dingdong

Think we may have somehow crossed our wires lol. agree totally with your last post. a very interesting week ahead imo

wans not calling you an idiot btw, just the the other poster. have not seen anything in the model output or (more importantly) fax and meto hi res updates that suggest any return to mild in the reliable future. it is wise to be careful who's model analysis you read as there are a lot of inaccurate interpretations. we are in a complex spell of weather and not all of the usual rules from the last 4 or 5 winters apply with regards to synoptical set up. I would be very surprised (using latest met faxes 96 and 120) if there was not a widespread fall of 20-30cm of snow over south wales, south west , and southern central england during the middle of this week. bring on the snow cheers DD

what the hell u going on about. the front is an upper warm front so it has absolutely no correlation to temperatures at ground level lol idiot!!!!!

TBF they clearly showed the snow on the graphics.The reason the BBC have not gone into too much detail re the snow in wales over the weekend is because the details are still sketchy.Only this afternoon has the heavy snow for the S East become apparrant. Indications for wales ATM are for a period of snow which will give 2-5 cm over a large area. As we move into tonight and tomorrow precip intensity will become clearer and should there be areas expecting 10cm + the relevant warnings will be made by the METO and this will be shown in the BBC forecasts. So in summary with the data available to the forecaster i think it was a decent efott

you have obviously made this statement without looking at any of the hi res MO output or any other of the models and ensembles.A breakdown to milder weather will have to happen eventually but we are at least 8 or 9 days away from this at the moment looking at the output.

What we have (despite some rather marginal dewpoints around 0c to -1c) is a warm front - which will always bring the heaviest precipitation out of warm and cold fronts (due to the nature of its formation). This forms and moves north into the M4 corridor, bringing some very heavy precipitation across england and wales, with the heaviest of anything falling just either side of the warm front. The warm front then sits along the M4 for 24-36 hours dumping a hell of a lot of snow across the southern half of the UK Now i can see why the Met Office are so concerned. We are talking very similar amounts possible to Tuesday nights snowfall, but across a much wider swathe. Obviously at 3-4 days out we have to wait at least another 24-36 hours before we can talk specific details with regards to snow and how much, but its got to have shown fairly consistently in the met office mid range output for them to put it in the FAX charts and have a warning out so early. The biggest indicator of what happens with their output will be if the warnings for sunday spread any further north or south. The further north this system the more marginal it becomes

i'd say clevedon is in the firing line any minute now

give it time jay, proper heavy stuff has only just arrived in caerphilly 5 miles north of you.it is on its way

RCT are normally quite good at clearing the roads so expect them soon.Fair play to caerphilly council also they are always spot on.every time it snows you can always get up caerphilly mountain from this side no problem - until you leave the council boundry and hit cardiff.getting down the mountain and into cardiff is never as easy. shame on cardiff city council

just getting going in caerphilly.couple of gritters followed by ploughs just left the depot down the road from me and ruined my picture postcard street

SHOWTIME!!!!!

moderate snow in caerphilly again

good site for various webcams to check snow across the uk and the world http://www.snow-cams.com/UKcams.htm'>http://www.snow-cams.com/UKcams.htm http://www.snow-cams.com/

thats because its a developing low, hense the eye and the swaithe around it. u dont see a developing low like that often round these parts i tell ya

heavier snow again in caerphilly town centre nice covering on webcam http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/southeastwales/hi/people_and_places/newsid_8418000/8418169.stm (from what you can make out)

it's tring its very very best to snow here in caerphilly The heaviest swathe of it certainly looks to be from surrey up the west of london then running along and to the north of the M4 right through to south wales - in this swathe 15-25cm by morning in some parts, and more snow through the morning This forecast is just developing all the time

Also new NAE on the way out now http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201001051800&VAR=prty&HH=6&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO= look at 6 and 12 hours on 18z then compare to 12 and 18 hours on 12z and you can see the heavier snow encroaching more on the south east of wales

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/598.../page__st__306 if you scroll down about half way to ian furgusson post and click on the piccy you can see the meto modified nae compare to the meto radar at 21:00 and things do seem a tad further west (20 miles or so) the area of snow over the welsh borders is also slightly more active and further west which bodes well for s wales cheers DD

started snowing in caerphilly

Barb, i have a feeling this will be progged slightly further west as the secondary low links up with the main low somewhere near the Bristol Channel (not as far west as was suggested yesterday) This theory has some support from the latest NAE and will be interesting to see what other models think as they coe out

so close on the 12 NAE do not rule out widespread 5-10cm of snow in south wales just yet http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201001051200&VAR=prty&HH=12&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO= http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201001051200&VAR=prty&HH=18&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO= A very slight shift to the west (very slight) Still all to play for imo DD

sun trying to melt my snow in caerphilly. only got 1 cm. i'm still holding out hope for tonight http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/ (double click on map to keep zooming in)

snowing again in caerphilly. with regards to potential snow tonight i spotted this, which although completed in some sort of ms paint explains the situation nicely http://www.planet-watch.org/forum/showthread.php?p=317871#post317871

stopped in caerphilly (tho more aboout on radar by the looks) got 1-2cm in the town. no problems to report on mountain road (into cardiff) at the moment either

snow falling in cearphilly after a very brief (5-10 minute) period of sleet