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Joe Bloggs

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    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    The vectors always looked like a Cheshire event. Sucks for those further N but it rarely snows here so I’ll take it.

    I didn’t analyse it clearly enough then as when the flow veered westerly I thought south Manchester/north Cheshire would be the sweet spot as it usually is in  a WNW’ly. 
     

    Good event for Cheshire, glad this one delivered for you guys. 

    • Like 3

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, PennineMark said:

    I've got a feeling it's going to another one of those days with regards to snow. Showers from the NW are struggling to get past the M6 at Morecambe/Lancaster let alone travel another 30 miles inland and drop any snow. Unless there's a marked uptick in energy or instability this could turn out to be another dud from the NW in a long line of duds. Something that seems to have happened a fair bit in recent years. If it was rain you can guarantee it'd be pouring down outside.

    Wasn’t meant to get going properly for a little while. 
     

    You could be right but let’s judge later 

    • Like 7

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Maz said:

    The "convective concepts" say lake effect precipitation will happen today and into tonight.   Analysis of temperatures at different layers say that will be snow away from a limited marginal area near the coast.  The black art is working out how topographical features will influence the flow and where that will lead to convergence zones and streamers, and how they will move.  

    Stockport/South Manchester often seems to do well in these situations. 

    • Like 3

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Decent convevtion 5pm onwards. Putting it out there a decent risk of a disruptive streamer establishing from Wigan down to Buxton with potential for 4-8cm in a narrow band.

    Shades of 30 Jan 2019 perhaps. 
     

    Looking good for later. The latest dew points forecast by GFS look fine, the MetO raw data shows temps up to 2C in Manchester after midnight though. 
     

    I don’t think lack of precipitation will be a problem , the only potential spoiler is rain/sleet at low levels . 

    • Like 2

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

    Morning Joe

    Looks like the Snow showers are around the Flint area dropping towards Chester at the moment wind due to back more To NW-West flow this afternoon

    No more snow here overnight woke up to a light dusting which was all frozen solid. 

    Morning mate 🙂

     

    was just confused as the radar just showed a heavy shower hitting the Wirral head on! 

    • Like 2

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Joe Snow said:

    The Cheshire Gap is one to watch over the next few days particularly late tomorrow & tomorrow night. Hopefully we see the Irish Sea kick into life and deliver some snow. Usually do quite well out of the setup in the right circumstances - S Cheshire needs more of a NW flow than N Cheshire, Merseyside & Gtr MCR ❄️ 🥶 

    Looks to me like Merseyside/G Manchester/North Cheshire will get snow from tomorrow evening through the early hours, (rain on the coast perhaps) the risk transferring further south as the night goes on with south Cheshire best placed towards dawn onwards as the flow veers more NW’ly 

    • Like 7

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

    Definitely depends on where you are in the city. Here in the east of the city an easterly is king. 

    Oh absolutely. Once you’re 100m+ up in the eastern parts of Greater Manchester you’re in a different world to Trafford, City centre etc. 

    At some point I’d love to see a proper frontal snow event that gives us an amazing deep sustained snowfall but they are so so rare here. 

    • Like 4

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

    Yeah between 10 and 12 inches. Absolutely amazing evening. 8 hours constant heavy snow never seen anything like it before and don't know when I will again. Who says Irish Sea can't deliver if things are right.

    Sounds incredible. Yeah the Irish Sea can deliver some epic snow, just need the right conditions. 👍

    I’m not around on Tuesday night sadly, so whatever we get I’ll miss. My one concern is some of the high-res models are showing it not quite cold enough. This is why I’d love to find some wet bulb data, I always look for a freezing level below 300m . I see UKV has backed off on any lying snow too. 

    • Like 2

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

    I remember well the 4th/5th January 2010 perhaps for slightly different reasons than many of you. It went like this in Crosby:
    In the evening around 3°C with heavy rain and sleet showers.
    Convection becoming more vigorous towards midnight with heavy hail/ graupel and several rumbles of thunder after 11. Almost constant graupel and sleet for a few hours after that and more rumbles of thunder in the early hours.
    A 1 cm covering of slush was evident on the way to school at 9 am. Just after I got to school it started to snow and continued light to moderate all day until I was back home again. Had about 2 inches. It seems like that was hardly anything compared to what the rest of the region got; the curse of the coast. Still, we made up for it the following December with 12 inches. 

    Will always remember 4th/5th Jan more for the vigorous convection rather than the snow. Had more snow the previous week the day before Christmas Eve when got about 4 inches from a southerly tracking low. 

    You had 12 inches in December 2010? I had no idea the coast had that much! 

    • Like 2

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

    A cold damp morning but no sign here of any white stuff or ice on the roads / pavements.

    Unless we are talking about different events, the snowfall of 5th/6th Feb 1996 was caused by an innocuous-looking occluded (or was it warm?) front moving in from the West and hitting cold air head-on along the West coast. There had been a bitingly cold Easterly up until then, but the front rather than the Easterly was responsible for the very heavy snowfall over 24 hours and, looking East from Blackpool after the snow stopped, it was difficult to spot any snow on the Fells east of the M6. 

     

     

     

    Correct, one of the best snow falls the NW has ever had, especially Merseyside, west Cheshire, the Fylde coast and South Cumbria. 
     

    The Jan 96 easterly that Kev mentioned was convective showers from the east - often they can deliver for eastern parts of the region but not always. 

    • Like 4

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

    I think from memory the Jan 10 event in Manchester came from a northerly but unusually came south across the UK with a massive low. It was the same in Dec 62. The only easterly that bought a lot of snow that I can remember was I think 1996 in the Jan or Feb. We had 5 inches then. Dec 62 in manc  centre was 6 inches and 9 inches in places out of the centre. Its rare though and always was

    I didn’t know Manchester had so much snow in December 1962! 

    There was a front moving down from the north in Jan 2010 but as Kevin said it was Irish Sea showers that formed the bulk of the snow in the early hours . A slack very cold westerly. 

    • Like 2
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