Hurricane Buckley
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Posts posted by Hurricane Buckley
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Winds coming from West/north west here now. It's certainly feeling colder.
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Still nothing here yet in Taunton, hardly had any rain or anything, front seems slower than forecast.
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Looking better this morning, hopefully sign of what's to come.
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Next week looking wetter, but who fancy's a dry, warm weekend?
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Just comparing a few charts, but the NAE has the front at 48 hours slightly further North and West than the GFS or NAVGEM does, maybe the NAE wants to bring it into the SW? The NAVGEM has been showing the front coming right over us now for a while but problem being it would turn to rain as the milder air mixes in, hope the NAE is on to something and the GFS is beginning to adjust to it now.
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I was just thinking that.
See if it leads to anything over the next coming runs of charts, looks like the FAX has the front on Sunday slightly further North too.
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Is it me or does the front for us look further North over the SW on the 18z?
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Is it me or is the front to the SW on the GFS further North?
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My thinking is we'll see a warming over weeks in April, but nothing to warm with some more attacks from the Atlantic, don't buy the EC 32 outlook.
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I urge caution or though the charts show snow across the South watch it all dive South, I expect it maybe a non event or just a SW thing
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ECM is fantastic for Bristol/ Bath South, brings us snow, not too heavy but moderate snow for a while.
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After looking at the charts for the last couple of days, the battle between the Atlantic vs Scandi High is looking like a close run thing, but im going for a win for the Scandi High with the M4 being the main battleground zone then spreading East, the concern is for the SW is that the front seems to be going E to be honest.
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Do you know if the concerns raised by exeter are still there for next week Ian?
To me it seems to be going South back into the channel, but would be interesting to hear what the professionals think.
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Hmmm. Well, we run with 5-10cm parts of Cotswolds by end Saturday and 2cm MOGREPS mean accumulation parts of northern B&NES. Still 30% PROB some further south but this signal now strengthening for London and SE, albeit stronger still to N of London... I'll test that for real going to Herts for weekend....!
I dont see it coming that far South as in terms of snow for Somerset, i hope im wrong but just not convinced enough.
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From the high res NASA model...
Wont happen sadly
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Not surprisingly, GFS 12z Tuesday's snow not appearing on the 18z GFS.
Yeah my thoughts were either the GFS was on to something or was on something alcoholic :L
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'That met-office forecaster' - Presume you are referring to our netweather celebrity Ian Fergusson?
And his actual quote was 'Latest from Exeter: concerns re potential for another "significant snow event.... with drifting and blizzards" most likely days 9-10. Potential further south, too.'
'Potential further south, too' - Not just for the South!
Anyhow, thats a long way away yet.
Edit: Also, saw an interesting fact today that the AO has hit -5.2 today, making it the second lowest March value on record!
Yeah i just saw what someone wrote about it, so thanks for correcting me
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Has anyone seen that met-office forecaster from Exeter talking about easter weekend being very snowy in the South with drifting snow and blizzards, they think the cold will be hanging around for sure!
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Im not expecting a massive event for sure, just the risk of snow in the South.
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Im sticking with the colder theme of weather, however the UKMO blizzard chart is unlikely to come off.
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Although most of the peturbations from the 17th onwards stay below the average, it is nowhere near what we have now.
The ensembles are definitely bringing in the cold rain scenario's.
I agree, it'll stay chilly but we won't see anything like this again and also another factor is everyday that big thing in the sky we call the sun is getting higher too.
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Winters not done yet, GEFS has it staying chilly or cold all month.
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Just a little something for people in the Taunton Deane area, Snow ploughs have been fitted to all gritters...i wonder why?
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radar looking more and more interesting to say the least
There is a lot of PPN off the Cornwall coast, still heading North and hasnt moved East yet.
South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->
in Regional
Posted
-3 here, very cold Indeed tonight in Taunton.