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jukebox

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Posts posted by jukebox

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Im allowing myself to be slightly optimistic that I will see at least some snow falling next week.

    BBC forecast now extends to Tuesday and shows light snow shower for Nuneaton.

    I would'nt pay much attention to the BBC 5 dayers mate. Quite often they dont call the weather for the present day correct let alone 5 days outcrazy.gif About as much use as Metcheck imo.

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    what % would you give stoke for snow

    100% chance of you seeing snow but about a <50% chance of it stickingwhistling.gif If it does snow and settle it may produce some travel disruption for the evening but it will turn to rain/melt any snow as the warmer sector pushes through. Be a night for fraggling at the streetlights and maybe popping a bag of the white stuff in the freezer till next year as at the moment things dont look to good for a renewed cold spell in the forseeable mega_shok.gif

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Latest NAE brings snow risk to a larger part of the midlands

    10020318_0212.gif

    West mids, Staffs,Stoke,Derby etc look more favourable for abit of snow but I would suspect those with a bit of elevation or those who can get the heavier bursts and some evaporative cooling will do ok ?? Dew points look a bit marginal to me but as this chart is for 6pm then temps should start falling as evening falls so this could spring a surprise or two good.gif

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Good morning all. Looks like the met have got some of our parts in for a bit of snow tonight

    Risk of disruptionWarningValidWest Midlands: Shropshire Staffordshire Stoke-on-Trent Telford + WrekinWidespread Icy Roads & Heavy SnowSun 31 JanThere is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting Northern Ireland and parts of Wales, Southwest England, the West Midlands and Northwest England.

    Sleet and snow showers developing overnight Saturday into Sunday may bring accumulations of snow, especially over higher ground, and lead to widespread ice on untreated roads and pavements.

    Issued at: 1103 Sat 30 Jan

    though I'll believe that when I see itwhistling.gif Although the most recent NAE shows this for tomorrow

    10013112_3006.gif

    So in short maybe a few lucky people may see a bit of snow overnight and into tomorrow morning though I would'nt expect to much accumulation just some nice beefy showers.drinks.gif

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Apparently its going to start to fizzle out as it gets to Birmingham.. mellow.gif Only a cm or 2.. mellow.gif

    I'd rather that then be one of those poor buggers in Haiti at the moment.

    Apparently my friend you are very wrongblum.gif Care to share your source of information because all weather forecasts national and regional forecast snow. also most if not all of the models do to?? Not sure on depths but you WILL see snow tonight. As I mentioned earlier it was never forecast to get here till around midnight anyway so its a bit foolish to write it off yet mate.good.gif

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Cheers mate. I think the projected pivot over the midlands, with the ppn band taking more of a northerly track, could help out a good portion of us a great deal.

    It'll be sad to see it all go, but at least we now know that prolonged cold still exists in the dreaded "christmas pudding" *shudder*.

    Ha ha...LOVE how m***** era has been added to the swear filter. Awesome stuff. rofl.gif

    LOL. That m***** era chuff, I remember a few years back on here and over on TWO that one certain individual whistling.gif used to bang that drum so loud and I used to love reading people ripping em to shreds but they always stood firm blum.gif . I cant remember the name of the person but it would be interesting to hear there stance now ??

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    In my view, its all going as expected anyway. Its slowing up and if it gets here, it'll take a while to get here. Its only 6:15pm and if it does arrive, its not due to arrive until overnight anyway.

    So nothing is going wrong yet. All the places that were due to get hit badly today are getting hit. The front is slowing up considerable, that was expected.

    A very slow few hours ahead!

    Good post that manclap.gif This was never progged to get here before midnight anyway so why all the doom and gloom?????????????? Give it a chance to get here at least before writing it off. And why is that people always have a FEELING about something but are proved wrong at the end of the event?? At least try and post a chart as to explain why you think something is going wrong and then people can learn as to why you think that before jumping on the wrist slitting band wagonnonono.gifnonono.giflazy.gif

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Humm if only - that covers me and it ifs still snowing then - we could be in for a right dumping lol!

    after the disappointment of yesterday - i reckon no snow at all....anything more and il be happy

    Best to think that way mate then anything is a bonuswhistling.gif lol

    I don't think many models portray precip and accumulation that accurately. If you take some charts and put them against the eventual radar distribution, there's always discrepancies. Particularly in overdoing the spread. I very much doubt that distribution will be to the extent that those charts show.

    I'll make sure I get you some pictures then mate lol. I believe that the NAE is a higher res than other models and its faired pretty well so far. Like I said earlier though theres still time for upgrade or downgrade and if it intensifies over the sea then it could be the holy grail for us. Think we,ll have a better idea tomorrow but these situations are what favour our area most without a shadow of a doubt cold.gif

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Not so sure on that one. If you have a look at the precip accumulation charts there is very little for the majority of the midlands. Mainly remnants of what was.

    For some reason I dont find those charts on accumulation that accurate ? Could go either way but the fact is it starts falling at night so should stick but theres still time for it to go titticus verticus. Last nights snow was only a weak affair really but it went from wet crappy sleety rain in the day to half decent snow during the night with decent recoverings for some.. Dont think we can be sure at the moment about amounts but the potential is there definately.

    DEAL NOEL! biggrin.gif

    LOL The potential seems to be getting better mate but if we do get any accumulation then from what I read at lunchtime then you should be expected to walk all the way to Cannock to school young manacute.gif lol

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Latest NAE projections look like a good upgrade 10011312_1118.gifto my eye compared to the last output....................... More of the region looks like joining in the fun but its totally at odds with the latest bbc forecast.. Which one will win or backdown this time after yesterdays fiasco?? My moneys on the Nae for now................good.gif

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Evening all. Tomorrow looks very interesting for our neck of the woods especially the western sideclap.gif I mentioned last night that the models were all over the place and that they should upgrade and bring the low further N/E and today our wishes have been answeredyahoo.gif I think around midnight tomorrow night the western side of the region should start seeing something ,possibly sleety to start with, before spreading to a good part of the region by the morning. The western and south west parts of the region will do the best out of this situation if it pans out as progged at the moment but theres still time for things to change.....10011306_1112.gif

    These are the type of scenarios that bring us the best snow events in this region and if the front can make a little more inroads and sustain its intensity then there is every chance that this COULD be the main snow event of the season for some!! I would'nt like to put a depth of snow guess forwards, as for last nights event when I mentioned some places could get about 3" it was stated that that I was to optomistic lolwhistling.gif If you take a look here http://www.sat24.com/ then you can see the atlantic system trundling along but also a westerly flow on the continent. Let the battleground commencedrinks.gif

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    You are right these events are often eventual nowcasts, no certainities until T0. Just a gut feeling I have.

    These are the best snow situations for our area in general when we get attacked by moist air from the west and it collides with cold air already established and gives us a severe dumping. But as has been mentioned its definately one to be watched as it could very easily upgrade or downgrade. More runs needed methinksgood.gif .

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by jukebox

    blink.gif

    South West, Wales and a small portion of the west midlands look like getting a bit of a pasting. Shame it hasn't got any chance at all of reaching this far. On to the next battleground...

    The way the models have performed recently then you'd be a fool to write it off just yet ! On the countryfile forecast it was mentioned that the band would just stop and sit there before being stretched and veering off into two opposite directions. I think at least 12 hours maybe even 6 hours before the event before we know for sure mate. If the precip is heavy enough then im sure that the cold already in situ coupled with evap cooling would ensure that somewhere gets a pasting if it can make it?

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It's very strange that the Met Office are saying rain has fallen at Coleshill in the last few hours.....

    http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

    ...when, a few miles down the road where I live we've had fairly decent if insubstantial snowfall for the past few hours.

    Regards,

    Mike.

    I,m sure this was showing rain midweek aswell when we had the snow! I find it hard to believe as Coleshill has got a fair bit of elevation I think and where the met office recording station is its very open to the extremeties... very strange..

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The snow is offering no accumulations and isn't in any way significant tbh.

    Not at the moment its not but if it continues then later when temps drop it will stick more readily. Admittedly it probably wont amount to a massive amount but beggars cant be choosers and over the last few years we'd have given an arm or a leg for these conditions.whistling.gif

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I can't see where anymore snow is going to come from. The Met Office warnings should have been taken down by now, must have forgot about them or something.

    Yes but people are having light to moderate snow and nothing is showing on the radar! Also I believe that some down south are getting a pounding from the snow and again nothing on the radar! Radar,s no good better off just looking up and seeing whats falling good.gif

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I think you might be right, the west Mids is probably less marginal. I think it is starting to settle here now, trying its best anyway.

    I still think some of us will do ok from this later. Maybe not as much as was thought yesterday but still time for some pleasant surprises later. Does anyone know whats actually caused the situation to be so marginal today ? Warm sector, high 850,s etc ?????

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