Jason M

That perfectly illustrates what happens with the west based set up. Pressure quickly builds over Spain and its game over. Looks today like the odds of this set up have declined somewhat but discount it at your peril.

Quick snapshot of GEFS. I had a quick scan through all the GEFS at 192 hours and 276 hours. The good news is that there are some decent charts in there. The less good news is that a West based set up is well represented across the suite. Only my opinion but a west based set up is a game over scenario if it happens because it usually ends up with pressure rises over Iberia. At time of typing run is still coming out so I may be proved wrong!! So, my thinking FWIW is that its 50/50 based on output but given that climatology leans heavily towards the mild outcome it's probably 70/30 odds against right now. That might seem a gloomy prediction but it's much better than you would normally get. I do think the trend is west based though whilst hoping I'm proved wrong.

Yes. Also if you do get some snow on the ground then with lack of solar input and short days it can get very cold, very quickly. Personally, I'm far from convinced were going to see anything of note but if we did get lucky you don't need the uppers in December that become crucial in Mid Feb.

Also, if I had a pound for every time GFS has promised us something like this at day 10 and beyond, I'd be rich. If, however, I had a pound for every time this sort of chart made its way down to day 4, I'd be hardly any better off than I am now .

Just looked through the GEFS at 192 hours to take a quick snapshot. Not really any indication of anything notably cold to be honest. Maybe looking at a period of calm weather with near normal temps.

When its mild / warm all the time, shouldn't it be referred to as 'normal'? More of the same coming based on current output. Maybe in 10 days temps will moderate somewhat.

My expectations for this winter are close to zero. If I was offered a mild winter with a 1-week v cold easterly, I'd bank that now without hesitation. My gut feel is that this winter is going to be a record breaker for warmth across NW Europe. After the summer Europe has just seen I wonder if we have crossed a new line with background warming. The sheer scale of warm weather records being smashed is breathtaking and seems only to be accelerating.

No point in driving up a big hill to get any relief either because the higher you go the higher the temp with that warm air aloft. Snowdonia is a bit toasty!!!

This is starting to feel like the build up to the Beast from the East. Ever more crazy charts which were just too bonkers to happen and then............... A hot spell like this is just a matter of time. Even if it doesn't happen next week it will occur over the next few years. If we can get 16c in mid winter now, why not 40c plus in summer?

Also, if we did get this easterly the logical progression is the high sinks, winds switch more southerly and some early warmth occurs. Best of both worlds.

Might get busier in a few weeks when the summer crowd start to creep back. I've not posted since Dec as tbh I just wrote the whole thing off at that point. Logically, daft to write off Jan /Feb before Xmas but like others just had that gut feeling that it would be another snowless winter for many. Still a chance I guess but I think nothing will happen. Maybe a short / sharp hit in March? but tbh looking at the charts today nothing fundamentally has changed. Looking forward to summer now

The writing had been on the wall at least two days before as more and more charts started showing west based set up. It was always iffy at best hence why not everyone bought in. There were times when the three main models were showing cold but it was different evolutions and for me that's when I get very wary. Don't get me wrong though, I'm not being critical as my skepticism could just as easily been proved wrong had the cards fell differently. The old theory on here some years ago was get model agreement across the big three for three consecutive runs and then get interested. Easier said than done .

Not so sure it was the biggest failed cold spell for years, just the biggest of this year! He who must not be named used to scream snow and blizzards every other day. As someone else recently said on here there are some who have called 15 of the last 3 cold spells!

Your more likely to see Lord Lucan astride Shergar holding the pot of gold from the end of a rainbow in the company of a hundred Unicorns as you are to see that chart come off

After such a prolonged spell of summery temps I suspect that if these charts are correct (which they probably aren’t) there is very little chance of much settling snow. Probably would be one of those scenarios where the equivalent of 5 inches of snow falls but only deposits a thin slushy mess at best.

Would have been odd if it were otherwise. how else do you describe 16c in late December!

Predicting a mild winter these days is like betting on the Aussies (or anyone tbh) to beat England at cricket.

Much too early to write off any cold weather this winter. I do think we are nailed for a mild winter as a whole but that doesn’t preclude a week or so of colder weather. As for March, no thanks. If it’s the first week then fair enough but basically from that point onwards I want nothing but deep tropical southerlies I only say a mild overall winter is highly likely because we are a third of the way in and after this week we will be going some for the next two months to drag the overall winter into colder than average territory.

The big (and worrying) thing is that we are now seeing exceptional temperatures from non exceptional synoptics. Every time we get a deep SW now the temperature soars. We could see 15c or above for four consecutive days at the end of December!

Yes, agreed. Even on this chart heights remain stubborn over SE Europe and I'd imagine in practice getting the low to clear through to our SE would be hard. Chances of anything other than transient cold before 10th Jan are pretty remote in my honest opinion. Things change, but when this sort of pattern locks in its not good news. Looking at the next 5 days i can only imagine what the CET for December is going to be.

Unless you can remove heights from Iberia there is really no chance of any meaningful cold away from northern Scotland. Any northerly would be shunted away.

That is a truly astonishing chart. Just look at the sheer size of that plus 10c 850 airmass! Records would be smashed to pieces across much of Europe. Global warming is coming on fast

Yep, Tamara is a valuable contributor to the forum. Quite why every post has to feature a load of digs at the rest of the community is a mystery to me though as it just detracts from the otherwise excellent content.

Weirdly I recall saying some days back that I thought we would end up with set up (or similar) shown above. Usually in my experience once things go west based with the mid Atlantic low, the Iberian height rises follow as sure as night follows day. I certainly wasn't expecting to get there in quite the way we have though . Not sure it will last too long but time will tell. The Greenland high is not all its cracked up to be for us. I think from memory the 1987 freeze up had the PV parked over Greenland and plenty of examples over the years where we have had a monster high but us bathed in SWesterlies. Really, its better if the heights are between Iceland and Norway I suppose we can all get back to thinking about getting ready for Xmas now. For the last couple of days it was all beginning to look a bit meh anyway tbh as we had gradually lost the really cold air and it was becoming ever more marginal.

Even ignoring the fact that the opp is the warmest run, that chart doesn't exactly suggest we should by stocking up on emergency supplies down here. The very coldest members manage a couple of day around -7c at 850 but that's about it.