Jason M

Yep, fair assessment of the way things are looking down here.

Nothing is impossible but I’d put a 10% probability on that for Xmas day. For late afternoon Boxing Day it’s more 50%. In the far SE though I think it’s lower at perhaps 30%. The cold air will get here but I’m expecting it to be painful. The control run is fantastic and might well be where we end up. That’s just days of rain in the far SE though. Geographically we’re a tiny area but a highly populated one so it’s worth mentioning. For most though it’s looking more promising. I remember the good old days when we could get uncomplicated easterlies via a Scandi high.

Good charts for most this morning. I think we’re now starting to firm up on which areas will def miss out though. I think the far S and SE are now out of the game for Xmas day. Could change but but the GEFs are 100% agreed on this and I’ve barely seen any chart bringing these areas into the fray. For Boxing Day the south comes more into things but if I had to pick an area that could miss out completely it is the far SE. I think we might end up too near the low and for the area SE of London (Kent, Essex, East Sussex) we might get nearly all rain. Weirdly the last few winters have seen a lot of this and I’ve lost count of the number of times this has happened in recent years. so looking much better for most than this time yesterday, but with proviso for the unlucky few in my area that we may be watching it on the news rather than through our windows.

That's easy, because if your talking about Xmas day, it almost certainly will be BBQ territory based on current expectations (maybe bit of OTT but I guess some people do have BBQ's in 10c and rain). Here in Essex i'm readying my 'southern sledge' for the big day. Its often known in these parts as an 'umbrella'

You are both right, but are comparing different things. He's talking about the 25th whereas you are talking about the 26th.

For me, this was the post of the year

And areas that have elevation. Basically, high ground in the north and maybe lower levels in NE England i'd have thought. Better run this, very close but not quite enough to break out the cigars.

But will the METO also move a bit towards GFS in the morning? We often see a meeting in the middle. Really, we could do with the full METO / ICON here as we have so little headroom.

That ICON run is good! 18Z GFS is looking better as well so far.

Leaving aside the Christmas period a new trend has been emerging this morning around the day 10 mark. Quite a few runs in the 0z ensembles, the gfs 0z run and ECM opp all have the strong night rises across Spain. Too early to worry overly but just worth keeping an eye on because if it continues to grow as a signal it is bad news. Xmas itself isn’t resolved yet for most. If you live in the far south just assume rain. If your in northern England, Scotland there is a good chance of some snow falling. For those in the middle say M4 up to M62 corridor it’s still in the balance.

Yep, for us in south Essex it might be worth getting hold of some of those dinghies that are being are sitting in warehouses in Kent. If you have any pets it might be worth loading them onto the ark. For the everywhere north of the M4 though looking good. edit. Does get there eventually on this run.

No worries, consider it forgotten Things looking a bit better tonight, looking at ECM.

A fair assessment in my view. For us I reckon its nothing but rain and watching reports from elsewhere of snow falling. Recent years have not been good to us in the SE as Kent and Essex in particular have missed out on almost every occasion. I think its a case of assume the worst and be happy if it works out better.

Yep, just looking through them as best I can and the message seems to be 'computer says no' for the south & SE. South midlands northwards your in the game though. They are just a snapshot for 6am in the morning so don't tell us too much.

Its actually not particularly cold and for much of Southern England its Wet Wet Wet rather than Snow Patrol . Lots of good looking charts in the GEFS and there are some cold ones but most look more dramatic than they really are. If you look at the associated 850s etc I've seen worse but quite a few are a bit meh!

Way to far off IMHO to think about. Plus I might yet be proved completely wrong on the upcoming period .

I can't see it making a difference in the long run tbh. In my experience you start with a west based -NAO which causes an area of low pressure to set up somewhere south of Iceland in the mid atlantic. Pressure then rises across Iberia in response and we get locked into a self reinforcing mild pattern. Unless something major changes its currently looking like a done deal. Yes, there are some good ensembles around the place but when the opps all say 'no' it usually ends up going only one way. Weirdly we will probably end up by new year where I predicted a few days ago except I thought the UK high would just decline SE. I wasn't expecting to there via a west based -NAO ! We have lost heights to our NE and replaced them with a trough which often looks pretty on the 500 charts but rarely delivers much other than a couple of days of bog standard winter weather. For me, I'll just check in on the morning runs to make sure, but frankly I think its a done deal. Surprised Jules isn't about this evening. After the stick he's taken from some on here he ended up being right .

Yep, and you can already see the heights across Iberia increasing in response to the big low. That could only end badly in my view.

As other have mentioned, rain could be a big issue over the Christmas period. If the belt of low pressure sits just to our north / north west we will be right in the firing line for a string of small but very active lows running around the southern side of the trough.

Must admit I'm a bit surprised as to how this has evolved. Happy to admit I was thinking of a sinking high. Instead we look like going down the west based -NAO route. Usual form horse here is deepening mid atlantic low with height rises to our SE in response. In essence, for us a one way ticket to Mildesville! Could be wrong but I think you follow the trend and its been all downhill for the last 24 hours. ECM tends to over egg easterlies so maybe a last hurrah on the 12Z run later. Edit: Don't know why its quoting @staffmoorlands here?

Huge uncertainty though given that the massive divergence in temps at day 4 and 5.

At long range ECM has an awful lot of history with easterlies. GFS can spin up huge lows whereas ECM over amplifies and tends to show a lot of easterly options. It’s nice to see charts like that being shown on Christmas Day but I’m very skeptical.

Much too far into FI to care what the opp and control do. By day 12 they are just GEFS really. Its when they break ranks from the GEFS at days 5-8 you need to take notice.

Proper continental airmass so 850s don't need to be particularly low. The opposite of last Jan where it was med sourced and -8 850s were not really enough. You need decent 850s for convection but any frontal precipitation would be wintry I'd have thought (without looking at the 850s). It is a cold chart.

Or toys being thrown . Being Christmas, the one prediction I can confidently make is there will be lots of toys around the place so it could get ugly if Santa doesn't deliver the white stuff