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Joe Bloggs

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    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Gary L said:

    Looking good Joe! I haven't lived in Saddleworth for a long time but in my 7 years here I've worked out we need more of WNW to hit Saddleworth's sweet spot! Keeping a close eye on it but looks like we're in with a good chance.
     

    Manchester (particularly South) often does very well in these situations - especially if they get hit overnight/early morning!

    Yes absolutely, fingers crossed for you! 

    • Like 4

    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Looking at the output , objectively and realistically - I’d be gobsmacked if the entire region missed out on any lying snow next week. 
     

    Virtually all of the models show a NW’ly flow to some degree, just with minor variations. I suspect Cheshire will be the sweet spot, but many of the models have the wind backing WNW’ly so perhaps larger parts of the region could be in play. 
     

    I note what @Kasim Awan mentioned about the trough - hopefully if this kills off the shower activity it could be benefit us with more organised snow from the north, this has often happened in cold spells of the past, they don’t always die a death when they move south, sometimes the opposite happens. 
     

    One little hazard - GFS has us in a little milder sector on Tuesday night. It doesn’t coincide with any precip on this run but worth watching. @Kasim Awan and @Chris.R definitely keep us updated with short term prospects next week! 

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Yes but with a slack flow the coverage of these features will be relatively poor, slack flow also means they will struggle to develop into larger features. December 2022 and November 2023 spring to mind. We need the low from Iceland & the one to our South to make better inroads for anything really significant otherwise a slack flow will just generate a lot of very dry cold weather with snow limited to a few coastal areas.

    Hey Kasim 🙂 

    In my experience slack flows are actually better at generating convective showers and streamer features? It’s an ingredient I look for when trying to judge if we’ll get westerly snow showers here. If there’s a strong wind it’s often a fail.

    Anyway - the uncertainty remains this morning. Hopefully ECM has this pattern nailed. 

    • Like 5

    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

    The fact yet again we can't seem to get a sustained Greenland high is proving to be very frustrating. Is it climate change or something else, can't really blame the shortwaves on this one really! I bet in the 70s and 80s that would produce an epic northerly/NNW'ly with instability all over. Now it's just a glancing blow albeit the air under it is still quite cold but becoming a blink and you miss it affair.

    More hints the Atlantic is coming into play also but that's still a long way off but hopefully the details can improve again because barring the threat of frontal snow and maybe some snow showers in northern and eastern Scotland, the snow risk does look fairly minimal so far.

    We’re looking at quite small windows.

    Annoyingly, rather than a clean cold northerly from Sunday onwards we get some slightly milder air on Monday which may even bring some rain showers. Looks like some form of feature  will move down from the north Tuesday night - maybe bringing some snow on the back edge (major uncertainty here) behind this is some very cold air and we could get some NW’ly snow showers . How long that lasts depends on how quickly the great Midlands snow storm moves in. 🤣🤣 

    Worst case scenario is for the low to be far enough north that it cuts off convection for our region but not far enough to give snow. Basically what the 18z GFS shows! 

    I think we are far more likely to do well via fronts and little features from the north and north west personally, which won’t be well modelled until very short notice. 
     

    Fingers crossed for upgrades tomorrow. 

    • Like 8

    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

    I got to say I'm dissapointed with how things have manifested especially with the initial northerly. Going to be a dry stable northerly as high pressure to the west is too close so no instability but it should be crisp and sunny. I did thought this was the most likely but yesterday's UKMO did briefly promised something a little better.

    This also means less room for error for the cold hanging on as winds switch to a WNW'ly  as the northerly collapses which whilst this was going to happen seems to be happening a good 12 or so hours quicker too me.

    Can we get the reload, I have my doubts but this would be my preferred choice over the threat of frontal snow which going by the ECM may not even bring frontal snow as the air is too warm.

    Just kinda feel alot of chasing for an outlook where snow looks quite limited for our region so far.

    The Greenland heights appear to be eroding too quickly really.

    Some of the output was really good earlier today, hopefully we will see some upgrades again. 

    • Like 5

    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

    But nothings a given this far out….  troughs and streamers are possibilities… where and when isn’t known… the charts for systems moving from west/south west are a week away…  long time in meteorology 

    I’m referring to a system moving through the Midlands btw with us on the snowy northern flank. 👍 never happens. 🤣

    • Like 6

    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    4 troughs behind the cold front! Imagine if each one hit us... looks ripe for polar lows, getting carried away! Quite a classic chart with the 510 dam line in the middle of the 4 troughs. The second cold front should bring snow to modest high ground, but probably light and patchy.

    Remember Dec 2 last year, sorry I kerp going on about it, a foot of snow here in not especially cold uppers, these type if synoptics in the heart of winter can deliver a mighty snowy punch to the NW should disturbances occur. 

    Very true. Fingers crossed eh. Looking good , especially if something like 06z GFS verifies (around day 7). 

    • Like 6

    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Joe Snow said:

    Midlands look to be a very good place to be for a high impact snow event next week. We in NW England look good too for snow more generally but we might be on the edge as it is on systems to the south pushing this far north. Hoping some short notice features pop up with some surprises too🤞🥶❄️ 

    Yes the flow does back to the NW too at times so no doubt there could be some surprises off the Irish Sea - however I am spotting some mild sectors coming into play - example from MetO run below 

     

    image.thumb.png.e18efb7a7a2f0b2fa0e131e47cd0002c.png

    • Like 6
    • Insightful 1
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