in the vale

Commission - I wish!! I have tried to insert the latest radar image, but failed.......... PS Huge flakes here now

I am not sure about Google, but I used to watch all sorts of free radar stuff (usually about 30 mins behind at least), until I discovered NW radar. You can get this for £3.49 /month, which whilst not peanuts is great value. PS I said to the Mrs earlier "bloody radar says it should be snowing now....oh....it is...."

There are two large(ish) streams hitting Cym now from the Irish Sea - one for me which seems to be never ending (well, ending over Belfast) and the other heading (across the Lleyn) into Barmouth and onto Dolgellau. There is a smaller stream hitting near Aberystwyth heading SE towards Builth. DP here is -0.2 which is sufficient for light snow at the mo.

Guitar - where did that chart come from? It doesn't look anything like the 12z GFS for sat 06 that I can see. I also note the 2006 copyright symbol on the chart?

I suspect these are models used in the States (at a guess) to predict the potential of tornado activity forming from supercells. I am not sure whether these have any relevance over here but someone who knows what they are talking about may well be able to contribute. Where did you get them from?

No idea what it predicts, but it is a prediction of supercell motion using the Hodograph technique....like I know what I am talking about!!

There are a number of potential events (LP moving south over us, with a Northerly driving colder air down) that could (I REPEAT - COULD) combine to give Wales (esp. N Wales ) a real pasting next week. The cold (relative to the Feb average) looks like being maintained in the Northern Half of the UK for possibly another 10 days (if the best bits of the models play out as currently shown) so any precipitation resulting from any unstable air mix may well fall as snow. This is all many days away - and is likely to change - but the potential is there for widespread snow in NWestern UK parts. edit - PS That is the first time I have actually looked at the evidence and formed some sort of forecast, so please be gentle....

That's what I asked in the first place. The chart (NAE t48) shows snow from Derby eastwards, and rain further east and south. edit - Thank you for answering the question Weather09 - that's all I was after.

-7 uppers, dewpoint around or below freezing, 528 DAM. Why would that be mainly rain?

The NAE +48 shows snow much further west (midlands almost) than other models have been suggesting. Any thoughts or have I misread GFS etc.?

I understand that, but is the point of forecasting not to look at many 'coulds' (i.e. ensembles) and try to determine the 'should' - i.e. the mean, or the most likely? I have read so many discussions leading up to this mornings runs that talk about outliers etc. but some people have given their reasons why one particular outcome is more likely to occur than others. In the case of the upcoming cold spell a good example was TEITS explaining why the Atlantic LP needed to track SE. That may or may not happen, but at least it was an explanation that taught me (and many others) something. This is OT so apologies, I'll shut up now!

If this is not a place to learn then I will leave. My request simply reflects my frustration at posts (not just Mr Browns) that state the obvious (i.e. it could do something) without showing people who have been here a month (an awful lot longer before posting, but I forgive you for your incorrect assumption) without providing evidence to back it up. Science has never meant 'knowing' as you put it. Science has always been about testing theory with practical backup. If all scientists just went off on theory without the requirement to back it up with evidence then we'd still be drilling holes in peoples heads to cure headaches. Ian does generally back his theories up, but tonight he hasn't. Could remains 'could' until someone turns in into 'should' and backs that up. Apologies for being arrogant and rude in your opinion. But hey - as you point out I only have 21 posts so I clearly don't count. (edit - 22 now!)

Is that it??? Are newbies supposed to learn from that?? Anyone coming in new (i.e. me) would be dismayed by that. I hope I cause no offence but that does not sound anything remotely like objective model interpretation. I would really like to learn from this forum - not be influenced by individuals previous disappointments!

It is a reasoned explanation - but are there any signs that this will happen? There may be - but as a newbie I would like to see some explanation why. Maybe I am missing something? If there are signs - what are they?

Could, could, could, could. Stop it with the 'could' Mr Brown. This is science and if you can't back your 'could' up with reasons and probability then please don't post. Please. Simple request.

Steve - I agree and I know next to nothing. Some people (as per the post from Mr Brown above) love to use the word 'could' all the time. We 'could' be hit be a huge asteroid tomorrow. But the chances are very small. I (as a numptie, never mind newbie) come to this thread to read informed opinions on what is more likely to happen than not. Folk who like to express an extreme opinion all the time just so every blue moon they can say "I told you so" makes me really regret renewing my damned expensive annual fee to NW. Please mods - sort this stuff out, you keep threatening but I continue to see psychology 101 played out every day instead of objective model discussion. Honestly - this is science. Currently more like the playground, poor, poor, poor.

Do you mean Colomendy in Loggerheads near Mold (place where schools go to stay for a few days)? If so, then no - no snow. Drove past it an hour ago - just a bit of rain. Pity because they got completely dumped on early Jan and a few snow events since.

The UKMO is an Executive Agency of the MoD, and as such is (partly - accepted) funded by us as Taxpayers. I work in the government, and I know we are all under immense pressure to communicate more with the public. I am not demanding something extraordinary here - just a thought. I know this does not apply to other (purely commercial) model providers, but surely communicating with the general public is never a bad thing? (OK I can think of many exceptions, but the weather is not one of them!)

This may be in the wrong thread so mods feel free to ..... Anyway, with the models swinging about so much there must clearly be a signal or two that are acting as 'fulcrums' around which the models swing. The guys and girls that run and interpret these models must be even more stressed and bewildered than the good folk on this forum. Do they never communicate with the real world amateur forecast people? Do they have no communication channels to pass information on? I know that hugely complex terrafloppy supercomputers run the numbers but real people set the models and parameters before hitting the 'go' button for each run. Why do we never hear about their headscratching - only the wildly swinging outputs. If the economic forecasts (which use similarly, unimaginabley huge computers running Monte Carlo simulations) struggle then we get to hear why. I am puzzled as to why professional forecasters sit in a black hole that allows no information beyond the event horizon... Or am I missing some vital piece of the puzzle? As a complete novice - quite likely!

A bit of graupel here too.

Just a small note - full moon is tomorrow not today. I hope the skies tomorrow are either a) clear to see a great full moon / mars view, or :wacko: so full of snow you can't see 20 yards.

Is there a model thread that deals only out to T60? (Rhetorical - I know there isn't, I looked...) It looks like we may have an interesting weekend ahead that is right in front of our noses and it is being completely ignored! I would like to hear experienced folk share their views on this timeframe so I can learn more about UK weather as it happens (almost) rather than each FI run being dissected and argued over. FI may or may not happen and by the time we get there today's debates will be forgotten. There is interesting weather happening above our heads and the trees are clearly obscuring the wood - as it were....

I'll come back after my tea then (I know - off topic - waiting to be bumped again)

Oh Boy! My Excitometer would have made interesting viewing this evening!!

Thanks for the welcome! And thanks for the enthusiatic response to the suggestion! I am sure that, over time, data relating to traffic flow in response to model output type (cold/mild/windy/hot etc.) would show some very interesting patterns that may help you plan capacity and show what folk get excited about the most! I suspect that may lead you onto new products that are targetted at weather types that can respond directly to model outputs. Maybe.... Good luck!