Joe Bloggs
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Morning all. Here in South Manchester I'm expecting snow this afternoon through tonight, but then snow turning to rain fairly quickly tomorrow, washing any lying snow away. Given all the data I can see NAE/MetO/GFS I just can't see this being an all snow event west of the Pennines I'm afraid, especially if you are west of the M6. Once dewpoints rise above freezing that's it in terms of snow, and they're forecast to do so, from the west, early tomorrow. The data could all be wrong, but I'd be surprised.
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I think it could just be a lull by-tor (judging by the radar) , in fact, as I type, the big flakes are back!
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Thanks for the warm welcome back!
It is turning to snizzle here now for the time being, think it could well be sleep time
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Room for an ex Edinburgh resident anyone??!! I am visiting friends and it looks like I have timed my trip perfectly. I'm in Meadowbank, Edinburgh, and it is coming down very nicely! Nothing especially heavy but nice to see, and settling on all surfaces.
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Just saw a flash of lightning from my 10th floor flat in Castlefield, Manchester City Centre. Shame it isn't colder with all the activity to my west..
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Sleet and sometimes some sopping wet flakes here in Leith. Impossible to imagine anything settling though. given how wet the ground is here ... but higher parts of town should get something. Airport reporting 1c/DP0c so conditions are right for many at only relatively slight height. In-laws up at Liberton at 400ft , should be scraping it off the car before morning. Not Leith though !
Evenin!
A mixture of rain sleet and snow at the Tollcross end of the meadows just now. I'm hoping for some proper snow before the night is out.
I wouldn't worry about having wet ground.... people often say that. If it is cold enough and the snow is heavy then it will settle.
Hmmm... +1C/0C... wouldn't take much....
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This should stay as snow through today... turning to rain in Edinburgh/SE Scotland overnight, but stay as snow elsewhere.
Places further west and north could see this lasting till Friday, with a renewed snow risk even here by then!
It's a very messy snowfall here... coming down thick and fast horizontally on a strong easterly, but there are lots of drips. Not nice fluffy snow to be playing out in!
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Proper stuff here in Dalry, Edinburgh.
<p>
Heavy horizontal snow settling on all surfaces on a strong easterly.
<p>
Woop woop.
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I see the uncertainty continues, but we have some localised coastal warming which has led to dewpoints of 0.6C though temperature is 2.7C and a shower of incredibly light sleety snizzle (ok it was probably drizzle!). NAE upgrade, NMM downgrade temperature wise but of course I don't trust it in that respect so we'll just have to wait and see what happens. I don't see the front fizzling out - no model shows this, especially not with moisture picked up from the estuaries http://expert.weathe...022418_2312.gif
Lucky that the less cold uppers hit at night, so maybe still staying as snow for most with any altitude or are reasonably inland (borderline for me as always though!) but colder uppers look like sinking a bit further south by morning http://expert.weathe...022509_2312.gif
Precipitation totals over the next 48 hours look good, around 25mm in the Edinburgh area and 11mm across Fife, though slight adjustments will make the difference between who has the most snow - my bet is on By-Tor........
Nah, the borders look pretty good for snow, as does the central belt and inland Fife and Perthshire, and Glasgow could easily see four inches IMO, because any modification is going to be this side of the mate.LS
So to clarify, you think it could be a sleety mess in Edinburgh?
Latest MetO update supports rain on the east coast, I ain't counting my chickens.
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Could be right on the margin JB and could be the traditional Edinburgh split. Rain/sleet Leith/Granton... Snow Meadows/Morningside/Craighlockhart/Liberton etc
Worst case (if it comes at all) I'm only a 44 bus ride from Leith to the higher snowier south-west side of town.
If we're not blowing an ENE gale sourcing nothing other than maritime 3C air temps and +0C dew points (and assuming we have at least -5c upper cold) then I think we have a shot at something happening, which is all you can ever ask for really...
Same as yourself, fingers crossed !
Edit: just seen Joe Shmoes post. Agree with the higher parts/south-west of town being favoured. Prepared to stick my neck out on a pure hunch that it'd be more widespread city-wide. Another plus, the ground is frozen hard which always help the damn stuff to stick to begin with. If theres sufficient intensity in the precipitation then could well be a covering. If it just snitters a bit though it'll be the usual damp squib.
Well the latest Beeb forecast had the snow dying as it reached the Borders. Now there's another possibility.
Hehehe we'll know soon enough.
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Cold and bright here too this morning. Just a little cloud to the SW. -7.8C in my garden was the coldest since the 8th Jan.
Hope tomorrow is not a sleety mess on the East coast?
Unfortunately judging by the NAE quite a few areas on the east coast look set to receive sleet or rain, and the Met Office text forecast supports that. There's even a chance Edinburgh might get rain.
Fingers crossed though!
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I really hope this won't be a sleety mess here in Edinburgh...
The Met Office are forecasting rain for the east coast....
Rain in Edinburgh but snow in Glasgow =
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Yes a rather marginal week with it gradually getting milder.
It's been a funny month and indeed Winter, remarkable for it's cold and yet extraordinary in the fact that snow has been in low supply. Disappointing really considering the cold air over us.
All the while the sun is getting stronger and Spring's fightback is slowly beginning
In fairness, Manchester and parts of the NW have had its best snow since 1981, and parts of the south of England since 1963.
I guess you are probably talking from an Irish perspective, but this side of the Irish Sea it has been impressively snowy really, as well as consistently cold.
Sorry off topic..
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Tuesday looks like rain for most too..., turning mild in the SW.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn784.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn7810.png
Snow definitely possible though across 'M62' corridor type area though, including Manchester and also parts of NI. By Wednesday the risk is pushed even further north, being reserved for parts of Scotland, it even turns too mild in the Central Lowlands by midday Weds.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1082.png Ouch, maybe a mild outlier?
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Tomorrow's snow now appearing on the 12z GFS
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn184.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn244.png
Northern limit appears to be North Lancs/South Cumbria area
Judging by the projected dewpoints, Wales looks set to have a snow turning to rain setup, best chance of snow towards the NE towards Ruthin etc, by midday snow only likely Manchester northwards, anywhere south probably seeing rain.
By 18z tomorrow however there is some residual stuff left across the South Midlands/Eastern England, could be some snow on the back edge of the front.
Into Monday, precipitation only reaches Southern England now, not even reaching South Wales. Risk of temp snow is again aligned up with the northerly limit of the front, possibly the M4 corridor type of area, however by midday it looks like rain for just about everywhere as sub zero projected dewpoints become reserved for Wales, Northern England and Scotland...
It's only the GFS, so given the current disagreement amongst the output, possibly best to wait for the NAE and the UM before making too much judgement.
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Meh, it's all breaking up over the Forth.
Oh well can't win em all
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Just started snowing lightly in the Burgh..
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Latest 17:30 radar frame has updated. Heavy snow seems to have reached Leven, Fife, and it's heading SW'wards. [
]I'd say an Edinburgh evening snowfall is fairly imminent now and I'd expect some snow within the next 2 hours.
Not necessarily much but we'll see.
MetO warning has updated and now inclues Edinburgh and Midlothian.
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Touch and go for Edinburgh....
If we missed it all it'd be incredibly unlucky.
I think it might skirt just to our east... grrr...
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Looking at the latest radar, I'm going to stick my neck out...
I reckon Edinburgh and the Lothians will get some snow out of this clump of showers to the NE. Probably won't be a lot, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a fair old covering out towards East Lothian and parts of the Borders. Edinburgh may catch a few showers but will tend to be on the periphery.
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I'm really hoping that lump of snow manages to make it down to Edinburgh this evening/overnight....
NAE has it brushing past us. Having said that the MetO Invent output looks a bit better.
We'll see.
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I can't believe Lomond Snowstorm is 15
...!I was under the impression you were 30+ judging by the quality of your posts!!! That's a compliment btw.
Nice outlook for Scotland this week. I wouldn't normally expect anything in Edinburgh but dewpoints/surface temps do look like being low enough for snow, not to mention 850's and thicknesses. All we really need is the precipitation, preferably falling overnight.
We'll see.
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The ECM and UKMO look better this evening whilst the GFS after carrying the baton for so long decides to drop it metres from the finishing line!
It's funny now the euros increase the potency of the easterly the GFS decides to bring in a slacker flow.
Overall though some good output, although in the latter timeframe it would be good to see the models edge the block further east to stop the Scandi trough from coming too far west.
Hi Nick, it should be noted that the 12z GFS op is actually a bit of an outlier in that respect...
Looking at the control run for instance http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-132.png?12 , looks very good for a potent easterly, as does the majority of the ens members.
Mean - http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-132.png?12
The ECM and UKMO look better this evening whilst the GFS after carrying the baton for so long decides to drop it metres from the finishing line!
It's funny now the euros increase the potency of the easterly the GFS decides to bring in a slacker flow.
Overall though some good output, although in the latter timeframe it would be good to see the models edge the block further east to stop the Scandi trough from coming too far west.
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I still have a nagging feeling the models arent done with this though and can see us ending up HP dominated
Blasphemy.
Hope you're wrong. You may well not be though!
Nah, the borders look pretty good for snow, as does the central belt and inland Fife and Perthshire, and Glasgow could easily see four inches IMO, because any modification is going to be this side of the mate.
...!
North West England Regional Discussion 11/01/13 ------->
in Regional
Posted
If you're not expecting any rain from this event then I think you are setting yourself up for a fall, especially given your location. Virtually all the data suggests dewpoints rising above freezing tomorrow in western parts of NW England. Yes, this could prove to be incorrect, and there may be a western correction to the disturbance at the last minute, but I have my doubts.
My advice would be to enjoy any snow you get before bedtime tonight.
The NAE is not the be all and end all, but just for arguments sake - the 6z NAE for 12z tomorrow has a 2m temp of +3C, and a dewpoint of +2C (Warrington area). IF this proves correct it isn't conducive to snow.