had put him down on the naughty list. I mean really Santa, what's the matter with you? Why wasn't that model on the good boy list, huh? The cold weather fans could have had the ECMWF run of their dreams tonight had you done so. That poor, poor, model. You better put the ECMWF back on the good boy list tomorrow morning. Or else! I mean, honestly... putting one of the best performing models down onto the naughty list is seriously uncool bro.

Loved this December 17th 2010 chart purely for the extremely heavy back-edge showery snow it produced. This was when the blocking High Pressure system over Greenland forced a Low from the Arctic to drop Southwards through Eastern UK bringing much colder weather conditions with it. Was breaking up from College on that day for Christmas and remember their were showers in the morning falling as rain with the flow backing from the West. Then, in the early afternoon, noticed the skies suddenly turned quite dark and stormy. The radar also showed an area of precipitation intensifying greatly to my North-West. Had assumed this was in response to much colder 850 hPa temperatures undercutting from the North along with lowering 500mb heights increasing instability in the atmosphere to really pep up the precipitation. The flow backed increasingly from the North and sleet was falling outside. Soon, this was followed by full on snow that went absolutely insane for about 5 to 10 minutes: white-out conditions with dense 50p snowflakes. It managed to leave a covering on the ground as the snow made a hasty exit Southwards/South-Eastwards. Dry, clear, night followed. @phil nw. @Daniel* @Evening thunder @Nick L @Costa Del Fal @Thunderbolt_ @I remember Atlantic 252 @William Grimsley @conor123

Will go for 4.7*C, please - a fairly mild start for the mild and warm weather enthusiasts. Then some kind of wave-breaking stratospheric warming event to discharge the cold weather enthusiasts from that overcrowded mild weather jail.

That would be incredible should it happen. Edit: Looks as though my 5.1*C CET guess this month could turn out to be really low.

That's the only downside about Winter personally is, despite my love of snowy weather, the shorter daylight hours is something I'm not keen on. So is great to see that the days will be starting to draw out again. One (personal) issue with the shorter days is getting up early in the morning when it's dark outside is quite depressing, especially when you've got somewhere you need to go to and you just feel like snoozing off back to bed. Just personally doesn't feel quite right whereas getting up when it's light during Spring/Summer feels more natural to me. Towards Christmas, find myself tolerating it more, mostly due to the way it helps add a Christmassy flavour during December and it can perhaps suit the atmosphere of evening/night entertainment, otherwise the shorter days just get in the way. Also just makes me miss doing lengthy afternoon Spring and Summer walks and knowing you've still got lots of daylight left to undertake your missions.

Gloomy and damp this morning, but feeling fairly mild with a temperature of 8*C (though personally, it feels more like 10*C). Gentle flow from the South-South-West.

The models do seem reluctant to run the Polar Express service for the cold and snow weather enthusiasts at the moment with essentially some further unsettled weather at times from the Atlantic. The next few days, though, generally showing a bunch of Low Pressure systems digging quite far South within the upper trough in the mid-Atlantic throwing some ridges of High Pressure to the North/North-East of the UK - spells of rain moving up from the South or South-West at times. The worst of the wet weather likely to be towards South-Western or Western UK, although as the Lows out in the Atlantic start breaking through further East to the North-West of the UK, this looks to push the ridging over Northern/North-Eastern UK further East and keep heights over Europe quite strong. And, as such, target the worst of the unsettled conditions towards North-Western parts of the UK (Some people, especially those in flooded areas, could sure do with a break from the wet weather). The temperatures looking to also be mild at times, more so, over Southern UK (temperatures getting into double figures at times in the South). Northern parts leaning more towards cooler conditions at times, particularly across Scotland with some chilly nights. Some spots in the North, especially again over Scotland, could see a bit of a frost at times. Getting further on into the outlook (towards the end of this week and beyond) and you can see that the models keep the ridging and high heights to our East/South-East into Mainland Europe quite strong. A bit of a naughty High Pressure system it's being for those longing for some much colder weather (I appreciate some places do need to dry out, though). This European ridging helping to prevent Atlantic Lows dropping down into our East and continue to steer them North-Eastwards over Northern UK locking us into a mild (especially for Southern UK), windy, unsettled and, at times, cloudy spell from the South-West (example used from 12Z GFS at 144 hours below) Some of this is thanks to various models wanting to spring areas of the Vortex to our North-West around the Greenland area back into full power bringing an increasingly mobile and Westerly set up over the UK. Low pressure to North, higher pressure to South. This also promoting more of a flatter pattern over the UK with many models towards 240 hours showing hints of a generally cooler/less mild flow taking over from the West. A possibility that the UK could see a bit of a cool-down with more in the way of cool Polar air from the West getting into the mix at times. Specially for Northern areas where wintry weather could become more and more likely, even if it was just mostly for the hills (examples from the GFS, ECMWF and GEM below. Some little differences between each model, but do seem to show possibilities of some cooler Westerly flows taking over with the European ridging perhaps becoming more suppressed). . The 18Z GFS showing a variation of a similar theme in FI: Nothing admittedly too exciting for all the cold weather fans (better than nothing, though, I guess) and is still far off from anything cold and/or blocked. Despite the usual scatter that occurs on these charts beyond a few days or so, the below 12Z GEFS ensemble air temperature ensemble graphs from the London and Aberdeenshire graphs perhaps show enough of a dip to suggest temperatures may cool down closer to average figures towards Christmas. And, in fact, in some parts towards the end of the line graphs, the 12Z GFS operational model (green line) was actually a bit of a mild outlier in parts. So is possible the GFS may be slightly underestimating the possible (slight) cool down towards Christmas and that should more of a cooler Westerly flow take over, it could be a touch more potent than what the 12Z GFS operational has portrayed. I think you sometimes find in these kind of Westerly set ups where you have very low heights to our North/North-West and High Pressure to our South, it can allow secondary Lows to get into the mix. These Lows of which often running South along the trough low heights to our North/North-West, which can provide surprise snowfalls on there Northern flanks. It is also possible that the models may be ramping up the Vortex towards the end of there runs a little too much and is possible that some of these flat(ish) patterns some of the models are showing may become a little bit more amplified within time. Just like when models can overdo amplification of High Pressure in FI at times. And while the ensemble means aren't really the best guide to use beyond a certain number of days, for the sake of it, the 12Z ECMWF mean does show similar scenarios to the GFS, ECMWF and GEM operational models above with low heights to the North of the UK, higher heights and pressure to our South keeping us in a Westerly flow. It is however best, if possible, to use any available ECMWF ensemble spreads and ensemble graphs to get a better picture of the accuracy of the ensemble mean. Again, the mean does at least show that anything very cold and blocked is unlikely. But despite the good support for this sort of outcome, it's not necessarily completely definite. Was only this morning that the ECMWF operational model was showing a ridge from Canada toppling towards the UK with a brief build of pressure over us towards the end of the run - a lengthy UK anticyclonic spell being something that has been lacking. Would say it's a solution unlikely to occur at present sadly for those needing a break from the disturbed weather with an Atlantic, Westerly, dominated pattern being the more favoured option, currently. The 500mb means from the NOAA (both 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day) additionally showing quite an Atlantic dominated picture with heights likely to stay strong to our South-East over Europe. The 8 to 14 day chart showing possible hints of the pattern progressing a little bit further East with the lower than average heights over North-Western UK penetrating a touch further East with more of a direct Westerly upper flow over the UK (the 6 to 10 day version, for example, has more of a South-Westerly upper flow over the UK). This of which may allow some cooler polar to get into the mix at times, especially for Northern UK, from the West. Personally, for now, just can't see anything particularly cold or blocked occurring. While things can still change a few or more so days away, it's looking likely a more Atlantic pattern could take over perhaps with some chiller air getting into the mix at times. This again especially so for the North where some wintry outbreaks via Polar Maritime flows could be a possibility at times. That's probably the best it will get for cold weather prospects in the next week or so. There is always perhaps still the possibility that the models are being a bit flat with the pattern and maybe some of the ridging that gets held out West towards Eastern Canada at times may provide some interests regarding more amplified patterns. Otherwise anything really cold and wintry looking unlikely at the moment with the continuing El-Nino(esque) sort of pattern.

Some pretty incredible temperatures being reported in the Winter ramps and moans thread with one or two people getting up to 16*C. While I imagine other Decembers in the past have offered similar temperatures, is still quite remarkable. Just below 14*C at the moment here, but you could certainly be tricked into thinking it was Autumn at the moment (and, again, in some ways, the sort of temperatures that could perhaps be passed off as a (very) cool Summer's day). I think it wouldn't be terribly odd if an extremely cold spell was to suddenly arise at some point to try and even the weather out, even if the El Niño conditions delay any possible much colder conditions towards the second part of Winter. Not completely guaranteed, though. And there's always the chance some surprises could still pop up earlier on in the season.

Cloudy with the temperature exactly the same as that as Mark's above: 12.3*C. The Met Office expect the Solihull rain shield to explode tonight as some wet weather moves in from the West.

A good point! There is always a risk of just over-analysing things and paying too much attention to the fantasy outcomes each of the operational models show (lol). And I think the problem with that is it could lead to over-thinking trying to figure out what the general outcome the models are showing, even when you've the anomaly charts to compare to. Think some people have always mentioned it's best anyway to focus on what the longwave pattern is doing and to not focus too much on little surface features which may not affect the overall patterns that much.

Just a look at the various models and it does look as though there will be some active and wild weather to come up for places. Today, for example, there has been (and continues to be) some powerful gusts of wind for places thanks to a fickle Low Pressure system to the East of Iceland driving in gales from the Atlantic. The tightly packed isobars over the UK from the Low over Eastern Iceland combined with a strong North-Western UK Jet stream seems to be the cause of some disruptive conditions for places today (Saturday). More so towards North-Western parts of the UK with places, such as Cumbria, facing the worst of this: The charts above illustrate the stormy weather well with some particularly strong gusts and heavy downpours over North-Western parts. Some continued problems with flooding too, but the rain does look as though it will ease during the night and become patchier and lighter as in sinks South: This, I'm sure, will be great news for those affected by the manic weather conditions. And the strong gusts of wind should slacken off a bit into Sunday as we lose the strong South-Westerly gales (these strong gusts of wind retreating South-Eastwards into the North Sea): Though will still be quite windy for places. The next few days will continue a similar sort of theme as the models show ridges of High Pressure getting dragged East or North-East into Mainland Europe keeping heights to the East/South-East of the UK strong. This seemingly due to some further deep and intense Low Pressure systems out West in the Atlantic pumping up ridges into the nearby continent. These Atlantic Lows spiralling around the trough of low 500mb heights around the Iceland and mid-Atlantic area bringing further strong South-Westerly to Southerly winds over the UK at times with spells of heavy rain and showers for places, particularly for North-Western parts of the UK where flooding could continue to be a problem in that part: The above 500hpa and Sea Level Pressure charts from the 12Z GFS above, though, do show some ridging of High Pressure being close enough to influence South-Eastern areas of the UK at times with these parts seeing the best of some drier brighter, weather between the bands of rain. ...but nowhere looks to escape from the wet and blustery weather. Especially from Cold Fronts tracking East across the UK as in the example below using the Met Office FAX chart for next Tuesday. (Cold Front marked by the black line with spikes)... ...this being thanks to some cooler/less mild air trying to tuck in behind the weather fronts. Though North-Western UK areas would see the most influence from the cooler (and, at times, showery) Polar Maritime interludes from the North behind the weather systems. But because of the general South-Westerly or Southerly flow for the next few days, the temperatures, for this type of set-up, look to generally be on the mild side. The below charts, though, do show cooler air clinging on over Northern UK areas at times with the South-East seeing the best of the mildest conditions; particularly so in sunnier or brighter spells. South-Eastern areas also mostly being more under influence from Tropical Maritime air from the South-West. Some nights will be on the chilly side, too, for places. Again, especially so for North-Western areas. But not exclusively so: Note: this is just a general view of the outlook for the next few days (upto next Thursday) and the chances are the weather won't pan out exactly like this. Some little adjustments to the positioning of the Low and High Pressure systems, as an example, could have some fairly big affects as to the concentration of unsettled and disturbed weather conditions for the UK. As an overall theme, the idea of more wet, windy and stormy weather from the Atlantic with the European block keeping pressure higher towards South-Eastern UK at times seems very likely. Out to 144 hours - next Friday - and the GFS, ECMWF and UKMO generally agree with a chillier, showery, Westerly, flow taking over as the trough of Atlantic Lows, along with some low 500mb heights, move further Eastwards to be more positioned directly to the North of the UK. Maybe a chance for showers to become wintry over North-Western UK hills This pushes the European block further away to the East or South-East with more of West to East tracking Jetstream* through Southern UK. (*GFS used as an idea) You'll notice that the Jetstream coming out of the Eastern Canada/Northern America area to our West is more fragmented and more Southerly tracking compared to the Jetstream chart of today (Saturday), below: This not only allows chillier air to get further South across the UK for next Friday, bringing some lower heights over us, but it also appears to draw in some weakish Tropical Lows tracking South beneath an amplified ridge of High Pressure coming out of Eastern Canada. Black circle showing the weakish Tropical Low sliding beneath the narrow ridge of High Pressure above it coming out of Eastern Canada (as shown with the blue circle and blue arrow). This is one of the aspects that seems to lead to some increased meridional (amplified) patterns later on in some of the model runs, which I'll go onto in a bit. There is one opposition against the chillier, Westerly, flow for next Friday - the 12Z GEM! Has more of a milder, South-Westerly flow influencing the UK with what would seem to be a cold front over Northern UK. Another thing to note is it had one of the Low Pressure systems from the area of Tropical Lows trapped under the Atlantic ridge linking up with the main Atlantic trough over North-Western/Northern UK. The other models keep the Tropical Low(s) as separate features during that period. It's an additional aspect that delays the cooler air coming down from the West/North-West. To be fair, as a general pattern, it's not too far off from the other operational models at 144 hours - just that the GEM is a bit slower progressing the Atlantic Low Eastwards. Since it doesn't have much support from the other operational models, it's possible the GEM is being a bit slow with its evolution, and being too eager to merge one of its two little Tropical Lows with those Northern UK low heights. But interestingly, the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean shows more of a South-Westerly influence over the UK: Would perhaps be reasonable to say, though, that it would be more of a cool, Polar Maritime, sort of influence since the 850hpa temperatures for much of the UK are below 0*C. Plus, at that time range, the ensemble mean will blend out some of solutions from its ensemble members masking some detail of the surfaces features. Doesn't really show how cut-off that weakish Tropical/Azores Low to the South-West of the UK would be, whereas almost all operational models at that time-frame easily show the Tropical Low(s) being a cut-off feature. I think overall, though, some kind of Polar Martime (or some kind of cool down) is possible towards the end of next week with some pretty good support for it. How far East the Atlantic Lows progress and the amount it pushes the European ridging away further East (if it really does) is still a little uncertain. And also whether any Tropical Lows to our South-West link up with Lows to our North. Some situations of which could have some bearings as to what happens further down the line. Focusing a little on the patterns further ahead (192 to 240 hours) and there are some varied solutions on offer. One aspect that perhaps seems evident is the possibility of a more amplified and/or blocked patterns occurring (as mentioned as a possible outcome further up in this post). As to whether any true Mid-Latitude or High-Latitude blocking occurs will probably in some ways depend on the behaviour of those Tropical Lows to our South-West and how it behaves with the Lows over Northern UK as well as (possibly) the strength of the Vortex to our North-West towards Greenland. What would probably appear to help as well is seeing the Tropical/South-Western UK lows attempting to undercut any of the ridges of High Pressure that get pushed to our East and help prop the highs further North to provide the cold weather fans with an Easterly flow. For up to 240 hours the GEM seems to be one of the worst solutions for those looking for more blocked and/or cooler solutions as it merges the Tropical Low too far West with the Low heights over Greenland, pushing the ridge to the West of the UK to our South into Europe drawing in a mild flow from the South-West. One of the better solutions, though, seems to be the 12Z ECMWF where the Tropical Low remains cut-off as it tracks to the North-East of the UK while sustaining some kind of Atlantic ridge to our West. Doesn't end on a cold note admittedly, but does at least show more of a meridional pattern and help provide a break to constant West to East travel of Atlantic Lows. In a way, breaks up the Westerly drivern Atlantic pattern. Something else to notice about the charts below is the Polar Vortex is generally disorganised with the ECMWF and GEM, in particular, showing the main chunks way out to our North-East around the Russia/Siberia area. I think as some talked about in the last few days is how it's important to see as much of the Vortex as possible getting knocked over to our East/North-East without much of the Vortex/very low 500mb heights getting stuck to our North-West over Greenland/Canada (if Westerly Atlantic drivern weather ain't your thing) as it could still pump further Atlantic Lows our way and try to flatten any ridges of High Pressure to our West. Not to mention trying to add fuel to the Jet Stream coming out of Canada/Northern America. The more the pieces of the Vortex clear away from Greenland/Canada (unless it's not too intrusive or is far enough West into Canada to not be of much bother to the UK), the more room it can leave for height rises to occur to our West. Which could then lead to some blocked and/or chillier conditions down the line. Using the GEM as an example again, it shows how having a chunk of the Vortex left to over Greenland leads to a solution that would make some of the cold weather enthusiasts want to shut there eyes. Essentially quite a flat pattern over the UK towards the end of the run. 12Z GFS 12Z ECMWF 12Z GEM For the time being, would say the solutions offered by models towards the end of next week and beyond look quite messy with a few things to sort out. Have probably rambled on too much regarding model solutions in the dreamland zone. Some of my ideas I admit probably are quite inaccurate in places as there are others who have better experience with using those Northern Hemisphere charts above and have better understandings of the behaviour of the Jetstream. For the next ten days at least, though, none of the models this evening and tonight are showing any real cold spell (even if some show more of an amplified pattern that may lead to something more favourable for chilly/blocked conditions further down the line, or some that show undercutting Low Pressure possibilities). Tonight's 6 to 10 day NOAA 500 mean chart backs up the idea of nothing too cold occurring by showing higher than average heights to our South-East over Europe and lower than average heights over the UK/Western UK, which could suggest further troughs of further cyclonic activity affecting us, especially Northern UK. Nothing too mild or too cold with an upper flow from the West. As such, any upper ridges of High Pressure towards, and over, the UK would have to be very brief, especially over Northern UK, to prevent the mean chart from registering higher than average heights over the UK. Nothing particularly blocked on the above chart, and despite the higher than average heights the chart shows over Eastern Canada, the 8 to 14 day mean chart keeps those positive heights locked up over Eastern/North-Eastern Canada. Little too far West really to benefit those wanting to see some much colder conditions. The NAEFS 12Z 500mb mean chart at 240 hours not showing a particularly clear signal, though, but perhaps suggesting some ridging to continue hanging about to the East/South-East of the UK with the odd areas of slightly below average heights to our South-West and over Greenland to promote some further outbreaks of cyclonic weather. Though neither the lower or higher anomalies are that invasive over the UK, so could just be a mixture of anything really. The chart does however, show, some strong higher than average heights towards Eastern Canada and does bear some similarities to the NOAA charts above. Personally wouldn't say the confidence beyond next week (with perhaps some little uncertainties near the end of next week) is terribly high (even though there always is going to be some doubts for what the weather does beyond the next few days). In some ways, I feel until the models get a better handle on how those tropical Lows and how the ridging coming out of Canada behaves as well as how these Lows could interact with features to the North of the UK, while perhaps also monitoring the strength of the Vortex to our North or North-West, then would be weary some of the solutions the outputs show for now. Considering the accuracy of the mean charts, like those from the NOAA, would tend to side a little more towards them. Maybe, though, should models such as the GFS (and the 18Z run in fact does this) show the Tropical Lows to our South-West being able to undercut the Canadian and Atlantic ridge as it gets knocked over the UK, without those Lows linking up with Lows further North, then some little surprises like this aren't out of the question: A channel Low idea that is able to bring a flow in from the East over the South of the UK and something that could provide some wintry surprises on its Northern flank over Southern UK. This is just an example, however. Think there's still a fair bit to sort out, though, and let's face it, in average Winter, the UK doesn't see prolonged cold spells with constant Northern blocking and I think sometimes it can be easy to expect too much. At the same time, I can sympathise with the cold weather admirers in the South who haven't seen any (proper) snow in a while. Hopefully, something will turn up soon. Lots of time for snowy opportunities still.

Don't know what Solihull did, but the weather is really losing its temper with the place. Throwing about so much heavy, squally, rain over the area.

Doesn't really quite feel like it's actually December. The thought of it being Christmas in about 3 weeks time feels a bit odd (though not completely odd). But although there has been some cooler days, for the time of year we're in, it's been feeling generally quite mild and Autumnal-like here, excluding the cold wintry snap during late November. Early this morning, for example, the temperature was almost 13*C (didn't get any higher than 13*C itself today, though, probably thanks to the cloudy South-Westerly airmass). The sort of temperature that wouldn't be terribly unusual to occur on a cool late-Spring or early-Summer's day.

Exploding with mildness this morning with the temperature nearing 13*C. A temperature of which that really wouldn't be too out of place on a cool(ish) Summer morning. Very damp outside too after a spell of heavy rain came in for an attack last night. Fairly light winds from the South.

My worst enemy outside - Cloud and... drizzle! Current temperature around 6.6*C with a low of 5.6*C. Bit cooler than yesterday.

Agree with some of the above responses. I think it's an amusing idea and it sounds cool giving storms various names. However, do feel Mark N raises a point about how giving all these storms names can make them seem as though they're really intense, despite the fact some of these storms may not produce particularly strong gusts of wind or do much mayhem. As a result, reckon only the Low Pressure systems that have the capability to produce disruptive wind speeds (say around 50 to 60mph or above) should be given names. Examples of possible random personal names to give to some of the future monstrous storms such as: Jaws, Bruce, Nuclear Cyclone, CBOT (Cyclonic Ball Of Terror), Twirlywhirly, Thrust, Lady Gagale (pronounced as Lady Gar-gale), and Le Farty.

Sorry Scotland, but you and your snow won't get away with this...