PolarWarsaw

Sorry I was looking at Monday's event, looked good for a widespread 10CM job yesterday, Ian mentions 2CM and potential for a bit of a mess. That's what I was referring to.

Snow outlook seemingly decreasing with every run. Chance perhaps of this turning into a slushy mess with milder air returning by Tuesday. We will see.

Damn whilst the 0z looks better for long lasting cold it takes the Snow event east, more marginal and id advise anyone to keep a 'it's going to rain Monday mindset'

Better for longevity this, easterly looks cleaner. On a downer Mondays event looks rainy from an IMBY perspective. Needs a 100 mile push west.

The transition zone is literally right over heads. If we get sleet and rain whilst 30 miles east gets 10CM, I'm going to be angry.

Staffs looks like being 50 or so miles to far west as per. Looks very 50-50 ATM.

A poor start to the day if it's longevity your after, and a certain decline in snow likelihood. 50-50 whether I should stay up for the ECM.

Mmmm - we will see how things go with the ECM. But I'm a tad 'ho hum' about this mornings charts SO FAR. Still all to play for and absolutely no signal. Prolonged cold 55% Milder attack mid next week 45%

Odds on theECM making more SW drama tonight? A better early-medium term GFS, slightly less extreme 12z UKMO. GEM looks great! Wonder what the ECM will serve for tea.

I can accept a short lived spell at the expense of a good snow event. I'm really not worried over the longevity at all, given that factors including a SSW and comments from Ian F, Steve, GP, Chino all suggest more blocking potential is showing up down the line.

I think I can safely announce - whichever model gets this wrong won't be getting a look in for the remainder of winter with me.

My mistake - meant 3 GFS runs!

GFS picked the initial trend up for this weekend as well. I've gone from slightly worried to being concerned, that's 3 poor 12z runs. I'll settle for a short lived cold spell, IF The weekend produces.

I think itl stay South of us in Staffs anyway.

I can see a certain Mr.Murr has awoken himself at 3:45am to watch the 0z role, that's when you realise there's potential in the output.

Doesn't sound a particularly good update from the MO regarding the white stuff for Saturday, have to say this period despite looking 'potentially exciting' I'm still going to need until at least Thursdays 12z to take any real confidence in the weekends outputs. If the UKMO is to be believed, I'd imagine the 2 big GFS runs tommorrow will lose snow chances for Saturday.

So who's up for the 0z?

Not sure if I'll be able to handle looking in here tommorrow!

All an OP is, is a pick of the ENS. This morning we had a bad pick, the opposite end this afternoon. 12zgasm. *Can only get worse from here though, from experience will do to*

Would I be the only one that's reached the point where a transitional, 1 day white event would be more than enough to make me happy? Let's face it the stress of getting a dry, HP, long lasting cold spell has been too much this year. Bring on battleground Britain.

Have to be honest - enjoying walking to work without freezing at the moment.

He's negative because the output for cold is around a 2/10 mark at the moment. The ENS, the teleconnections and all bar 1 or 2 ECM frames at a long distance out show absolute Atlantic and LP dominated conditions. I'm willing to bet I want an outcome similar to most In this thread, but some of the straw clutching is unreal over the last couple of days. It feels like people are searching the 'chart stack' for a cold needle. Bar Nick, are any of the major collies contributing to this thread? That alone, tells you enough.

Acceptable in your case *ONLY*.

Why are people getting excitable? After the performance of the models in recent times, cold runs need not be excited at and mild runs shouldn't bring the razor blades out.

I think it's fair to say, of Steve explains that there is no hope for cold fans within at least the next 7 days and the patterns we are now in are poor - then we should take a weeks break away as he points out. The Synoptics looks oh so very poor and despondent in comparison to this time 7 days ago.