dingdong

As you were for first 72 hours or so, gfs then produces big 945 low at 90 hours, Ukmo has it at 965. Gfs stalls front fri/sat a little further west, don't see anything in these 2 models that would suggest anything other than snow for most. Met must have their reasons for dismissing the raw data but ad you can see here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=84&mode=2 it is still snowing well into Saturday for Wales and southwest areas DD

Yes Matty, roads here in Caerphilly were untreated. It seems councils were not prepared for the snow that fell. Andy, I agree with what you are saying, charts are good but a little caution is needed in order to prevent unnecessary panic. Looking good for snow Friday-Saturday, marginal at low levels and in the west. Thereafter it becomes very marginal under 250m Sunday/Monday but back edge snow and a resurgence if the block could prevail. Then (and only then) can we start thinking about 1947. I'm off out in the frozen roads to morrisons Cheers DD

Looks like snow Friday into Saturday.?rain Sunday night/Monday with back edge snow for a time. All models show milder air for start of new week, yes there is an increasing chance if snow before and after but a post like this really dies not warrant time. Do you have any charts to back your comments up because I can't see any. I understand the post may be a little tongue in cheeck but, There will be people reading this website who will believe what you say is true, when in fact it's not and cause unnecessary panic. You should work for the daily mail/express lol DD

Different to gfs, but not too different from Ukmo or ECM? Gfs is too progressive with regards to jet placement and realignment of the PV and for that reason I dismiss it.

Agree, v dangerous to dismiss gfs, however look at the vortex and jet profiles. It's just does not look right. Experience tells me this. Big danger really is secondary low Sunday/Monday pushes through the block, this is plausible, however I believe the block will hold firm and fight back DD

Keith, I was referring to the 850s rather than the 2m temps (sorry for confusion) I think we are going to do well over the next 2 weeks. Friday sure looks like a mouth watering prospect. Yes milder Sunday through Wednesday (still average or below) but looks like the Scandinavia block will really dominate thereafter. Cheers DD

What makes you think this? It looks marginal, yes, however the uppers associated with the low mean that if it starts as snow it will stay as snow (ECM:met 12z runs) if it starts as rain it is likely to turn to snow on the back edge. I think milder air will push in Saturday evening and Sunday but a quick return to colder weather from Tuesday/Wednesday is more likely than not DD

http://planet-watch.org/forum/showthread.php?t=37516&page=8 Patient chilli, it's early days yet. The models are toying with an omega block and if formed it could provide a lengthy cold spell. Later this week an undercutting low 'could' bring a bucket load if snow to the south, however this is not a certainty and not something i would currently bet my house on. The Atlantic tries to get in again (ECM) and although it makes little progress, warmer air does flood in. Temperatures still average or below especially north of the midlands. However the cold is set to pounce back westwards, this could set up a v cold end to jan with more snow chances. It's also worth noting how despite the easterly feed upper air temps have not been great across much of Europe. This chart http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif shows much better cold pooling to the NE, and should it spread SW as I think will lead to good snow opportunities towards the end of the month. I think we've got to play the long game this time, and if it plays out as we like we will be a lot happier than the short sharp shock we are used to from the 90s and 00s Cheers Swww Risk of significant snow Friday at around 70% for south of the midlands based on Ukmo/ECM/gem/gfs 12z output with ECM being best

Cars and grass now white. Whoooop. Will paste my thoughts that I posted on another site for coming 10 days now

Snow in caerphilly

I would agree a little sleety

As andy said, it's all to play for. If the low stays where Ukmo had it most of Wales will stay snow, this will the increase chances of a second substantial snowfall midweek as Ukmo 144 moves a tasty low se. We need the cold frigid air in place fir this to happen, otherwise we get to watch England enjoy the snow twice when we get our brollies out. Looking more and more promising as each run passes tho DD

The reason there is no frost is because the dew points were at about -8, and therefore the temperature would have to be lower than this to allow dew to form and freeze Cheers DD

rain in cardiff, as i travelled over caerphilly mountain it is a wet snow, in caerphilly town centre it is a sleety rain. its on the turn

dereck brockway just confidenly mentioned the S word for the 2nd half of january on the bbc wales weather so be patient, colder weather is coming (eventually)

i'm right at the foot of the mountain by the train station (where there was still snow from Thursday on the ground - on the mountain that is)

Still snowing here, heavy and its finally sticking on the roads and pavements too

started as wet snow then sleet and drizzle but it is turning to heavy drier snow here now (settled on cars and grass) Keep the faith jay, this was always gonna start as rain/wet snow/sleet as the cold air is wrapping around the low. This will mean that as the front passes through the more likely it is you get the snow cheers DD

sorry but that forecast stunk if you are looking for snow to fall and settle anywhere outside of Scotland. Nothing to get excited about in this part of the world. Forecast

just as the snow gets heavier again??? good luck in your exam

dowlais - not far from cwmdare (10-15 miles or so with similar asl) http://members.traff...Standard%20Time

snow just arriving at caerphilly

the bigger gflakes generally mean it is a very wet snow. I would expect the snow to become a drier type as we move into the evening thus allowing it to stick

it was always going to start as rain in the west, turning to snow later on

Hardly any thaw in caerphilly ghastly ukmo thus evening. Thankfully no support from GME and i'd be suprised if the ECM were to follow GFS is not as bad as it seems if you read between the lines. That low hitting Upper air temps of around zero with dew points at or just below zero and running into a very dry continental air feed spells plenty of snow imo though i'd expect back edge rain and sleet for low lying aresa in the far south and west cheers